Joey Logano punched his ticket to the 2018 NASCAR championship race at Homestead in two weeks with a victory last Sunday at Martinsvile. Now, seven racers are vying for just three remaining spots as the series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the 2018 AAA Texas 500 at 3 p.m. ET. Kyle Busch, atop the NASCAR Playoff standings, is the heavy favorite at 7-2 NASCAR at Texas odds, with Kevin Harvick (4-1), Martin Truex Jr. (5-1), Kyle Larson (8-1) and Brad Keselowski (8-1) hot on his heels. Before you book you own 2018 NASCAR at Texas picks, you'll want to check out what former Vegas bookmaker and NASCAR handicapper Micah Roberts has to say.

Roberts nailed last week's NASCAR Playoffs 2018 race, calling for Logano to take the checkered flag at Martinsville despite being a 12-1 underdog. The result: Logano bumped Truex Jr. out of the way on the final lap for the huge victory. 

Roberts also picked the winner in first two races of the NASCAR playoffs, calling for Keselowski to win at Vegas at 12-1 odds and for Busch to secure his seventh win of the season, which he did in Richmond after starting from the 11th spot. Roberts also picked Truex Jr. four weeks ago at Charlotte, who was in line to win before Jimmie Johnson wiped him out on the final lap. 

In the 2017 playoffs, Roberts picked nine of 10 winners. That was no fluke: In 2016, he told readers to back Hamlin at 15-1 in the Daytona 500. The result: Hamlin edged Truex for the checkered flag. Roberts also nailed Hamlin at 40-1 to win at Watkins Glen later that year. 

Now, he has analyzed the 2018 NASCAR at Texas field from every possible angle and locked in his AAA Texas 500 picks. You can see his entire projected leaderboard only at SportsLine. 

We can tell you he's not picking Busch, despite being a three-time winner at the track including the spring stop. Motivation is the key factor in Roberts fading the favorite. 

"He has the most Playoff points and just needs to play it safe to advance to the final race at Homestead in three weeks," Roberts told SportsLine. "That's not really his style, but big-picture racing is what he should do." 

Instead, one of the 2018 First Data 500 picks he likes to finish near the front: Ryan Blaney, a 12-1 darkhorse who has done some of his best racing at Texas. 

"Blaney has had career-best runs at Texas in each of his last four starts, ending with fifth-place in the spring race," Roberts said. "He's been fast in his last three races on 1.5-mile tracks, including a runner-up finish at Kentucky, a fifth-place at Las Vegas, and a seventh-place at Kansas." Blaney also won the Texas Xfinity race in April.

Blaney won at Charlotte on the final day of September and has five top-10 finishes since the beginning of August. He started the current NASCAR season off with a bang with a win in a Duel at Daytona.

For the win, Roberts is backing a driver with double-digit odds to shock the field by winning the AAA Texas 500. He also has two other drivers with double-digit odds making strong runs at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs them could hit it big. 

So who wins NASCAR at Texas? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the nation's premier NASCAR handicapper, and find out.