A year ago, USC and Florida State were coming off losing seasons and looking to find their footing again as proud programs stuck spinning their wheels in the mud of mediocrity. Both reclaimed their standing among the sport's premier teams in short order, with USC finishing 11-3 in Year 1 under coach Lincoln Riley and Florida State reaching 10 wins for the first time since 2016.
Now, teams like Miami and Texas A&M are looking to follow in their footsteps and surge back to national relevance in the 2023 season. The Hurricanes and Aggies are among the list of teams that missed bowl games in the 2022 season, which is a rather dubious distinction in today's game. With 42 bowl games on the docket for the upcoming season -- not including the CFP National Championship Game -- well over half college football's FBS programs will go bowling. In this era, anyone with six wins is almost assured of receiving a postseason bid, so long as five of those wins came against FBS competition.
This year, we highlighted 10 teams that are likely to return to bowls after missing out in 2022. Here are the picks broken out into tiers.
Obvious picks
These teams look like sure bets to reach bowl games in the 2023 season
Texas A&M: The idea of another 5-7 season for Texas A&M is almost incomprehensible with the amount of talent in the program. The Aggies rank No. 4 in the Blue-Chip Ratio at 247Sports because of how well they have recruited under Jimbo Fisher. Even if Texas A&M loses at Miami in Week 2, the rest of the nonconference schedule is a cakewalk. If Fisher actually lets offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino do his job, then the Aggies should easily make enough offensive strides to go bowling. T0 be clear: Merely going bowling isn't enough to justify Fisher's exorbitant salary in what will be his sixth season on the job.
Miami: There is absolutely no scenario under the scorching Miami sun in which the Hurricanes repeat last season's 5-7 fiasco, which included a humiliating home loss against Middle Tennessee and three November blowout defeats. Barring another unthinkable nonconference loss against Miami (Ohio), Bethune-Cookman or Temple, the Hurricanes will need just three ACC wins to reach bowl eligibility. With Georgia Tech, Virginia, Louisville and Boston College on the schedule, that shouldn't be a problem. Plus, the 'Canes get a chance at revenge vs. Texas A&M at home after losing against the Aggies on the road last season.
Appalachian State: The Mountaineers missed the postseason for the first time since 2014 (a transition year to the Football Bowl Subdivision) after finishing 6-6 last season but weren't bowl eligible since two of their victories were against FCS teams. Don't expect it to become a trend. Appalachian State misses Sun Belt West top dogs South Alabama and Troy on the schedule and gets East contenders Coastal Carolina and Marshall at home. From a personnel standpoint, fourth-year coach Shawn Clark has a lot to replace. But even if the Mountaineers only win six games again, they'll be bowl-eligible this time around since there is just one FCS opponent on the docket.
Seems likely
You would think these programs wind up bowling in 2023, but there is at least some reason for pause
Michigan State: The Spartans get Washington at home after losing on the road against the Huskies in Week 3 last season on the way to a 5-7 record. With some revenge there and decent performances in manageable Big Ten games against Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska and Indiana, the Spartans should get bowl eligible. MSU finished 11-2 in coach Mel Tucker's first season, but last season marked a disappointing return to Earth. It's reasonable to expect that 2023 should fall somewhere in between for a school that reached 12 bowls in 13 seasons between 2007 and 2019.
FAU: A new coach and new conference wouldn't typically be grounds for optimism for a new team hoping to improve its win total. But in the case of FAU, that new coach is Tom Herman, who once led Houston to a 13-1 record in the AAC during his first season with the Cougars after they went 8-5 the year prior to his arrival. Helping Herman's case is the arrival of former Texas and Nebraska quarterback Casey Thompson. Games at Clemson and Illinois are tough. But FAU's AAC slate is manageable and provides a path to bowl eligibility for the Owls.
Auburn: The last time Auburn failed to reach a bowl in consecutive seasons was 1998 and 1999. It could be close, but the Tigers ought to reach six wins in coach Hugh Freeze's first season. Instead of playing Penn State as their Power Five nonconference foe like last season, the Tigers face a weak Cal program. With Vanderbilt on the schedule as Auburn's rotating cross-division opponent, there's a chance the Tigers could reach bowl eligibility with a mere 1-5 mark against SEC West competition.
If the breaks go right
These teams will get back to bowl games so long as they get a couple of breaks
Iowa State: Six of Iowa State's eight Big 12 losses in 2022 came by a single possession as the Cyclones limped to a 4-8 mark, ending a five-year bowl streak. But it was likely just an aberration for a program that is on firm footing under eighth-year coach Matt Campbell. Iowa State must play five Big 12 road games this season, but two of them are against league newcomers BYU and Cincinnati. A win in one of those two games, along with a cutback in turnovers from last year's ball-coughing offense, should get the Cyclones bowling again.
Nebraska: An improvement on last season's 1-2 nonconference record seems like a guarantee in Year 1 of Matt Rhule's tenure. The Cornhuskers play Colorado, Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech outside the league and also get five Big Ten home games. Ohio State and Penn State are absent from the schedule, offering a perfect chance for Nebraska to reach its first bowl since 2016.
Arizona: Offensively, the Wildcats are well-positioned to score in bunches. If the defense can even be decent, then Arizona will go bowling in coach Jedd Fisch's third season. A handful of power conference transfers are arriving to bolster the front seven, giving some reason for optimism. Pac-12 road games against Stanford, Colorado and Arizona State are all winnable. If Arizona handles business against those teams, it will be well-positioned to play postseason football for the first time since 2017.
Long-shot pick
Never say never
Virginia Tech: With two nonconference games against Big Ten teams, Virginia Tech is not an obvious choice to make significant strides from last season's 3-8 mark under coach Brent Pry. But those games are against a Purdue team with a first-year coach and a Rutgers team that hasn't finished with a winning record since 2014. If the Hokies go 3-1 or 4-0 outside the ACC — they also play Marshall and Old Dominion — then the back half of their schedule is manageable enough for six wins to enter the picture.
