We're in the dog days of the 2017 MLB season, and that means our focus is mostly on the various and sundry playoff races.
Obviously, a glance at the standings page will give you an idea of where things stand when it comes to those coveted 10 postseason berths, but to peer a bit more deeply into these vital matters, we'll turn to our compadres over at SportsLine (@SportsLine on Twitter). Over there, they cook up projections and playoff percentages for each team and tell you what each team's chances of winning the pennant and World Series are. It's partly based on results to date, of course, but how each team projects the rest of the way at the roster level also plays a big role.
So below you'll see each team's forecast regular-season record for 2017, forecast record for the remainder of the season, chances that they make the playoffs via division title or wild-card berth, and then the current chances that they win the pennant and World Series. Pretty much covers it, no? By the way, these numbers aren't just plucked from thin air; they come to us via the SportsLine projection system.
First up, the American League ...
AMERICAN LEAGUE | SEASON FORECAST | REST OF SEASON | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POST-SEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | ALCS ODDS | LCS% | WS ODDS | WS% | |
Houston Astros | 97.3 | 64.7 | 60.1% | 21.3 | 16.7 | 56.1% | 93.2% | 98.4% | 9/4, 30.8% | 32.20% | 6/1, 14.3% | 11.74% |
Boston Red Sox | 94.2 | 67.9 | 58.1% | 23.1 | 15.9 | 59.4% | 71.9% | 94.0% | 5/2, 28.6% | 26.04% | 7/1, 12.5% | 9.16% |
Cleveland Indians | 91.7 | 70.3 | 56.6% | 23.7 | 16.3 | 59.2% | 79.0% | 89.5% | 5/2, 28.6% | 21.18% | 7/1, 12.5% | 8.03% |
New York Yankees | 88.9 | 73.2 | 54.8% | 22.9 | 16.1 | 58.6% | 25.8% | 73.9% | 5/1, 16.7% | 9.52% | 12/1, 7.7% | 3.72% |
Minnesota Twins | 83.4 | 78.6 | 51.5% | 20.4 | 19.6 | 50.9% | 12.1% | 34.6% | 50/1, 2% | 2.27% | 100/1, 1% | 0.66% |
Los Angeles Angels | 82.7 | 79.3 | 51.0% | 18.7 | 19.3 | 49.2% | 3.4% | 28.2% | 20/1, 4.8% | 2.24% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.67% |
Kansas City Royals | 81.7 | 80.3 | 50.4% | 19.7 | 19.3 | 50.5% | 8.5% | 23.4% | 20/1, 4.8% | 2.54% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.56% |
Texas Rangers | 81.6 | 80.4 | 50.4% | 20.6 | 18.4 | 52.8% | 2.1% | 22.3% | 50/1, 2% | 2.04% | 100/1, 1% | 0.57% |
Seattle Mariners | 80.6 | 81.4 | 49.7% | 17.6 | 19.4 | 47.5% | 1.3% | 16.5% | 25/1, 3.8% | 1.17% | 50/1, 2% | 0.40% |
Tampa Bay Rays | 78.1 | 83.9 | 48.2% | 17.1 | 18.9 | 47.6% | 1.0% | 7.9% | 50/1, 2% | 0.36% | 100/1, 1% | 0.06% |
Baltimore Orioles | 77.0 | 85.0 | 47.6% | 17.0 | 21.0 | 44.8% | 0.8% | 5.8% | 100/1, 1% | 0.21% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.06% |
Toronto Blue Jays | 76.0 | 86.0 | 46.9% | 17.0 | 21.0 | 44.6% | 0.4% | 4.0% | 100/1, 1% | 0.19% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.07% |
Detroit Tigers | 72.3 | 89.7 | 44.6% | 18.3 | 20.7 | 46.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 500/1, 0.2% | 0.04% | 1000/1, 0.1% | 0.00% |
Oakland Athletics | 70.7 | 91.4 | 43.6% | 16.7 | 21.3 | 43.8% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Chicago White Sox | 63.1 | 98.9 | 38.9% | 16.1 | 24.9 | 39.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Right now, here's how the AL playoff bracket is projected to look ...
- Wild card: Twins at Yankees
- ALDS: Indians versus Red Sox
- ALDS: Wild-card winner versus Astros
It seems like there has been a different team sitting in the second AL wild card spot every day for the last three weeks now. The Twins are currently in line to make the postseason despite trading away closer Brandon Kintzler at the trade deadline. They've gone 5-1 in their last six games and 12-4 in their last 16 games, which is enough to push them into the SportsLine projected postseason field despite a minus-35 run differential on the season. The Twins have to continue playing well though, because the Angels are breathing down their neck.
Elsewhere in the AL projections, the Red Sox continue to inch closer and closer to the scuffling Astros for the league's top record. That's more about the Red Sox rising than the Astros falling, however, despite Houston's 16-19 second half record. As it stands, the AL has four teams (Astros, Red Sox, Indians, Yankees) that have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. Roughly half the league is in the mix for that second wild card spot.
And now the National League ...
NATIONAL LEAGUE | SEASON FORECAST | REST OF SEASON | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POST-SEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | NLCS ODDS | LCS% | WS ODDS | WS% | |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 113.2 | 48.8 | 69.9% | 26.2 | 13.8 | 65.5% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 5/7, 58.3% | 52.38% | 3/2, 40% | 37.71% |
Washington Nationals | 98.7 | 63.3 | 60.9% | 24.7 | 15.3 | 61.7% | 98.7% | 99.5% | 7/2, 22.2% | 22.22% | 7/1, 12.5% | 13.19% |
Chicago Cubs | 88.2 | 73.8 | 54.5% | 22.2 | 16.8 | 57.0% | 55.6% | 70.2% | 5/1, 16.7% | 11.16% | 10/1, 9.1% | 7.20% |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 87.9 | 74.1 | 54.2% | 20.9 | 17.1 | 54.9% | 0.1% | 66.3% | 12/1, 7.7% | 5.29% | 25/1, 3.8% | 2.54% |
Colorado Rockies | 87.4 | 74.6 | 53.9% | 19.4 | 18.6 | 51.0% | 0.0% | 62.5% | 12/1, 7.7% | 2.32% | 25/1, 3.8% | 1.02% |
St Louis Cardinals | 84.8 | 77.2 | 52.3% | 21.8 | 16.2 | 57.3% | 23.9% | 44.2% | 15/1, 6.2% | 3.87% | 30/1, 3.2% | 1.61% |
Milwaukee Brewers | 83.1 | 78.9 | 51.3% | 18.1 | 18.9 | 49.0% | 16.6% | 30.7% | 20/1, 4.8% | 1.64% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.65% |
Miami Marlins | 80.2 | 81.8 | 49.5% | 20.2 | 19.8 | 50.5% | 1.2% | 14.5% | 150/1, 0.7% | 0.58% | 300/1, 0.3% | 0.24% |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 77.9 | 84.2 | 48.1% | 17.9 | 20.1 | 47.0% | 3.8% | 8.9% | 50/1, 2% | 0.47% | 100/1, 1% | 0.10% |
Atlanta Braves | 74.1 | 87.9 | 45.7% | 19.1 | 20.9 | 47.7% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 1000/1, 0.1% | 0.04% | 2000/1, 0% | 0.02% |
New York Mets | 72.7 | 89.3 | 44.9% | 18.7 | 21.3 | 46.7% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1000/1, 0.1% | 0.02% | 2000/1, 0% | 0.02% |
San Diego Padres | 68.5 | 93.5 | 42.3% | 13.5 | 24.5 | 35.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Cincinnati Reds | 67.9 | 94.1 | 41.9% | 14.9 | 22.1 | 40.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.01% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
San Francisco Giants | 66.6 | 95.4 | 41.1% | 16.6 | 19.4 | 46.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Philadelphia Phillies | 60.0 | 102.0 | 37.0% | 15.0 | 25.0 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | XXXX | 0.00% | XXXX | 0.00% |
Here's the current projected NL playoff bracket ...
- Wild card: Rockies at Diamondbacks
- NLDS: Cubs versus Nationals
- NLDS: Wild-card winner versus Dodgers
The NL wild card race is starting to get interesting, folks. Both the D-Backs and Rockies have seen their postseason odds drop quite a bit since last week. Arizona went from 77.4 percent to 66.3 percent while Colorado went from 68.9 percent to 62.5 percent. Both teams are still in good shape to qualify for the postseason. They have both been struggling in the second half though, and they want to reverse that trend soon, before their postseason spots are really in jeopardy.
The biggest mover in the NL is the Cubs, who have improved their postseason odds from 61.9 percent last week to 70.2 percent this week, jumping over both the Rockies and D-Backs in the process. They haven't yet started to run away with the NL Central, and while most seem to expect it to happen at some point, Chicago keeps falling into a rut each time it appears they're ready to take off.
And that should catch you up on how the playoff field projects. We'll check back in next week and see how things have changed.
(Check out more of this sort of thing over at SportsLine.)