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The Golden State Warriors will try to remain unbeaten at home in the 2022 NBA playoffs when they host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals on Thursday night at 9 p.m. ET. Dallas was able to keep its season alive with a 119-109 win at home in Game 4 on Tuesday. Golden State put together a lackluster offensive performance, as Steph Curry scored a team-high 20 points. Oddsmakers are expecting Curry to have more of an impact on Thursday, as his over-under for total points is set at 27.5 in the latest NBA prop odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Klay Thompson has the second-highest over-under on the team at 18.5 following his 12-point effort on Tuesday. Will either one of Golden State's stars hit the over in a potential closeout game? Before making any NBA prop picks for Thursday night's game, you need to see the Mavericks vs. Warriors prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference finals of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 87-59 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns. 

With Golden State vs. Dallas on Thursday night (see tickets at StubHub), the model has evaluated the NBA player props and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.

Top NBA player prop bets for Mavericks vs. Warriors

After simulating Warriors vs. Mavericks 10,000 times, the model predicts that Dallas point guard Luka Doncic goes under 34.5 total points. Doncic finally got support from his teammates on Tuesday, as the Mavericks moved him to the wing in order to space out the Golden State zone defense. His teammates took advantage of the adjustment, with Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith combining to hit 10 3-pointers.

Dallas clearly has a better chance to beat Golden State when Doncic is not having to do all the heavy lifting. He has now gone under this point total in six of his last nine games. SportsLine's model is projecting him to score 31.4 points, which is a half-point difference from his playoff average this year (31.9). 

How to make NBA player prop bets for Warriors vs. Mavericks

In addition, the model has a plus-money prop payout on a player's performance you'll want to jump on. You need to see the model's analysis before making any Mavericks vs. Warriors prop bets.

Which Warriors vs. Mavericks prop bets should you back on Thursday night? And which stars are must-backs? Visit SportsLine now to see the top Mavericks vs. Warriors prop picks, all from the model that's up more than $2,100 on top-rated NBA picks.