Mike Krzyzewski's final season continues with a must-see matchup in the Elite Eight of the 2022 NCAA Tournament when the No. 2 seed Duke Blue Devils battle the No. 4 seed Arkansas Razorbacks. The Blue Devils outlasted Texas Tech on Thursday, securing a 78-73 victory. Duke has now reached the Elite Eight in each of its past three NCAA Tournament appearances. Meanwhile, Arkansas pulled off one the biggest upsets thus far at the NCAA Tournament 2022, beating No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga 74-68. It was Arkansas' first-ever win over a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Tipoff for Duke vs. Arkansas is at 8:49 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Blue Devils as four-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 147.5 in the latest Duke vs. Arkansas odds. Before making any Arkansas vs. Duke picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $1,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Arkansas and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2022. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model's college basketball picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Arkansas vs. Duke:
- Duke vs. Arkansas spread: Duke -4
- Duke vs. Arkansas over-under: 147.5 points
- Duke vs. Arkansas money line: Duke -200, Arkansas +170
- ARK: The Razorbacks are 4-5 against the spread in neutral-site games
- DUKE: The Blue Devils are 4-4 against the spread in neutral-site games
Why Arkansas can cover
The Razorbacks showcased elite defensive potential on Thursday with an upset over Gonzaga. Arkansas held Gonzaga to 37.5 percent shooting and 5-21 from 3-point range, and the Razorbacks forced 15 turnovers on the way to an upset. Arkansas is elite on defense by the numbers as well, ranking No. 11 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Razorbacks are holding opponents to 46.4 percent shooting on 2-point attempts and 32.4 percent shooting on 3-point attempts.
Arkansas is also forcing a turnover on 20.5 percent of possessions, including a 10.5 percent steal rate. The Razorbacks protect the rim well, blocking 11.7 percent of shot attempts, and Arkansas is excellent on the defensive glass with a 74.8 percent defensive rebound rate. Arkansas should also benefit from Duke's below-average free-throw creation, and the Razorbacks rank in the top 30 nationally in free-throw creation rate on offense.
Why Duke can cover
Duke is loaded with a plethora of playmakers, including Paolo Banchero. The freshman forward is averaging 17.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per game this season. Banchero leads a Duke offense that is averaging 80.2 points per game, which ranks eighth in the country. Banchero led the way for the Blue Devils in their victory over Texas Tech, finishing with 22 points, four rebounds and four assists.
All five of Duke's starters scored double figures in the win over Texas Tech. A well-balanced attack will be key against an Arkansas team that ranks 138th in scoring defense. Defensively, the Blue Devils enter Saturday's showdown averaging 5.7 blocked shots per game, the ninth-best mark in college basketball. Center Mark Williams is Duke's best rim protector, averaging 2.9 blocks per game.
How to make Arkansas vs. Duke picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 150 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Duke vs. Arkansas? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
