We've officially entered the fourth quarter of the 2019 NFL regular season, and hopefully I saved my best string of predictions for the stretch run.
While a 10-6 record in my Week 13 picks is good enough to win the NFC East, I'm hoping this week's picks would be good enough to compete in, say, the NFC North, which means I need to at least rack up 11 wins, something I've been fortunate enough to do on several occasions this year.
To repeat that, I need to avoid getting tripped up once again by the Patriots, who failed me this past week. I will, however, strongly consider continuing to ride the hot hand of the Ravens and Steelers, a pair of AFC North rivals that keep coming through.
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Ready or not, here are my NFL Week 14 picks and predictions.
Dallas (6-6) at Chicago (6-6)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread:Dallas -3
The Cowboys, winless this season against teams that currently have a winning record, are in luck this week, as the Bears enter Thursday's game at an even 6-6. While the Bears have played well as of late -- winning consecutive games over the Redskins and Giants -- Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and the rest of the Cowboys will find a way to win in the Windy Cindy. The Cowboys' third ranked red zone defense should have success against Chicago's 28th ranked third down offense. This one has the makings of a throwback, defensive battle.
The pick: Cowboys 17, Bears 16
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Baltimore (10-2) at Buffalo (9-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Ravens -3
For the second straight week, the Ravens will face one of the NFL's best teams that also features one of the league's better rushing attacks. Baltimore's defense may give up some yards to Frank Gore, Devin Singletary and Josh Allen, but I don't believe the Bills' 15th ranked run defense will be good enough to contain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and a Baltimore rushing attack that has the most rushing yards through Week 13 since the 1975 Bills team that featured O.J. Simpson. Whether or not Jackson will be able to convert third downs will be key, as Baltimore's second ranked third down offense will face Buffalo's eighth ranked third down defense.
The pick: Ravens 24, Bills 17
Russell Wilson's Seahawks won again in prime time while Kirk Cousins and the Vikings fell short, and there's a lot to go over. Luckily, Will Brinson and the Pick Six Podcast Superfriends are here to break everything down, size up the top five coaches and more. Listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Washington (3-9) at Green Bay (9-3)
1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread:Packers -13.5
While the Redskins -- winners of two straight games -- should make this game closer than the spread would indicate, I'm not picking against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home in December against a 3-9 team. The rushing duo of Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice will keep things somewhat interesting, but Rodgers and the Packers' offense will get their points against a Redskins' defense that is ranked 30th in the league in third down efficiency.
The pick: Packers 28, Redskins 16
Denver (4-8) at Houston (8-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread:Texans -9.5
Like the Redskins, I expect the Broncos -- led by new starting quarterback Drew Lock -- to keep things somewhat interesting this week despite being a sizable underdog. But with the Titans right behind them in the AFC South division standings, the three-headed offensive monster of Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Carlos Hyde will lead the Texans to their third consecutive win.
The pick: Texans 23, Broncos 17
San Francisco (10-2) at New Orleans (10-2)
1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Saints -3
Picking against Drew Brees at home is always risky business, but I believe the 49ers will bounce back from last Sunday's loss in Baltimore with a statement win in New Orleans. The 49ers' second ranked red zone defense will make exploit the Saints' 23rd ranked red zone offense. On offense, San Francisco's rushing attack should help open things up for Jimmy Garoppolo, who could use a big game for his psyche after throwing for just 165 yards in Baltimore.
The pick: 49ers 26, Saints 23
Cincinnati (1-11) at Cleveland (5-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Browns -8.5
While Andy Dalton certainly gives the Bengals a chance at winning this game, the Browns' rushing attack, led by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, should have no issues running the ball against Cincinnati's 32nd ranked run defense. As long as the Browns don't beat themselves (something they've done on occasion this season), they'll beat their in-state rival while keeping their faint playoff hopes alive.
The pick: Browns 24, Bengals 17
Carolina (5-7) at Atlanta (3-9)
1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread:Falcons -2
After being whitewashed by the Falcons in Week 11, I see the Falcons having success on both sides of the ball on Sunday against a Panthers offense that is 28th in the NFL on third down efficiency and 27th in red zone defense. Look for a big game out of Matt Ryan, who threw for 311 yards and a score in Atlanta's previous victory over Carolina.
The pick: Falcons 30, Panthers 23
Detroit (3-8-1) at Minnesota (8-4)
1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread:Vikings -13
Less than a week after nearly upsetting the Seahawks in Seattle, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings will rebound with a nice win over the visiting Lions. Fans should keep an eye this week on Dalvin Cook's status for the game, as the Vikings' talented running back had to leave Monday night's game during the second half with an apparent injury. Regardless of Cook's status, the Vikings shouldn't have an issue completing the season sweep of Detroit.
The pick: Vikings 34, Lions 23
Miami (3-9) at New York Jets (4-8)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Jets -5.5
As horrendous as the Jets looked in Cincinnati, I'll go with Sam Darnold and the rest of the Jets rebounding at home on Sunday. New York should surely be motivated after losing to the Dolphins in Miami earlier this season. Le'Veon Bell, after a sluggish start to his time in New York, should have a decent day against a Dolphins defense that is ranked 31st in the league against the run.
The pick: Jets 21, Dolphins 18
Indianapolis (6-6) at Tampa Bay (5-7)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread:Buccaneers -3
The "Arians Bowl" features two teams that are going in opposite directions. While his own team is 1-4 in their last four games, Bruce Arians' new team, the Buccaneers, are 3-1 in their last four games. While a Colts' victory in Tampa Bay wouldn't surprise me, I'm riding with Arians and the Buccaneers on the strength of their prolific receiving duo of Chris Godwin (1,121 receiving yards, nine touchdowns) and Mike Evans (1,096 yards, seven touchdowns).
The pick: Buccaneers 28, Colts 24
Los Angeles Chargers (4-8) at Jacksonville (4-8)
4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Chargers -2.5
While their -14 turnover ratio troubles me, I'm picking the Chargers to end their current losing skid that includes three losses by a combined 12 points. While Los Angeles has been close in most of their games, the same can't be said about Jacksonville, who have lost their last four games by a combined 82 points.
The pick: Chargers 23, Jaguars 16
Kansas City (8-4) at New England (10-2)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Patriots -3
After being burned by the Patriots each of the past two weeks, I'm going with my gut and taking the Chiefs on the road in Foxborough. Patrick Mahomes' track record of success against the Patriots, New England's offensive issues and the Chiefs' newfound ability to play defense are the three main reasons why I'm taking the Chiefs.
The pick: Chiefs 27, Patriots 24
Pittsburgh (7-5) at Arizona (3-8-1)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Steelers -2.5
The Steelers are notorious for losing late season games on the road against teams with losing records. This time last year, Pittsburgh did just that, dropping a road game in Oakland in a game that helped keep the Steelers out of the playoffs. While the Cardinals are ripe for an upset (they're coming off an embarrassing loss to the Rams after nearly upsetting the 49ers earlier this season), I'll stick with the Steelers, Devlin "Duck" Hodges and a Steelers' defense that leads the NFL with 30 turnovers through 12 games.
The pick: Steelers 21, Cardinals 19
Tennessee (7-5) at Oakland (6-6)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread:Titans -3
Injuries finally appear to have caught up with the Raiders, who have lost two straight games by a combined score of 74-9. While upsetting the surging Titans would be such a Raiders thing this season, I can't pick against the Titans, who are still in the running for the AFC South division title. Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill should have a solid day throwing against an Oakland defense that is 24th in passing yards allowed and 29th in touchdown passes allowed.
The pick: Titans 27, Raiders 17
Seattle (10-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-4)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread:Seahawks -1.5
A week after getting blown out at home by the Ravens, the Rams took out their frustrations out on the Cardinals last Sunday. The Rams won't do the same against the Seahawks, who finally moved in front of the 49ers for first place in the NFC West after beating the Vikings on Monday night. While the Rams will keep it close, I'll go with Russell Wilson and the Seahawks completing the season sweep of the defending NFC champs.
The pick: Seahawks 30, Rams 27
New York Giants (2-10) at Philadelphia (5-7)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST (ESPN)
Point spread: Eagles -8
While no one should have faith in picking the Eagles after watching them lay an egg in Miami, I can't pick against them at home against a Giants team that has looked even worse over their past two games. Despite their sub .500 record, the Eagles are still in the hunt for the NFC East division title with a win over the Giants. Carson Wentz should have a strong outing against New York's 25th ranked pass defense.
The pick: Eagles 30, Giants 17
