Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat face Tom Thibodeau and the New York Knicks on Monday evening at Kaseya Center. The long-time rivals square off in Game 4 of a second-round series, with Miami hosting the 2023 NBA playoff matchup. The Heat hold a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series after a Game 3 win at home on Saturday. Immanuel Quickley (ankle) is listed as doubtful for New York. Jimmy Butler (ankle) and Caleb Martin (back) are listed as questionable for Miami, with Tyler Herro (hand) remaining out.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as 4.5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 209 in the latest Knicks vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Knicks picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Knicks and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Knicks vs. Heat:

  • Knicks vs. Heat spread: Heat -4.5
  • Knicks vs. Heat over/under: 209 points
  • Knicks vs. Heat money line: Heat -190, Knicks +158
  • NYK: The Knicks are 28-16-1 against the spread in road games
  • MIA The Heat are 18-26-2 against the spread in home games
  • Knicks vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks

Why the Knicks can cover

New York's defense provides a strong baseline for the team's overall performance. The Knicks are allowing only 106.3 points per 100 possessions so far in the playoffs, a mark that would be elite by regular season standards. New York's opponents are shooting only 43.7% from the field and 31.9% from 3-point range while averaging 22.1 assists per game against the Knicks. In the series against Miami, the Knicks are allowing only 38.0 points in the paint, 7.5 fast break points, and 7.0 second-chance points per game.

In the regular season, New York led the NBA in allowing 45.9 points in the paint per game, and the Knicks posted top-five marks in opponent shooting (46.2%) and fast break points allowed (12.7 per game). The Knicks also finished with top-10 marks in defensive rebound rate (72.7%) and second-chance points allowed (13.3 per game), and New York was No. 5 in the NBA in both win-loss record (24-17) and net rating (+1.5) in regular season road games. See which side to back at SportsLine.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami's defense has been excellent dating back to the regular season, and the Heat held the Knicks to only 86 points on 34% shooting in Game 3 on Saturday. The Heat project to continue operating at a high level on defense, but Miami's major difference has come on offense in the postseason. The Heat are scoring well over 1.17 points per possession in the playoffs, making 48.2% of field goal attempts and 39.2% of 3-point attempts.

Miami is averaging only 13.0 turnovers per game, including only 10.0 turnovers per contest against New York, and the Heat are boosting efficiency at the free throw line. The Heat made 28 of 31 free throw attempts in Game 3, and Miami finished No. 2 in the NBA in free throw accuracy (83.1%) during the regular season. From there, Miami's defense takes over, and the Heat are giving up only 105.3 points per 100 possessions to the Knicks in the first three games. See which side to back at SportsLine.

How to make Heat vs. Knicks picks

The model has simulated Knicks vs. Heat 10,000 times and is leaning Over on the total, projecting five players to score at least 18 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Knicks? And which side hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has gone 71-38 on its NBA picks, and find out.