The No. 5 seed Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes aim for an upset victory in a Sweet 16 matchup on Friday evening in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Miami faces the No. 1 seed Houston Cougars at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. Miami is 27-7 under Jim Larranaga this season, winning 11 of the last 13 games and beating both Drake and Indiana to reach this point. Houston is 33-3 overall under Kelvin Sampson, winning the AAC regular season title and entering March Madness 2023 as a prominent contender for the national title.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Cougars as 7.5-point favorites for this 7:15 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 139 in the latest Miami vs. Houston odds. Before locking in any Houston vs. Miami picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament 83-54 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,500 for $100 players. It also went 4-1 on top-rated picks during the first week of March Madness. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Houston vs. Miami and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Miami vs. Houston:

  • Miami vs. Houston spread: Houston -7.5
  • Miami vs. Houston over/under: 139 points
  • Miami vs. Houston money line: Houston -380, Miami +300
  • MIA: The Hurricanes are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • HOU: The Cougars are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • Miami vs. Houston picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Miami can cover

Miami is an offense-leaning team, but the Hurricanes do have defensive strengths. Opponents make only 33.4% of 3-point attempts against Miami, and the Hurricanes are in the top 15 nationally in free throw rate allowed. Miami also has a 10.6% steal rate, and the Hurricanes were near the top of the ACC in defensive rebound rate (73.5%) during conference play. On offense, Miami has four players averaging at least 13 points per game, including senior guard Isaiah Wong, who is the 2022-23 ACC Player of the Year. Wong scored 27 points and grabbed eight rebounds in the victory over Indiana, and he leads an offense that scores 114.1 points per 100 possessions. 

Miami's shooting splits are excellent, including 36.8% from 3-point range and 54.1% from inside the arc. The Hurricanes create second-chance opportunities by grabbing 32.3% of available offensive rebounds, and Miami is averaging 14.6 assists per game. Ball security is also paramount for the Hurricanes with a giveaway on only 16.3% of offensive possessions this season.

Why Houston can cover 

Houston is loaded with talent, headlined by AAC Player of the Year Marcus Sasser and projected NBA lottery pick Jarace Walker. Sasser erupted for 22 points in the win over Auburn, and he is averaging 16.9 points per game on 38.8% shooting from 3-point range. Walker is a two-way force, averaging 11.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, and Houston is in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Houston is dominant on the offensive glass, securing 37.4% of missed shots, and the Cougars are above the national average in 2-point shooting, turnover avoidance, assists and blocked shot avoidance. 

On defense, Houston is thoroughly excellent, ranking in the top four of the nation in defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. The Cougars lead the country in blocked shot rate (16.8%) and field goal percentage allowed (36.1%), with opponents making only 27.4% of 3-point attempts and 42.9% of 2-point attempts against Houston.

How to make Houston vs. Miami picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 146 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 60% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Miami vs. Houston? And which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.