I know this is kind of weird guys, but I'd like to start things off here this week by letting the Detroit Lions know that the NFL rule book allows you to have 11 players on the field at once during a game.
Apparently, when the Lions are on defense, they prefer to only have 10 players on the field, which might actually explain why they've been so terrible this season. For instance, the Lions only had 10 guys on the field for a play against the Vikings on Sunday and that ended up being an issue because they definitely could have used one extra guy to help stop Dalvin Cook, who outran Detroit's 10 defenders for a 70-yard touchdown.
Normally, I wouldn't think it's a big deal to make this mistake one time, but the Lions seem do it every week. Here are TWO different plays where they only had 10 players on the field in Week 8.
Now, I'm not saying the Lions should hire an elementary school teacher to count the number of players on the field on each individual play for the rest of the season, but I'm also not saying they shouldn't.
The good news for you guys is that I can count and I have 11 picks for you this week, or is it 10? Actually, it might be 14. I don't even know anymore. The Lions can't count. The Jets almost won a football game. Up is down. Right is orange. It's all confusing this week.
Anyway, let's get to the picks.
Actually, before we get to the Week 10 picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. Also, as you may or may not have heard, I'm now in charge of the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com. If you want to subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter your email address and if you do that, it will instantly make us best friends and I currently have plenty of openings for new best friend, so please sign up.
Since I'm now running a newsletter, you might be thinking that I'll be way too busy to podcast, but nope. If there are two things I'm never too busy for, it's podcasting and going to the pet store to look at cats.
On the podcasting end, for the rest of the season, I'll be joining Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson three days per week (Monday, Tuesday and Friday) on the Pick Six Podcast, which is our daily NFL podcast here at CBSSports.com. You can listen to Tuesday's episode below. The reason you're going to want to listen is because we spent way more time than we probably should have talking about whether the Patriots have any shot at making the playoffs.
If you don't have time to listen now, make sure to click here so you can subscribe and listen later.
Alright, let's get to the picks and remember that we're using the Lions' counting system this week, so if everything is off by one, blame them.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 10, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams cover in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,600 on its top-rated picks.
NFL Week 10 Picks
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 10? Pete Prisco and R.J. White join host Will Brinson to make their best bets and break down every game on the Pick Six Podcast; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Indianapolis (5-3) at Tennessee (6-2)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox/NFL Network/Amazon)
it took nine weeks, but I finally nailed a Thursday night pick. My Thursday drought finally game to an end last week when I picked the Packers to beat the 49ers. Sure, everyone picked the Packers to beat the 49ers, but that's not the point here. The point here is that I no longer have to wake up crying on Friday mornings knowing that I completely whiffed on another Thursday game.
As for this week's game, I live in Nashville and get to watch the Titans every week, which means I've now sat through eight games and let me just say that this is the most perplexing team in football. One week, they'll smash the seven-win Bills, but then the next week, they'll lose to the two-win Bengals. One week, they'll go toe-to-toe with the undefeated Steelers, but then the next week, they'll need a 49-yard field goal in the final minute to beat a one-win Jaguars team.
I'm telling you, sometimes this team plays down to the level of its competition, sometimes it plays up to the level of its competition, and other times, it just seems like they're making things up as they go along.
My one problem with the Titans is that they have zero pass rush. Last week, that didn't hurt them, because they were playing the Bears, who might be the only team in the NFL who can't take advantage of a defense that has zero pass rush. This week, they're going up against Philip Rivers, who should be able to pick the Titans apart if they can't get a rush on him.
Also, the Titans will be playing one of the best defenses in the NFL for the third time in four weeks. In the other two games -- against the Steelers and Bears -- the Titans were held under 300 yards both times. I think the Colts actually have a better defense than both Pittsburgh and Chicago, which isn't good news for the Titans.
As long as Philip Rivers doesn't have to make any tackles this week, I think the Colts can pull off the upset.
By the way, if you ever find yourself in a spot in life where you have to tackle someone, just do the exact opposite of what Rivers did there.
The pick: Colts 23-20 over Titans
Buffalo (7-2) at Arizona (5-3)
4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
I need to start off here by saying that there's no team I've been worse at picking this year than the Arizona Cardinals. Through nine weeks, I've gone 2-6 picking their games. I have no idea why I've been so bad, but I'm blaming it on the fact that I ran into Kyler Murray in a random back room at the 2019 NFL Draft.
I mean, look at the face he's making there. If that doesn't say, "I'm going to ruin your NFL Picks for the next decade," I don't know what does.
This game is probably my favorite matchup of the week, which is definitely something I never thought I'd say about a Bills-Cardinals game. This game is going to come down to two things, and it's the same two things that every Bills game comes down to every week: How well Josh Allen plays and how well Buffalo's defense plays.
Surprisingly, the Bills defense actually played well against Russell Wilson on Sunday, which makes me think they could have another big week. If they figured out how to slow down Wilson, I think we could see them do the same thing to Murray. As for Allen, if he's just 75% as good as he was against the Seahawks, then I think Buffalo wins here. Now, there's no guarantee that's going to happen because the Cardinals defense is 75 times better than Seattle's, but Allen has been so good this season that I've decided I should stop picking against him.
The pick: Bills 34-27 over Cardinals
Seattle (6-2) at L.A. Rams (5-3)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
This whole "Let Russ Cook" thing seems to be working out well for the Seahawks so far this season, except for that one small problem: While Wilson has been busy cooking in the kitchen, the rest of the house has been burning down. Every time I think the Seahawks defense has reached rock bottom, they somehow manage to get worse, and now, they have to play an offense they have no idea how to stop.
In the past five games between these teams, the Rams have gone 4-1 and they would be 5-0 if Greg Zuerlein had been able to hit a 44-yard field goal with 15 seconds left to play when these two teams met in Week 5 last season. The one reason the Rams have had so much success against the Seahawks is because Seattle hasn't figured out how to stop Sean McVay's offense. In those five games I just mentioned, the Rams have averaged 33.6 points per game, and they did that over the past two and a half years when the Seahawks defense was somewhat good. This year, they are not somewhat good. They aren't even the opposite of somewhat good, which is somewhat bad. They're worse than that. They've been so bad this year that they're on a pace to give up more yards than any other team in NFL history, and it's mostly happening because they can't stop the pass.
One thing that should work to the Rams' advantage in this game is that they'll be going into it off a bye, which means McVay has had an extra week to prepare for a defense that you don't really need an extra week to prepare for. I think we'll see Russ cook some on Sunday, but I'm not sure the Seahawks are going to have the rest of their house in order by then, so I'm taking L.A.
The pick: Rams 34-31 over Seahawks
Minnesota (3-5) at Chicago (5-4)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
I'll be honest, I can think of 17 things I'd rather do on Monday night than watch the Bears play. To be fair, it's not actually the Bears I don't want to watch, it's their offense. If you do plan to tune in for this game, I would highly suggest that you purchase at least three cases of Red Bull and hook yourself up to an IV filled with unregulated black market Colombian coffee because that's the only way you're going to survive four quarters of watching the Bears offense play. The Bears offense has been so bad this season that watching 11 actual bears try to run the team's offense would almost certainly be more entertaining than watching Nick Foles take any more snaps.
Of course, the good news for the Bears this week is that if there's one game this season where their offense can afford not to show up, it's when they're playing the Vikings. If Kirk Cousins has proven two things in his career, it's that he can't win on Monday nights and he can't beat the Bears.
Since signing with the Vikings in 2017, Cousins has gone 0-3 against Chicago and in those three losses, the Vikings have averaged just 12 points per game. Sure, Dalvin Cook has been the best running back in the NFL over the past few weeks, but I'm not sure that's going to matter here, because no team has been better at slowing Cook down than the Bears. In Cousins' three losses, Cook has averaged 28.7 yards per game. Basically, the Bears have been selling out on defense to stop Cook, which forces Cousins to win the game and Cousins never wins the game.
Also, Cousins is 0-9 in his career on Monday nights, which is the worst record of any quarterback in NFL history.
If the Bears do not beat Kirk Cousins on Monday Night Football (He is 0-9 on MNF) I will officially give up on the Bears for 2020.— JAKE LYNCH.. (@MONSTAHLYNCH) November 9, 2020
I'm on board with Jake. If the Bears don't win, I will also be giving up on them for the rest of the season, which might actually be a good thing, because it'd mean I don't have to watch their offense anymore.
The pick: Bears 20-17 over Vikings
Lock of the Week
Jacksonville (1-7) at Green Bay (6-2)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
As someone who lived in a warm-weather state for six years, let me just say there is nothing more traumatic than being forced to travel to a cold-weather city during the middle of November. There's a reason birds fly south for the winter and not to Green Bay.
The Jaguars are going to spend all week practicing in Florida and then they're going to land in Green Bay and it's going to be so cold that they're going to ask the pilot to turn the plane around and go back to Jacksonville. When the Jags land in Green Bay on Saturday, it's going to be 40 and rainy. On Sunday, the high is projected to be 50, which doesn't sound that cold, but when you're visiting from Florida, anything under 65 qualifies as an arctic chill.
In the past 10 games the Jags have played where the temperature was under 55 degrees, they've gone 0-10 straight-up and 0-9-1 against the spread. Also, they'll be starting a rookie quarterback (Jake Luton), they won't have their kicker (Josh Lambo) and they might not have one of the their best receivers (Laviska Shenault). This is all a recipe for a cold-weather disaster.
That being said, I should probably mention that I'm 27% concerned that this is going to end up bring a trap game for Green Bay. The Packers will be playing the Colts in Week 11, which means they could totally end up overlooking the Jaguars here, but even if that happens, I'm not sure Jacksonville is going to be able to keep it close.
The pick: Packers 31-17 over Jaguars
Lock of the week record: 9-2 straight up, 6-5 against the spread
NFL Week 10 picks: All the rest
Browns 27-23 over Texans
Lions 24-17 over Washington
Giants 26-23 over Eagles
Buccaneers 30-23 over Panthers
Raiders 31-20 over Broncos
Dolphins 30-27 over Chargers
Saints 30-20 over 49ers
Steelers 27-24 over Bengals
Ravens 27-20 over Patriots
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Raiders would beat the Chargers in a thriller and guess what happened? The Raiders beat the Chargers in a thriller. However, I do have to say, I almost feel guilty for picking this game correctly and that's because Chargers fans needed this win more than I did.
If I were to sit here and rank the most depressing teams in sports history, the Chargers would definitely be near the top. When they're not blowing a 17-point lead to the Saints like they did in Week 5, they're losing because a touchdown gets overturned on the final play of the game like it did against the Raiders on Sunday, and when that's not happening, they're losing because they let the other team throw a touchdown pass on the final play of the game like what happened against the Broncos in Week 8, and when that's not happening, they're blowing a different 17-point lead, but this time to the Buccaneers, like they did in Week 4. Guys, I'm not even sure what my point is anymore but I think it was that if you need something to be thankful for on Thanksgiving this year, just be thankful you're not a Chargers fan.
Worst pick: You might want to sit down, because this section could last for awhile due to the fact I had a lot of worst picks last week. I'll be honest though, I feel like I have a valid excuse for most of them. Actually, no I don't. Three teams that I picked to win last week lost by DOUBLE-DIGITS, including my Lock of the Week, which was the Seahawks beating the Bills. That pick directly led to the guy below calling me a clown on Twitter, which arguably was insulting to clowns.
Looking at that guy's tweet made me think that any time I whiff that badly on a "Lock of the Week" going forward, I should probably punish myself by dressing up as the clown emoji for an entire day. Does anyone know where to buy a clown emoji costume?
Finally, here's a quick look at the teams I've done well picking this year:
Teams I'm 8-1 picking this year (Straight up): Ravens, Chiefs, Jets, Steelers (7-1)
Teams I'm 7-2 picking this year: Giants, Texans (6-2), Jaguars (6-2), Chargers (6-2), Packers (6-2), Lions (6-2), Saints (6-2).
Longest winning streak: Jaguars, Lions, Jets (Five straight games correct for all three teams)
Longest losing streak: Rams, Seahawks (Three straight games incorrect). Fittingly, the Rams and Seahawks are playing this week.
Also, there's no team I've been worse at picking than the Arizona Cardinals (2-6), although I've also been horrible at picking the Rams (3-5) and Falcons (3-6). Every other team in the NFL is above those three teams.
Straight up in Week 9: 8-6
SU overall: 81-50-1
Against the spread in Week 9: 3-11 (YIKES)
ATS overall: 61-70-1
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably curled up with a bottle of tequila trying to forget about his record against the spread in Week 9.