The Phoenix Mercury hope the third time's the charm on Saturday afternoon when they visit the Las Vegas Aces for a WNBA matchup at Michelob Ultra Arena. The Aces (5-1) have beaten the Mercury (2-3) twice in the first couple of weeks in the WNBA season, including an 86-74 victory on Tuesday night. The star-studded Mercury also suffered a 94-84 loss to the Dallas Wings on Thursday, but they are among the league's highest-scoring teams. Las Vegas is the best offensive team in the WNBA, and it followed up its home win over the Mercury with a 93-87 victory against the Minnesota Lynx on Thursday night.
Tipoff is set for 3 p.m. ET in Las Vegas. Las Vegas is the eight-point favorite in the latest Mercury vs. Aces odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is 170. Before making any Aces vs. Mercury picks, be sure to see the WNBA predictions and betting advice from women's basketball experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks.
Now, Barzilai and Wetzel have turned their attention to the WNBA after going 590-430 overall (+127.40 units, +13.6 percent) during the 2021-22 women's college basketball season. They also hit on two of their three picks on WNBA Opening Night. Anyone who has followed them has seen huge returns.
Now, they've set their sights on Mercury vs. Aces, and just locked in its picks and WNBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see their picks. Now, here are several WNBA odds and betting lines for Aces vs. Mercury:
- Mercury vs. Aces spread: Aces -8
- Mercury vs. Aces over-under: 170 points
- Mercury vs. Aces money line: Phoenix +285, Las Vegas -360
- Mercury vs. Aces tickets: See tickets at StubHub
- Mercury: Tina Charles led the league in scoring last season (23.4 ppg).
- Aces: A'ja Wilson leads the WNBA with three blocked shots per contest.
Why the Aces can cover
Las Vegas was the best-shooting and highest-scoring team in the WNBA last season, and that has carried over. The Aces score 90.3 points per game and are shooting 47.5 percent from the field. Their only loss so far is an 89-76 setback to the Washington Mystics, when they lost the turnover battle 16-9. They average 13.3 per game, but their scoring has covered that up. Former Notre Dame star Jackie Young raised her average to 19.2 per game after scoring 25 on Thursday night.
Dearica Hamby leads the league in rebounds at 11 per contest and scores 14.3 points. Kelsey Plum led all five starters in double figures with 20 points on 4-of-8 3-point shooting in the last meeting with the Mercury. Las Vegas shot almost 47 percent, and it shot a scorching 58.2 percent from the field and 52.4 from long range in a 106-88 win against Phoenix in the season opener. Plum averages 17.3 points and 5.8 assists, while A'ja Wilson scores 15.5 and adds 10.5 rebounds.
Why the Mercury can cover
Phoenix has the talent to dominate and scores 82.4 points per game, third in the WNBA. But it has had trouble at times using Diamond Deshields and Tina Charles to full effect. Diana Taurasi continues to provide leadership at age 39, and Skylar Diggins-Smith also is a talented veteran presence. Taurasi is the top scorer at 17.4 per game after putting up 31 in Thursday's loss, and Diggins-Smith averages 17 points. The two players combine for 9.1 assists.
The Mercury commit the fewest turnovers in the WNBA, and if they can cool down the Aces shooters, they can compete. They are allowing 85.4 points per game, third-most in the league, but Shey Peddy (1.4 steals per game) and Diggins-Smith cause trouble for ball-handlers. The Aces are susceptible to turnovers, so they should be able to create an edge there. Peddy averages 10.8 points and 3.8 assists, while Charles scores 15.5 points and grabs 8.8 rebounds.
How to make Mercury vs. Aces picks
Barzilai and Wetzel have taken a close look at Saturday's Aces vs. Mercury matchup from every angle, and they are leaning under on the total and have a strong play on one side. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins the Mercury vs. Aces WNBA matchup on Saturday afternoon? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of Aces vs. Mercury matchup to back Saturday, all from the experts who have crushed their women's college basketball picks.