A fun gambling game that my friends and I like to play every year involves the Vegas over/under win totals for the 30 MLB teams. What we do is pick five teams that we think will go "over" (win more games than the over/under) and five teams that we think will be "under." Obviously, the winner is the person who gets the most correct. I could still change my mind, but I wanted to play the exercise out here in this very space.
First, the over/unders, as provided last week by my colleague David Brown:
| MLB Team Wins Over/Unders | ||||
| NL | O/U | AL | O/U | |
| Nationals | 93 | Angels | 87.5 | |
| Dodgers | 91 | Tigers | 86.5 | |
| Cardinals | 87.5 | Red Sox | 86 | |
| Pirates | 85.5 | Mariners | 85 | |
| Giants | 85 | Orioles | 84.5 | |
| Padres | 84 | Blue Jays | 83.5 | |
| Cubs | 81.5 | Royals | 83 | |
| Marlins | 81.5 | Athletics | 82.5 | |
| Mets | 81 | White Sox | 82 | |
| Brewers | 80 | Indians | 81 | |
| Reds | 79 | Yankees | 80 | |
| Braves | 73.5 | Rays | 77.5 | |
| Diamondbacks | 72.5 | Rangers | 76.5 | |
| Rockies | 70.5 | Astros | 73.5 | |
| Phillies | 67 | Twins | 68.5 | |
Anything jump out at you as an obvious over or under? Not me. Generally speaking, the betting public does an accurate job as to the expectations of each team, so this should be a difficult exercise. Here are my five overs and five unders and I encourage everyone to throw their picks in the comments section. We could always revisit after the season to see who won, right?
Over
Indians: Again, I don't think there are any "easy" picks here, but the Indians were the easiest pick for me. They won 85 games last season after a dreadful April and I believe they're better this time around. Getting into the high 80s in wins is realistic. As things stand, just having a winning record gets them "over," so this is my top pick.
Pirates: They won 94 games in 2013 and 88 last season and appear to be just as strong this season as the past two. It's definitely possible the Pirates could dip down to 85 wins and end up on the "under" side -- especially in what looks to be a top-to-bottom strong division -- but I like the Pirates to again top 88 wins and probably get over 90 again.
Mariners: As those who saw my Power Rankings already know, I love me some Mariners this season. Every team that finished above them in the AL last season got worse this offseason while the Mariners got better. They won 87 games last season and I like them to top 90 this time around.
Blue Jays: This was a tough one. The Jays won 83 games last season, so they'll need to improve by at least one game. I think they have the offense and there's enough upside in the rotation -- I love the talent in Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison and Aaron Sanchez -- to do so. Again, though, I'm not confident in this pick.
Nationals: It's always tough to pick the team with the highest over/under to go over, but I can't see the Nationals in that division winning fewer than 95 games. They'll push 100, in my opinion. Keep in mind they were 71-39 (.645, a 162-game pace of 104 wins) after May 28 last season and this time around they're better and healthier.
Under
Athletics: From 2007-11, the A's had four losing records and once finished exactly .500. I feel like with the offseason makeover they're in for a similar stretch in the next few years. I could easily be wrong -- betting against Billy Beane in the regular season has generally been a bad idea -- but I'm not feeling a winning record this season, so they're my top "under" pick.
Rays: Similar to the A's, it's hard to count out Tampa Bay, but the Rays won 77 last season and appear to be worse, even if only slightly. They seem to be the worst team in the AL East, meaning getting to 78 wins is a very tall order.
Reds: I definitely don't think they're gonna suck, but the Reds' roster seems a bit stale and there just doesn't seem to be a ton of upside. With the Cardinals and Pirates being very good, the Cubs much improved and the Brewers with such a strong offense, it's hard to see the Reds sniffing .500, so under 79 wins is a good pick. I think I would peg them in the 72-75 range.
Diamondbacks: The Snakes are rebuilding with a new GM who might be able to make their rotation, if he got back into pitching shape. I can't see them winning 70 games, so under 72.5 fits the bill here. I do like their power potential on offense, though!
Braves: They were 27-40 after the All-Star break last season and they're worse now. I don't love the pick because I could see them winning more than 73 games, but I needed a fifth and this was my best option. I guess I'm too nice, because I really didn't like many options for "under" picks.
Remember, submit your five overs and unders below. We'll have a fun contest and everything. I mean, it's baseball and gambling, what could be more fun this time of year?
