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Back in spring training, I ranked the six divisions. After putting the AL East first (correctly), I thought the easiest thing was to put aside the two Central divisions for the last two spots. Again, correctly. It's fun when things pan out like that, huh? I'm always accountable for my bad predictions, so I'll also toot my own horn when nailing it like this. 

And, boy, are the two Central divisions terrible. 

Just as a quick illustration on the AL Central, the last-place Red Sox of the AL East would be in first place further west. Since they aren't anywhere near the Central, though, the Twins at 36-36 hold first by 2 1/2 games over the Guardians. The Tigers are trying to tank, but sit five games out. The White Sox are 11 games under .500 and still within striking range. Right now, this is just bad. There isn't really much way to spin it. 

I need to point out that being a bad division doesn't disqualify it from being a fun one. This could be an incredibly fun race, especially in terms of chaos. 

The NL Central has it beat, though. There's potential for a lot of late fireworks in this one and it seems possible that none of the five teams end up as sellers (whereas in the AL Central, surely at the least the Tigers and maybe the White Sox sell in addition to the Royals). 

  • The Brewers have been in first place more this season than anyone else here, but they are hardly inspiring. Since their 18-9 start, they've gone 19-25. They play really well in spurts, though, and have spotted themselves a lead. 
  • The Reds are the team to watch at the moment. They are now two games over .500 and just a half-game out of first place. Since a miserable 7-15 start, the Reds have gone 30-20, meaning they've been playing like a 97-win team for most of the season. There's excitement around a lot of the young talent like Matt McLain, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Will Benson and Andrew Abbott, but Elly De La Cruz is taking things to another level. I picked the Brewers to win the division before the season started and hadn't seen any reason to stray for a while -- mostly because the other teams in the division were so bad. I'm really coming around on the Reds, though. They are a serious player. They are also the highest-ranked Central team this week. 
  • The Pirates started 20-8! That was very fun. Of course, they've gone 14-28 since then, during which time the only MLB teams with a worse record are the A's and Royals. Still, they are only 2 1/2 games out of first place and recently had a six-game winning streak. The fan base is showing up for this team again and there's a chance to make some noise here. We know they are capable of a good run because they already made one with that start. 
  • Speaking of being accountable (up above), I'll point out that it wasn't even two weeks ago when I dismantled the Cubs -- mostly the front office, specifically club president Jed Hoyer -- and they've gone 7-2 since. Apparently I should have been critical much earlier in the season, given that I obviously hold some sort of superpower. If only I could learn how to harness it. Anyway, the Cubs are four games out of first place and certainly have enough talent to be a threat here. 
  • The Cardinals are in a fight with the Mets for the most disappointing team in all of baseball. They started 10-24. They recently lost 11 of 13. And yet, they are 8 1/2 games out with more than half the season remaining. I really, strongly don't think they can win this division, but it's workable with this group of teams. 

Projections systems vary, but zeroing in on the most chaotic-looking, Fangraphs has the Brewers winning the division with 82 victories. The Pirates and Cubs finish with 77 wins, in those projections, while the Reds and Cardinals finish with 76. Disagreements aside -- and I have several -- can you imagine how fun it would be to see a race in September that has all five teams within six games of one another? 

Yes, I believe it would be a story that both Centrals could possibly be in a race against history, hoping to avoid having a division winner either .500 or, gulp, with a losing record. Putting that aside, however, any race this close would be great to track. 

Biggest Movers
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8 Yankees
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1 Rays The Rays spilt a series in Oakland (tsk, tsk) and lost two of three in San Diego. That's easily their worst week of the season, factoring in the competition. Still, the Rangers faltered a bit and I'm not prepared to move the Braves ahead when the Rays have a 3 1/2-game lead over them with a much greater run differential while playing in the tougher division. I guess what I'm saying is the Rays have built up a ton of credit and it's still going to take more to unseat them. -- 14-17
2 Braves It's funny how they've kind of staggered hitters getting absurdly hot at times in the season. That's how you can avoid long losing streaks, because it generally helps the offense stay out of prolonged slumps, obviously. The latest group of hitters on a heater includes Eddie Rosario and Michael Harris II. 1 19-9
3 Rangers The Rangers' gambling win total during spring training obviously varied by book, but most hovered around 81 wins. They are now 17 games over .500 with the halfway point of the season nearing. In order to go exactly .500, they'd have to go 37-54 the rest of the way. I'd say if you're holding an "over" ticket, you're safe. 1 16-14
4 Orioles They are so, so good with the lead in the last two innings due to Yennier Cano and Félix Bautista, but they could stand to address the seventh inning. Maybe Mike Elias can pull a heist at the trade deadline and give them three relief aces down the stretch. -- 19-10
5 Diamondbacks Whenever there's an unexpected upstart team like the Diamondbacks, masses sit back waiting for the proverbial other shoe to fall. Especially in a division with the Dodgers, preseason darling Padres and even the Giants with their recent track record, the D-Backs holding a decent lead in the NL West made no sense. And yet they are still up 3 1/2 games. They've lost four of six, though, which means it might be the start of their demise, right? -- 14-17
6 Angels Look at the Halos out here trying to make believers out of everyone. They've now won 11 of 14 and that includes taking three of four from the mighty Rangers in Texas. The Angels didn't win their 41st game until July 26th last year. 5 11-19
7 Marlins The last time the Marlins were 10 games over .500 was May 28 ... 2011. 3 7-24
8 Phillies It's another June Philly surge! They've won 13 of their last 15. I suppose it's fair to point out the Phillies are 8-0 against the Nationals, Tigers and A's during this stretch. Still, much as I defended the Rays during their 13-0 "they haven't beaten anybody!" stretch to start the season, I'll get the Phillies' back here and say it's never as simple as "the weak schedule." Plus, the Phillies took two of three from the Dodgers and three of four from the Diamondbacks, in Arizona, in this same stretch. This coming series against the Braves in Citizens Bank Park will be fun (and the crowd will be rocking). 7 20-11
9 Giants As I said in the introduction, I'm always going to be accountable, so here's more: Early in the season, I said the Giants were both boring and bad and that's a bad combo. If we assign an arbitrary start point to illustrate the fact that this team is neither bad nor boring, let's choose May 15. Starting on that day, the Giants have the best record in baseball at 22-9. 10 14-16
10 Dodgers They were just swept by the Giants, at home, and are 5-10 in June. This is still probably a playoff team, but it's going to take a lot more work than most seasons this past decade. They are clearly less talented than we're accustomed to seeing. 3 19-13
11 Astros They remain dangerous and only a fool would write them off or even mildly doubt them, but it's another rut for the champs. They've lost nine of 12. 2 10-19
12 Blue Jays They go in waves, don't they? They'll get really hot and then look sub-par (or worse) both for weeks at a time. They've now lost six of nine and this is the wrong division to have this keep happening. 4 15-16
13 Red Sox Justin Turner only had 13 homers last season. He's already to 10 in 2023. He's killing the ball in Fenway, too. 1 17-13
14 Yankees They just went 1-5 against the Red Sox in back-to-back weekends. It seems like this Aaron Judge fellow is kind of important for the offense, but is it really that simple? 8 19-12
15 Padres The Padres don't look like they've actually gotten *hot* or anything, but they haven't lost a series since Memorial Day, with a 4-0-2 series record in there. That includes taking two of three from the best team in baseball this past weekend. 2 15-18
16 Reds The eight-game winning streak is the longest for the Reds since 2012, when they won 10 in a row from July 19 through July 29. There's something in the air, that's for sure. I'm being sincere, too. 4 16-14
17 Mariners Early season sensation Jarred Kelenic had a big three-RBI triple on Sunday in a Mariners win. In his previous 40 games, though, he was hitting .222/.301/.376 with 60 strikeouts in 149 at-bats. If the Mariners are going to get things going in a very tough AL West, they'll need everything Kelenic (and Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Teoscar Hernández) can offer. 4 17-13
18 Twins There's a Seinfeld episode where George Costanza is trying to get fired from his job with the Yankees. Try as he might, he just can't get fired. This is the Twins. After starting 10-4, they are desperately trying to cough up first place and no one in the AL Central will let them. Since that start, the Twins have gone 26-31. Not only have they not given up first place, they've increased their lead. 4 16-13
19 Brewers You know what could be a determinative stretch in the NL Central? From June 30-July 16, the Brewers only play the Pirates (three times), Cubs (four times) and Reds (six times). 6 18-11
20 Cubs Christopher Morel hit his 13th homer of the season on Sunday. It was his 31st game. The other Cubs to hit 13 homers in their first 31 games of a season, per CHGO: Gabby Harnett, Hank Sauer and Sammy Sosa, all three MVPs. There are certainly other players ahead of him on the priority list, but I'd love to see Morel in the Home Run Derby. 3 18-12
21 Guardians As already alluded to, the Guardians have done everything they could for a while to let the Twins hold onto first place. They are now within 2 1/2 games, though, and have a three-game series at home with the A's coming. Maybe this is the week things turn? 3 19-10
22 Pirates Less than two years after being selected first overall in the draft, Henry Davis is on his way to the Pirates. He only played in 10 games in Triple-A, but sometimes players skip that level entirely. He can't be any worse than the nonsense the Pirates have gotten behind the plate to this point, so it'll be fun to watch. 6 14-17
23 Tigers Spencer Torkelson's home run Sunday was his fourth in his last 14 games and he's slugging over .500 in that span. He now has exactly 700 MLB plate appearances. Maybe it's starting to click, at least a little? 4 17-13
24 Cardinals The Cardinals have only one losing season in the 2000s. They'd have to go 53-37 the rest of the way to end up 82-80. Are they good enough to pull that off? That's a 95-win pace. 1 14-16
25 Mets Due to the injury sustained to his wrist/hand area, Pete Alonso was expected to miss 3-4 weeks. He was back after just 10 days. He went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts. I don't blame him for trying to hustle back, of course. He's as tough as they come and the Mets have now lost 11 of their last 14. 3 15-14
26 White Sox From the "you can't predict baseball" headlines: Lance Lynn struck out 16 on Sunday. His previous career high in a game was 12 and he's now 36 years old. He had struck out 14 in his previous three games combined. Plus, this tied a White Sox franchise record! They had Chris Sale in the rotation for five full seasons, in which he never finished lower than sixth in Cy Young voting, and he never did that. Amazing. 2 6-24
27 Rockies What happened to the Rockies in Atlanta is about a rough as series come. They were outscored by the Braves 26-6 in the first three games. On Sunday, the Rockies had a 5-0 lead but then lost 14-6. Brutal. 1 7-22
28 Nationals The Nats are really wearing it right now through a brutal schedule stretch. Sure, they've gone 4-13 since May 28, but that was the last time they played a team with a current sub-.500 record. 2 14-15
29 Athletics I noticed someone at the Reverse Boycott game had a Rachel Phelps cut-out with A's owner John Fisher's face on it. While I doubt my constantly calling Fisher "Rachel Phelps" here in the power rankings comment section was the inspiration, I was pretty fired up to see there are others on board. -- 14-17
30 Royals The A's seven-game winning streak was definitely a fluky thing, but that's a lot of wins in a short time. The Royals' last seven wins have come in the same span as 21 losses. That's enough to keep them here. -- 18-13