The Dallas Mavericks welcome the Phoenix Suns to Texas for a high-profile showdown on Thursday evening. Dallas enters on the second night of a back-to-back after hosting the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday. Phoenix is on normal rest, with a 34-9 overall record and a 17-4 mark on the road. The Suns will be missing standout big man Deandre Ayton with an ankle injury.
Phoenix is listed as a two-point road favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the Over-Under, is 216.5 in the latest Suns vs. Mavericks odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Suns vs. Mavericks match-up, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 56-30 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Suns vs. Mavs, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Mavs vs. Suns:
- Suns vs. Mavericks spread: Suns -2
- Suns vs. Mavericks over-under: 216.5 points
- Suns vs. Mavericks money line: Suns -145, Mavericks +120
- PHX: The Suns are 13-8 against the spread in road games
- DAL: The Mavericks are 4-3 against the spread with no rest
Why the Suns can cover
The Suns are very good on defense, and the Mavericks have underwhelmed on offense this season. Dallas is scoring less than 1.1 points per possession, and the Mavericks are No. 25 in three-point accuracy and No. 24 in free throw creation. Phoenix is No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating, giving up 104.2 points per 100 possessions, and the Suns are elite in contesting shots. Opponents are shooting 43.6 percent from the field against Phoenix, with the Suns also holding opponents to 32.7 percent from three-point range for the season.
Phoenix is No. 4 in the NBA in assists allowed (22.6 per game) and No. 5 in fast break points allowed (11.1 per game), with 15.1 turnovers per game. The Suns are tremendous in forcing havoc on defense, with Phoenix producing 8.6 steals per game and converting those turnovers into points.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas takes care of the ball at an elite level on offense, committing fewer than 13 turnovers per game. The Mavericks also make 54 percent of 2-point attempts, ranking in the top 10 of the NBA, and the Suns are No. 26 in blocked shots. Phoenix is below-average on the glass on both ends of the floor, and the Suns also struggle to create free-throw attempts. The Mavericks are elite on defense, ranking in the top five and allowing fewer than 1.07 points per possession.
Dallas is securing more than 74 percent of available defensive rebounds, a top-five mark in the NBA, and the Mavericks are in the top eight in second-chance points allowed. The Mavericks are elite in preventing 3-pointers, No. 3 in the NBA, and Dallas also ranks in the top 10 in free-throw prevention and assists allowed.
How to make Mavericks vs. Suns picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 214 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Suns vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.