The San Diego State Aztecs will try to extend their recent success against the Boise State Broncos when the two Mountain West Conference teams square off on Friday at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. The Aztecs (2-2) have won each of the last two matchups against the Broncos (2-2, 1-0 in MWC) and also have won four of the seven meetings all-time between the programs. Meanwhile Boise State, which was picked to win the Mountain Division of the MWC, is looking to bounce back after a shocking 27-10 loss at UTEP last week as a 16½-point favorite. 

Kickoff is 8 p.m. ET. The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Boise State vs. San Diego State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 38.  Before making any San Diego State vs. Boise State picks, you need to see the college football prediction and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $3,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed the model has seen huge returns.

Now the model has dialed in on Boise State vs. San Diego State and just revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of the model's college football picks. Now, here are the college football odds and trends for San Diego State vs. Boise State:  

  • Boise State vs. San Diego State spread: Broncos -6.5
  • Boise State vs. San Diego State over/under: 38 points 
  • Boise State vs. San Diego State money line: Broncos -260, Aztecs +210
  • BSU: JL Skinner ranks second in the conference in tackles per game (9.0) 
  • SDSU: Jordan Byrd ranks seventh in the country in punt returns (17.8 yards per return) 
  • Boise State vs. San Diego State picks: See picks here
Featured Game | Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs

Why the Boise State can cover

San Diego State faces a Boise State program in a bit of turmoil. After the Broncos' loss at UTEP last week in which they managed just 177 total yards and 10 points, coach Andy Avalos fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough and replaced him with former Boise State and NFL head coach Dirk Koetter. Then quarterback Hank Bachmeier, a four-year starter for the Broncos, said he would leave the team and enter the transfer portal. The loss of Bachmeier, who has passed for more than 6,600 yards and 41 touchdowns in his career, forces Boise State to start redshirt freshman Taylen Green.

In addition, Jordan Byrd has the ability to carry the Aztecs. The 5-foot-9 running back and punt returner has scored four touchdowns (three rushing, one returning) this season. In last week's win over Toledo, he ran for 115 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner in the closing seconds.

Why San Diego State can cover

San Diego State is one of the few programs with a history of success against Boise State. The Aztecs have won the last two meetings between the teams and are 4-3 all-time against the Broncos. San Diego State is the only active Group of Five program with a winning record against Boise State (minimum seven games played) and one of only three active schools overall (joining Oregon State and Washington State).

In addition, the Aztecs have been effective running the ball this season. They average 219.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks second in the conference and 18th in the country. The ground game is led by Jordan Byrd, who averages 56.0 rushing yards a game.

How to make Boise State vs. San Diego State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 43 points. It also has an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's San Diego State vs. Boise State pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Boise State vs. San Diego State? And which side is covering well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the San Diego State vs. Boise State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $3,100 on top-rated picks, and find out.