ROCHESTER, N.Y. -- The least accomplished PGA Championship winner of the last six years is one of the most successful young PGA Tour players of the last quarter century. Winners of the last six PGAs include Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa and Phil Mickelson. Titans only.
Will this year's PGA produce similar results? It remains to be seen, but this tournament -- its setups and its courses -- have produced the most consistently great champions over the last several years. There's something to be said about that just as there's something to be said about how the course setup plays right into the hands of some of the current greats of the game.
With Oak Hill ready for its first major in a decade and several of the top stars streaking into the second big one of the year, here are the nine golfers (plus a bonus choice) I believe can win the 105th playing of the PGA Championship. Be sure to check out our complete PGA Championship TV schedule and coverage guide along with the PGA Championship tee times and full slate of PGA Championship predictions and picks from our experts.
2023 PGA Championship predictions, favorites
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
| 1 | |
| No surprises here. Rahm enters having won six of his last 15 starts worldwide, and the course plays perfectly to his strengths. The lack of driver accuracy at times this year has me slightly concerned, but not as much as it would if Oak Hill hadn't been cleared of trees three years ago. I not only believe Rahm is one of the nine who can win but that he will make a real case to win the 2023 grand slam taking the next step to Los Angeles this summer. Odds: 7-1 | |
| 2 | |
| You could reasonably make this list two players long, and it wouldn't be out of line. Rahm or Scheffler vs. the field this week is a real thing, which should tell you how much better they're playing than everyone else (both are gaining over 2.9 strokes per round this year and nobody else is north of 2.4). Scheffler is a menace at majors, too, with seven top 10s in his last 11 starts. Odds: 13/2 | |
| 3 | |
| It's curious that more folks aren't talking about Day doubling his major championship total by winning this one at Oak Hill. He's playing like a top five player in the world, his game fits Oak Hill fairly well, and he's coming in with the confidence a win on the PGA Tour provides but perhaps without the exhaustion. With his ability off the tee and his incredible touch around these greens, I'm in on Day contending this week. Odds: 28-1 | |
| 4 | |
| It's somehow both easy to write Schauffele off at majors (because he hasn't won one) but also impossible to ignore him at them (because he's always in the top 10). At some point (see: Garcia, Sergio) if you stack up enough top 10 finishes, you're going to fall into one. Is that week this week for Schauffele? I don't know the answer, but I do know he's third in strokes gained on the year behind Rahm and Scheffler and he's finished in the top 15 at each of the last four majors. Odds: 18-1 | |
| 5 | |
| The four-time major winner has a lot going for him (perfect course for his skill, comfortability around Rochester and a bit of an edge going into the tournament) but also a lot working against him (no momentum following the Masters, no majors in nearly a decade and a murderer's row of players playing well ahead of him). What does it add up to? I have no idea at this point, but McIlroy is one of the handful of players who can legitimately roll out of bed with no form of late and shoot the 275 needed at this course to win the 2023 PGA Championship. Odds: 12-1 | |
| 6 | |
| Count me as a semi-believer in Koepka once again following his T2 at the Masters. He's obviously proven himself again and again over the last five years at major championships, but there's this nagging feeling that he may have lost that closing kick he once had. Still, it feels likely that he's at least going to be in the mix at some point at a golf course that suits him with a third Wanamaker on the line. Odds: 16-1 | |
| 7 | |
| Another player I'm surprised there hasn't been more hype around. D.J. won last week, and if it does in fact turn into a Bethpage-like event, he should be prepared for it. The argument against Johnson is that he has more missed cuts (three) than top 10s (two) at majors since nearly winning them all in 2020. However, I believe in the LIV Golf Tulsa win last week, and I believe this golf course is better suited than most for Johnson to get major win No. 3. Odds: 25-1 | |
| 8 | |
| Crazy wind? Check. Freezing temperatures? Yes. Length necessary? Absolutely? High scores that require dogged persistence and consistency? No doubt. There are a lot of external signs pointing to Fitzpatrick contending at this year's PGA just like he did last year. If he does win it then he would go to L.A. holding two of the four majors, which is crazy. Odds: 35-1 | |
| 9 | |
| He cruises at major championships because of his length and head-down determination, and this could be the one he breaks through at. If driving does in fact turn out to be the biggest factor in who wins the tournament, Young is primed. Since Jan. 1, only Scheffler, McIlroy, Vitkor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay are gaining more strokes off the tee of all the players in this field. Odds: 25-1 | |
| BONUS | |
| See above. Finau is playing sneaky great golf going into this major championship and takes some juice from a Mexico Open win over Rahm into the PGA. It's true that he hasn't thrived at majors over the last two years, but it's also true that he's an elite driver who is hungry for a major and playing the best golf of his career. Odds: 20-1 | |
Who will win the PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed nine golf majors, including this year's Masters.
