Luka Doncic and the red-hot Dallas Mavericks face an intriguing challenge on Tuesday evening. Dallas visits Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors, with the Mavericks looking to build on an 11-2 mark in the last 13 games. The Mavs are 27-20 this season, and the Warriors are 34-13 overall and 21-4 at home. Klay Thompson (knee) is questionable for Golden State, with Draymond Green (back), James Wiseman (knee) and Andre Iguodala (hip) ruled out. Sterling Brown (foot) is out for Dallas.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a three-point favorite at home for this 10 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 210.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before locking in any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 15 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 58-32 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Mavs, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Mavs vs. Warriors:
- Warriors vs. Mavericks spread: Warriors -3
- Warriors vs. Mavericks over-under: 210.5 points
- Warriors vs. Mavericks money line: Warriors -150, Mavericks +130
- DAL: The Mavericks are 13-10 against the spread in road games
- GSW: The Warriors are 15-8-2 against the spread in home games
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas is excellent in avoiding turnovers on offense, committing only 12.7 giveaways per game. The Mavericks are also excellent in 2-point shooting, making 54.1 percent of shots, and Dallas is elite on the defensive end. The Mavericks rank in the top five of the NBA in defensive rating, giving up 106.1 points per 100 possessions. Dallas leads the league in 3-point prevention, allowing only 10.7 triples per game, and the Mavericks are in the top eight in 3-point percentage (33.6 percent) and free-throw attempts allowed (20.0 per game).
Dallas is No. 3 in the NBA in defensive rebound rate, securing 74.3 percent of available rebounds, and opponents generate only 12.5 second-chance points per game against the Mavericks. Dallas allows only 23.1 assists per game, a top-10 figure, and the Warriors are No. 29 in the NBA in turnovers committed on offense.
Why the Warriors can cover
Golden State has several offensive strengths, including the NBA's best passing profile. From there, though, the Warriors have the best statistical profile in the league on the defensive end. Golden State is giving up 102.6 points per 100 possessions, No. 1 in the NBA, and opponents are shooting 42.7 percent from the field and 32.9 percent from 3-point range against the Warriors.
Golden State also leads the NBA in assists allowed, giving up only 21.9 per game, and the Warriors are No. 3 in the league in creating turnovers, forcing 15.4 per game. Golden State generates 9.5 steals per game, No. 2 in the NBA, and the Warriors are near the top of the league in defensive rebound rate (73.9 percent), points in the paint allowed (41.9 per game) and fast-break points allowed (11.5 per game). Dallas is just No. 25 in the NBA in 3-point percentage on offense, revealing a potential point of emphasis for the Golden State defense.
How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.