The Miami Heat visit the Philadelphia 76ers for a prime time battle on Wednesday evening at the Wells Fargo Center. Miami is 16-12 this season with a solid 8-8 record on the road. Philadelphia is 15-13 after winning four of the last six contests. Joel Embiid (rib) and Seth Curry (shoulder) are questionable for the 76ers, with Ben Simmons (personal) remaining out. Jimmy Butler (tailbone), Bam Adebayo (thumb) and Markieff Morris (neck) are out for the Heat, with Tyler Herro (quad) listed as questionable.
Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the 76ers as seven-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 204.5 in the latest Heat vs. 76ers odds. Before you make any 76ers vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 44-20 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Sixers and locked in its NBA picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's NBA picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Sixers vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. 76ers spread: 76ers -7
- Heat vs. 76ers over-under: 204.5 points
- Heat vs. 76ers money line: 76ers -300, Heat +240
- MIA: The Heat are 8-8 against the spread in road games this season
- PHI: The 76ers are 4-8 against the spread in 2021-22 home games
Why the Heat can cover
Miami is a sound team from a statistical perspective, and Philadelphia's weaknesses also help to bolster a favorable case for the Heat. The Heat are scoring 110.1 points per 100 possessions on offense, with top-eight marks in 3-point shooting, two-point shooting, free throw shooting, assists and assist rate. Miami is also very solid on the offensive glass, grabbing 28.4 percent of available rebounds, and Philadelphia lands in the bottom five of the NBA in rebounding on both ends.
Defensively, the Heat are limiting opponents to just 1.07 points per possession, and no team allows fewer points in the paint (39.6 per game) than Miami. The Heat are also in the top 10 in field goal percentage allowed, assists allowed and turnovers created, with above-average defensive rebounding metrics. Philadelphia is just No. 24 in the NBA in assists, and that lack of ball movement could make things easier for Miami's defense.
Why the 76ers can cover
Philadelphia is notably better at home, and the Sixers are sound and effective in several important areas. Doc Rivers' team is making 45.8 percent of its field goal attempts this season, with Philadelphia ranking in the top 10 of the NBA in free throw creation rate and free throw accuracy (81.3 percent). The 76ers take care of the ball at an elite level, committing only 12.4 turnovers per game, and Miami could help Philadelphia's offense due to shortcomings in free throw prevention and 3-point defense.
On the opposite end, the 76ers lead the NBA in blocked shots, averaging 6.0 rejections per game, and Philadelphia is producing 7.8 steals per contest. The Sixers are also above-average in assists allowed, with Philadelphia ranking above the league average in free throw prevention and Miami landing below that baseline in creating free throw attempts on offense this season.
How to make 76ers vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting these two teams will combine for 207 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. 76ers? And which side of the spread hits nearly 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.