NFL Week 11 odds, picks, how to watch and live stream: Eagles upset Patriots, Ravens edge Texans

Back to the drawing board. 

After four consecutive winning weeks (that included three straight 11-3 weeks), I struggled mightily in my Week 10 picks, failing to put together a winning record. The Steelers punished me for picking against them for the first time this season, while the Dolphins and Falcons pulled off upsets not many people saw coming. I also picked the wrong New York team coming out on top last Sunday, as it appears that the Jets are not mailing it in after a rocky start to the season. 

There's a slew of intriguing Week 11 games on the slate, as the NFL playoff picture is beginning to get into focus. The Browns -- fresh off their first win in five weeks -- host the red hot Steelers on Thursday night. Two of the NFL's best young quarterbacks -- Lamar Jackson and DeShaun Watson -- will face off in Baltimore. The Patriots, coming off their first loss of the season, will head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, who are back over .500 after consecutive victories. 

Ready or not, here are my NFL Week 11 picks and predictions. 

Pittsburgh (5-4) at Cleveland (3-6)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox, NFL Network fuboTVtry for free) 

Point spread: Browns -2.5 

Cleveland has lost eight straight games against the Steelers dating back to the 2015 season. While the Browns showed grit in Sunday's win over the Bills, Cleveland's lack of red zone success, along with the defense's inability to put pressure on quarterback Josh Allen, are among the reasons why I'm picking the Steelers to stretch their winning streak over their historic rival to nine games. Pittsburgh's defense, a unit that has forced 26 turnovers through nine games, should have success against Mayfield. James Conner, who rushed for over 100 yards in both of Pittsburgh's game against Cleveland in 2018, should be back after missing the past two games with a shoulder injury. 

The pick: Steelers 17, Browns 13 

Houston (6-3) at Baltimore (7-2) 

1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access

Point spread: Ravens -4.5 

This game features two of the NFL's most exciting quarterbacks in Jackson and Watson, who have a combined 33/10 touchdown/interception ratio this season. While both teams are pretty even as far as statistics are concerned, Houston's 26th-ranked third down defense and 30th-ranked red zone defense are two main reasons why I'm going with Jackson and the Ravens at home. The Ravens' offense is currently third in the NFL on third down conversions and fifth in the red zone. 

The pick: Ravens 24, Texans 20

Dallas (5-4) at Detroit (3-5-1)

1 p.m. ET (Fox, NFL Network fuboTVtry for free) 

Point spread: Cowboys -3.5

After losing at home to the Vikings on Sunday night, the Cowboys will take their frustrations out on a Detroit team that has just one win in its last six games. Dallas, who is sixth in the NFL in both scoring and in points allowed, will likely feed running back Ezekiel Elliott early and often against the Lions' 26th ranked run defense. Dallas' third ranked pass defense should be able to contain Matthew Stafford, who is enjoying a prolific season. 

The pick: Cowboys 27, Lions 20

New Orleans (7-2) at Tampa Bay (3-6) 

1 p.m. ET (Fox, NFL Network fuboTVtry for free) 

Point spread: Saints -5.5 

The Saints laid an egg last Sunday, losing by double-digits at home to the last place Falcons. New Orleans' inability to protect Drew Brees (who was six times on Sunday) was among the reasons why the Saints suffered the biggest upset of the season. While Shaquil Barrett (11.5 sacks) is definitely a force to be reckoned with, the Saints shouldn't have much of an issue against the Buccaneers and quarterback Jameis Winston, who has already thrown 14 interceptions this season. 

The pick: Saints 35, Buccaneers 27

Falcons (2-7) at Panthers 5-4) 

1 p.m. ET (Fox, NFL Network fuboTVtry for free) 

Point spread: Panthers -6

The Falcons showed life last Sunday, defeating the Saints on the road in Matt Ryan's return from an ankle injury. While the Panthers are the better team, I'll ride the hot hand and pick the Falcons pulling off the upset in Carolina. Kyle Allen, while still competent, has come back to earth a little after being blown out by the 49ers in Week 8. Allen will be outplayed by Ryan, who on Sunday will likely pass Warren Moon for 10th all-time in career passing yards. 

The pick: Falcons 24, Panthers 21

Jacksonville (4-5) at Indianapolis (5-4)

1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access

Point spread: Colts -3

After playing so well in Pittsburgh in relief of Jacoby Brissett, Colts quarterback Brian Hoyer struggled in Sunday's loss to Miami, throwing three interceptions as Indianapolis lost its second straight game. With Brissett expected to return from his knee injury, the Colts should be able to rebound against a Jacksonville team that scored just three points in their most recent outing; a 26-3 loss to Houston in Week 9. 

The pick: Colts 26, Jaguars 17

Denver (3-6) at Minnesota (7-3) 

1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access

Point spread: Vikings -10.5

While I think the Broncos -- who were on a bye last week -- should be able to make this game somewhat competitive, I can't pick against the home team after watching Minnesota defeat the Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday night. While Kirk Cousins has been lights out as of late, Minnesota's ability to run as well as to stop the opposition's running game should make them a formidable opponent down the stretch. 

The pick: Vikings 22, Broncos 15

New York Jets (2-7) at Washington (1-8) 

1 p.m. ET (Fox, NFL Network fuboTVtry for free) 

Point spread: Washington -1.5

The Jets showed life in Sunday's victory over the Giants. Sam Darnold completed 63.3 percent of his passes without throwing an interception, while New York's defense recorded six sacks and got a touchdown from safety Jamal Adams. I like the Jets winning again in D.C. against the Redskins and rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who is slated to make his first career home start. 

The pick: Jets 20, Redskins 17

Buffalo (6-3) at Miami (2-7)

1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access

Point spread: Bills -5.5

While the Bills have lost two out of their last three games, I'm picking them to rebound in Miami against a Dolphins team that has now won two straight games after an 0-7 start. The Bills will need more production in the passing game from Kyle Allen, who barely completed half of his passes while failing to throw a touchdown pass in Sunday's loss to the Browns. 

The pick: Bills 21, Dolphins 16

Arizona (3-6-1) at San Francisco (8-1) 

4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, NFL Network fuboTVtry for free) 

Point spread: 49ers -13.5 

The Cardinals, who played the 49ers tough at home back in Week 9, should be able to put forth another tough effort in San Francisco on Sunday. But like the first matchup, I don't see the Cardinals upsetting the 49ers, who will be hungry to atone for their first loss of the season. 

The pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 20

New England (8-1) at Philadelphia (5-4) 

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access

Point spread: Patriots -3.5 

Philadelphia's defense has been rather stingy lately, allowing just 27 total points during their two-game winning streak. While New England -- coming off a bye -- is surely motivated to play well after getting thoroughly beaten on the road against the Ravens in Week 9, I like the Eagles winning a home behind their surging defense and an offense that is starting to find its rhythm under quarterback Carson Wentz

The pick: Eagles 22, Patriots 20

Cincinnati (0-9) at Oakland (5-4) 

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access

Point spread: Raiders -10

The NFL's only winless team, the Bengals will be 0-10 following Sunday's game against the surprising Raiders, who are in the thick of things in the AFC playoff picture. Expect a big game from rookie running back Josh Jacobs against the NFL's 32nd-ranked run defense. 

The pick: Raiders 30, Bengals 17

Chicago (4-5) at Los Angeles Rams (5-4)

8:20 p.m. EST (NBC)

Point spread: Rams -6.5

Two of the NFC's most disappointing teams will look to get a momentum-turning win on Sunday night. While the Bears are coming off a home win against the Eagles, I like the Rams rebounding at home after a sluggish outing in Pittsburgh. Look for Todd Gurley to be vastly more involved in Sunday's game plan after having just 12 touchdowns in L.A.'s loss to the Steelers. 

The pick: Rams 20, Bears 13

Chiefs (5-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) 

Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Point spread: Chiefs -3.5 

Patrick Mahomes was his old self after returning from injury last Sunday, completing 72 percent of his passes for 446 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs' three-point loss in Tennessee. While he will have his work cut out for him (the Chargers' defense is ranked fifth in the NFL in pass defense), I think Mahomes will rise to the challenge while getting the Chiefs back on track. 

The pick: Chiefs 27, Chargers 24

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