The Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers get together for an Eastern Conference tilt on Saturday evening. State Farm Arena hosts the matchup in Atlanta, and the Hawks are 20-15 at home this season. Atlanta also sports a 36-37 overall record and a rest advantage in this game, with Indiana playing on the road for the second straight evening. The Hawks list Trae Young (calf) and De'Andre Hunter (knee) as questionable. Jalen Johnson (hamstring/groin) remains out for Atlanta. Kendall Brown (tibia) is out for Indiana. The Pacers list Chris Duarte (ankle), Tyrese Haliburton (ankle), Bennedict Mathurin (ankle) and Myles Turner (back) as questionable. 

Caesars Sportsbook lists Atlanta as a 10-point favorite at home for this 5 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 240.5 in the latest Pacers vs. Hawks odds. Before making any Hawks vs. Pacers picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 23 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 69-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Pacers vs. Hawks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Hawks vs. Pacers:

  • Pacers vs. Hawks spread: Hawks -10
  • Pacers vs. Hawks over/under: 240.5 points
  • Pacers vs. Hawks money line: Hawks -455, Pacers +345
  • IND: The Pacers are 7-6 against the spread with no rest
  • ATL: The Hawks are 16-19 against the spread in home games
  • Pacers vs. Hawks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers

Why the Pacers can cover 

The Pacers have a friendly offensive matchup in this contest. Atlanta is in the bottom five of the NBA in defensive rating since the All-Star break, giving up 118.7 points per 100 possessions in 14 games. The Hawks are also No. 24 in the league in allowing 48.3% shooting to opponents, and Indiana leads the league with more than 18 fast break points per game. The Pacers are in the top five of the NBA in assist percentage, producing an assist on 64% of field goals and Indiana also generates nearly 27 assists per game. Indiana buries almost 14 3-pointers per contest, and the Pacers secure more than 28% of available rebounds on the offensive glass. 

On defense, the Pacers lean on havoc, with more than 15 takeaways per game and a top-10 mark in steals per game. Indiana is also in the top three of the NBA in blocked shots, and Atlanta is in the bottom tier of the league with only 22.1 free throw attempts per contest on offense.

Why the Hawks can cover

Atlanta has potential edges on both sides of the floor in this matchup. On defense, the Hawks are holding opponents to 35.5% shooting from 3-point range and only 23.5 free throw attempts per game this season. Indiana commits nearly 15 turnovers per game, a bottom-tier mark in the NBA, and the Pacers are also converting fewer than 47% of field goal attempts for the season. On offense, the Hawks are on fire right now, scoring 120.5 points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break. 

Atlanta's offense ranks in the top 10 of the NBA in offensive rating (115.0) for the season, and the Hawks are in the top six of the league in turnover rate (12.5%), assist-to-turnover ratio (1.92), and free throw accuracy (81.6%) in 2022-23. Quin Snyder's team also makes 48.2% of field goal attempts and averages 53.5 points in the paint per game, with the Pacers allowing more than 25 free throw attempts per contest on defense. Indiana also arrives with the league's worst defensive rebound rate, grabbing fewer than 69% of missed shots from opponents and allowing more than 15 second-chance points per game.

How to make Hawks vs. Pacers picks

SportsLine's model has simulated Hawks vs. Pacers, and it is leaning Under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 237 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who Pacers vs. Hawks? And which side hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.