Anytime you end up over .500 picking against the spread in an NFL week, it's a good week, right?
I say it is since I went 7-6-1 last week ATS, which I will take, and then went 9-5 straight up. That takes my season records to 36-39-3 ATS and 48-30 straight up.
It's time to have a big week, one that gets my overall ATS record over .500. I feel it this week. There is a lot to like about this week's games.
There are a few be-careful games on this board for teams that are riding high, including the 49ers, Lions and Eagles. As we've come to see so far this season, just when we think a team is really surging, something happens and it loses a game.
I am not saying those three will lose, but please be careful.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
The Broncos are 1-4 coming off a home loss to the Jets. They have defensive issues, which is never a good thing against Patrick Mahomes. The weather might be bad in this one, which would help Denver. But it doesn't really matter. Look for the Chiefs to roll.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Broncos 13 (Result: Chiefs win 19-8)
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+4) (London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFLN, fubo)
Both of these teams are coming off bad losses, and now have to make a long trip to play this one in London. The Titans defense was bad agains the Colts, but the Ravens offense blew a bunch of scoring chances in losing to the Steelers. These games are always physical battles, which is why this will be close. The Ravens are good against the run, which is problem for Derrick Henry. The Titans win it, but it's close.
Pick: Titans 21, Ravens 20
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Commanders are coming off a terrible showing last Thursday against the Bears. The defense has been horrific. The Falcons showed some life late on offense to pull out the game with the Texans last week. That will get Desmond Ridder going, and against this defense it isn't hard to do. The Falcons get to 4-2.
Pick: Falcons 28, Commanders 22
I've got the Falcons covering the spread at home, and so does the SportsLine Projection Model. But where does it see value in terms of the total? Head on over to SportsLine and find out.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Bears are coming off an impressive road victory last week against the Commanders, while the Vikings lost to the Chiefs at home. Both teams have defensive issues, which could make this fun to watch. Justin Fields has played much better lately as the Chicago offense has improved. But Minnesota can score — even without Justin Jefferson. This will be fun to watch, and the Vikings take it.
Pick: Vikings 34, Bears 31
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Seahawks are coming off a bye, so they will be rested. But Cincinnati seemed to find its way at Arizona last week. Joe Burrow is back healthy, which showed up in his play. That will continue here. The Bengals will even their record heading into the bye with another big offensive showing.
Pick: Bengals 31, Seahawks 23
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is one of those be-careful games in the NFL. The 49ers are the best team, but they put a lot in the Dallas game last week and the Browns are coming off a bye. If Cleveland has quarterback Deshaun Watson back here to face that vaunted 49ers defense, it will hang around. If not, P.J. Walker will have a tough go. I say Watson plays and the Browns make it close.
Pick: 49ers 26, Browns 23
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Saints are playing consecutive road games, but they impressed in a big way last week in beating the Patriots, 34-0. The Texans are coming off a tough loss to the Falcons. C.J. Stroud has been outstanding, but this Saints defense is a big challenge. I think the Saints will limit Stroud and find a way to win this one.
Pick: Saints 24, Texans 17
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is for first place in the division. The Jaguars beat the Colts in Week 1, but that seems like a long time ago. Both teams impressed last week, but the Colts will start former Jaguars player Gardner Minshew this week for the injured Anthony Richardson. I think this will be about Jacksonville stopping the Colts run game. Jacksonville will limit it and win.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Colts 20
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Panthers are playing consecutive road games, which is tough, but it's even tougher when you have to try and defend the Miami offense. The Dolphins are rolling on that side of the ball and did show improvement last week on defense. This will be a rough day for Bryce Young and gang as the Miami track team rolls on.
Pick: Dolphins 34, Panthers 13
New England Patriots (+3) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This pits Josh McDaniels against his former boss in Bill Belichick. The Raiders are coming off a Monday night victory, while the Patriots are coming off two awful losses in a row. But I think the Patriots will get back on track here. There isn't much difference between these teams. New England in an upset.
Pick: Patriots 23, Raiders 20
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is an enormous game for both teams. The Lions are 4-1 after dominating the Panthers last week, while the 3-1 Bucs are coming off a bye. Baker Mayfield is playing well, but the Lions defense is stout. This will be close, but the Bucs will find a way to win it late as Mayfield takes them to a late-game field goal for the triumph.
Pick: Bucs 23, Lions 21
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
These two have been in a lot of games, even if their records aren't great. That's a testament to coaching with their rosters. So who will get the best of it here? I think the Rams have the much better quarterback in Matthew Stafford, which will be what gets them the victory.
Pick: Rams 31, Cardinals 20
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (+7)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Jets beat the Broncos to right things a bit. The defense has played well, but the offense has picked it up. Philadelphia is 5-0, but it hasn't quite looked as good as last year. This will be a challenge against that Jets defense. Look for the resurgent Jets run game to keep them in this one. It's close.
Pick: Eagles 24, Jets 21
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Bills return from London after a bad showing against Jacksonville. The Giants are playing consecutive road games, and they are a mess right now. Look for Buffalo to lay a big one on them here as it gets back on track in impressive fashion. Josh Allen lights it up.
Pick: Bills 37, Giants 14
Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
The Chargers are coming off a bye, while the Cowboys are coming off a disaster. Edge to the Chargers. The Dallas defense had big issues with the 49ers offense, but I think it can regroup here. Dak Prescott will also get his offense going. He has to at some point. The Chargers have defensive issues if you block them up front, which Dallas can do. Cowboys win it.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Chargers 26
