The Texas Southern Tigers visit the No. 14 Florida Gators on Monday evening in Gainesville. Texas Southern is aiming for its first win of the season after an 0-7 start. The Tigers are led by former LSU head coach Johnny Jones, and Texas Southern continues a road-heavy schedule that does not include a home game until Jan. 8. Florida is 6-1 this season and perfect at home, with the Gators picking up quality wins over both Ohio State and Florida State in the early going.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Gators as 23.5-point home favorites for this 6 p.m. ET tipoff that gets the evening's college basketball schedule underway. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 139 in the latest Florida vs. Texas Southern odds. Before locking in any Texas Southern vs. Florida picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Florida vs. Texas Southern. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and betting trends for Texas Southern vs. Florida:
- Florida vs. Texas Southern spread: Florida -23.5
- Florida vs. Texas Southern over-under: 139 points
- Florida vs. Texas Southern money line: Florida -4000, Texas Southern +1400
- TS: The Tigers are 5-2 against the spread in 2021-22
- FLA: The Gators are 5-2 against the spread this season
Why Texas Southern can cover
This is a very difficult matchup for Texas Southern, but the Tigers have some strengths to lean on. Texas Southern is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, securing 36.8 percent of missed shots, and the Tigers are above-average in free-throw creation rate. Florida is outside the top 250 in free-throw prevention on defense, and Texas Southern should live at the charity stripe.
On the opposite side, the Tigers are holding opponents to 29.4 percent from 3-point range, and Texas Southern sports a 10.5 percent block rate for the season. Florida is shooting just 32 percent on 3-point attempts, and the Gators are struggling with live-ball turnovers on the offensive side. Opponents have a 10.3 percent steal rate against Florida, and Texas Southern could be aggressive in trying to create transition chances.
Why Florida can cover
Florida's defense is stellar, ranking in the top 15 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and throttling opponents to begin the 2021-22 season. The Gators will lean on that effectiveness, but Florida also has edges on offense and in the ability to take advantage of Texas Southern's weaknesses. Florida is grabbing more than 34 percent of missed shots on the offensive glass, and the Gators are above-average in creating free-throw attempts. Florida is also shooting 51.2 percent on 2-points attempts and 74.3 percent on free-throw attempts, both of which are above-average marks.
Beyond that, Texas Southern is really struggling in a few areas to begin the season. The Tigers are shooting 25.2 percent from 3-point distance and 42.1 percent from inside the arc. Texas Southern is also turning the ball over on 22.5 percent of offensive possessions, and Jones' team is outside the top 300 in free-throw prevention on defense. Florida has the clear edge in size and physicality, and the Gators should be able to protect the ball against a Texas Southern team that is forcing a turnover on only 14.4 percent of defensive trips.
How to make Texas Southern vs. Florida picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 140 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can get the pick only at SportsLine.
So who wins Florida vs. Texas Southern? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned almost $2,100 on its college basketball picks the last five-plus years, and find out.