In an SEC vs. Big Ten showdown, the No. 17 LSU Tigers will take on the Purdue Boilermakers on Monday in the 2023 Citrus Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. The Tigers (9-4, 6-2 SEC West) will be out to snap a two-game losing streak after falling 50-30 to top-ranked Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 3. The Boilermakers (8-5, 6-3 Big Ten West) had a three-game winning streak snapped in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. In that matchup, No. 2 Michigan rolled to a 43-22 win. Both teams have been hit hard with departures via the transfer portal and NFL opt-outs. Most notably, Purdue will be without quarterback Aidan O'Connell, while LSU won't have Jay Ward and edge rusher BJ Ojulari

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. LSU averages 442.7 yards per game, 30th-best in the FBS, while Purdue averages 410.3, 50th-best. The Tigers are favored by 14.5 points in the latest LSU vs. Purdue odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 56. Before making any Purdue vs. LSU picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on LSU vs. Purdue and just locked in its picks and Citrus Bowl 2023 predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Purdue vs. LSU: 

  • LSU vs. Purdue spread: LSU -14.5
  • LSU vs. Purdue over/under: 56 points
  • LSU vs. Purdue money line: LSU -600, Purdue +430
  • LSU: The Tigers are 20-8 against the spread in their last 28 games following an ATS loss
  • PUR: The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. SEC opponents
  • LSU vs. Purdue picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Purdue Boilermakers vs. LSU Tigers

Why LSU can cover

With receivers Kayshon Boutte (NFL opt-out), Jaray Jenkins (NFL opt-out) and Jack Bech (transfer portal) also out, the Tigers will likely want to lean on the run game to ease the burden on quarterback Jayden Daniels. Junior running back Josh Williams is one player the Tigers can turn to. He leads the team's running backs with 97 carries for 532 yards (5.5 average) and is third with six touchdowns. Williams also has 21 receptions for 132 yards (6.3 average). He has rushed for 100 or more yards in three of the 11 games he's played in. His best game was an 18-carry, 118-yard and one-touchdown performance in a 13-10 win at Arkansas on Nov. 12. In the SEC title game against Georgia, he carried six times for 55 yards (9.2 average), including a 47-yarder. He has been hampered with an ankle injury.

Among those leading the defense is senior linebacker Micah Baskerville. He leads the team in tackles with 83, including 39 solo, with one sack for six yards. He also has six pass breakups and one interception he returned for 29 yards and a touchdown. Baskerville has registered nine tackles in each of the last two games, including six solo against Georgia on Dec. 3. He was named to the Butkus Award Watch List for the 2022 season, and was LSU's top returning tackler after finishing second on the team with 83 a year ago.

Why Purdue can cover

With the Boilermakers' top two pass catchers -- wide receiver Charlie Jones and tight end Payne Durham -- declaring for the NFL Draft, junior wide out TJ Sheffield will look to take advantage of a bigger role on the offense. Sheffield had 39 receptions for 424 yards (10.9 average) and three touchdowns during the regular season. In the Big Ten title game against Michigan, he caught four passes for 54 yards (13.5 average). He also came up big in a 31-24 win at Illinois on Nov. 12, making six receptions for 72 yards, including a long of 34 yards.

Defensively, junior safety Sanoussi Kane has made a difference. He leads the team with 69 tackles, including 51 solo, with one sack for 11 yards. He has three pass breakups, with two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. Six other Boilermakers have also forced fumbles this season, and Purdue has recovered six of the eight fumbles it has forced.

How to make Purdue vs. LSU picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 54 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins LSU vs. Purdue in the Citrus Bowl 2023? And which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up almost $2,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.