The Milwaukee Bucks (29-19) host the Sacramento Kings at Fiserv Forum on Saturday evening. Milwaukee is on the second night of a back-to-back after knocking off the the Chicago Bulls on Friday. Sacramento is 6-13 on the road and 18-29 overall this season. The Kings are reporting no injuries, while Brook Lopez (back) remains out for Milwaukee and superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as doubtful due to right knee soreness.
Milwaukee is listed as a seven-point home favorite for this 7 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 230.5 in the latest Kings vs. Bucks odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Kings vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 56-30 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Kings, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Kings vs. Bucks:
- Bucks vs. Kings spread: Bucks -7
- Bucks vs. Kings over-under: 230.5 points
- Sacramento: The Kings are 7-12 against the spread in road games
- Milwaukee: The Bucks are 2-6 against the spread with no rest
Why the Kings can cover
The Kings are elite in key categories on the offensive side of the floor. Sacramento is No. 3 in the NBA in free-throw attempts, producing 22.6 per game, and the Kings are in the top five in 49.1 points in the paint per game. Sacramento is also near the top of the league in fast-break points, averaging 13.0 per game, with top-10 marks in second-chance points (14.2 per game), offensive rebound rate (27.6 percent) and turnover rate (less than 14 percent).
Milwaukee is No. 29 in the NBA in 3-pointers allowed on defense, paving an avenue for Sacramento to find success, and the Bucks are also below the NBA's average in assists allowed to opponents. On the other end, the Kings are in the top 10 in 3-pointers allowed, giving up only 11.8 triples per game, and Milwaukee is below-average in assists per game on offense.
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee is the superior team on paper, with top-flight units on both ends of the floor. The Bucks are out-scoring opponents by almost four points per 100 possessions this season, with top-six rankings in 3-pointers (14.3 per game), field-goal percentage allowed (43.8 percent), 3-point percentage allowed (33.7 percent), and points allowed in the paint. In addition, Milwaukee is strongly above-average on the defensive glass, with high-end shooting on offense and the ability to prevent free throws and fast break opportunities on defense.
From there, the Bucks should benefit from Sacramento's weaknesses. The Kings are below-average in 3-point accuracy, free-throw accuracy and assists on offense. Sacramento is also in the bottom five of the NBA in defensive rating, with the Kings ranking third-worst in the league in field-goal percentage allowed.
How to make Kings vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 224 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Bucks vs. Kings? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.