The Los Angeles Lakers visit the Golden State Warriors on Saturday evening. The Lakers and Warriors face off in prime time, with Chase Center hosting the festivities. The Warriors boast the NBA's best home record at 25-5, with Los Angeles struggling to a 9-17 mark on the road. Golden State is 41-15 overall, and Los Angeles is 26-30 and in the play-in mix. LeBron James (knee) and Russell Westbrook (back) are both expected to be available for the Lakers, with Carmelo Anthony (hamstring) and Kendrick Nunn (knee) ruled out. Draymond Green (back), Andre Iguodala (back) and James Wiseman (knee) are out for the Warriors.
Golden State is listed as a seven-point home favorite for this 8:30 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 225 in the latest Lakers vs. Warriors odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Warriors vs. Lakers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 65-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Warriors, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Warriors vs. Lakers:
- Lakers vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -7
- Lakers vs. Warriors over-under: 225 points
- Lakers vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -320, Lakers +250
- LAL: The Lakers are 12-14 against the spread in road games
- GSW: The Warriors are 17-11-2 against the spread in home games
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers should benefit from Golden State's biggest weakness. The Warriors are No. 29 in the NBA in turnovers per game on offense, with that lack of ball security leading to Los Angeles potentially benefiting in transition. The Lakers are No. 4 in the league in fast-break points, averaging 14.6 points per game, and Los Angeles is set up well to take advantage of this edge. Los Angeles is in the top eight of the NBA in field-goal percentage, 2-point percentage and free-throw attempts, with a top-10 mark in points in the paint.
On defense, the Lakers are adept at forcing turnovers, creating 14.6 per game to rank in the top 10 of the NBA. Los Angeles is also blocking 5.6 shots per game, landing near the top of the league, and producing 8.0 steals per game. The Warriors are No. 24 in the NBA in free-throw prevention, with the Lakers able to put pressure on the rim and create increased efficiency at the line.
Why the Warriors can cover
Chase Center has been quite kind to the Warriors this season. In addition to the NBA's best home record at 25-5, Golden State is out-scoring opponents by more than 12 points per 100 possessions in its home building. The Warriors have a 59.2 percent true shooting mark in home games, with opponents scoring only 101.1 points per 100 possessions. In contrast, the Lakers have a -3.4 net rating in road games, and the offense has scuffled for Los Angeles away from home.
The Lakers are scoring only 1.07 points per possession in road games, and Golden State's defense ranks No. 1 in the NBA for the full season. The Warriors are leading the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed (42.9 percent) and 3-point percentage allowed (33.1 percent). Golden State is also in the top six of the NBA in steals, turnovers created, points allowed in the paint and 2-point percentage defense, with Los Angeles ranking No. 29 in the league in free-throw accuracy and No. 26 in the NBA in ball security on offense.
How to make Warriors vs. Lakers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 221 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Lakers vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.