The Texas Longhorns look to keep up their recent dominance of the Baylor Bears when the Big 12 clubs meet in a key college football showdown Saturday. The Longhorns are coming off a bye following back-to-back-losses and are in desperate need of a win to potentially salvage a winning season under first-year coach Steve Sarkisian. They lost on their 2019 trip to Waco but are 5-1 in the last six meetings and beat the Bears 24-16 last season in Austin. Texas (4-3, 2-2) also leads the series 15-5 since 2000. No. 16 Baylor (6-1, 3-1) is 4-0 at home this season and can remain in the thick of the Big 12 title race with a victory over the Longhorns.  

Kickoff from McLane Stadium is set for noon ET. The Bears are listed at -2.5 in the latest Texas vs. Baylor odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over-under for total points is listed at 61.5. Before making any Baylor vs. Texas picks, check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,900 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 9 of the 2021 season on a 26-11 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texas vs. Baylor and locked in its coveted picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Baylor vs. Texas:

  • Texas vs. Baylor point spread: Baylor -2.5
  • Texas vs. Baylor over-under total: 61.5 points
  • Texas vs. Baylor money line: Baylor -135, Texas +115
  • TEXAS: The Longhorns are 4-1 against the spread in their past five road games.
  • BAYLOR: The Bears are 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in this rivalry.
Featured Game | Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns

Why Baylor can cover

Baylor's players could have extra motivation Saturday following coach Dave Aranda's efforts to quell speculation regarding his potential interest in the coaching vacancies at programs such as LSU and USC. Aranda is widely believed to be a favored candidate for LSU. He was the defensive coordinator for the Tigers team that won the national title two years ago and was largely credited for elevating the club's defense from mediocre to one of the best in the country.

Aranda was a short-notice hire after former coach Matt Rhule bolted for the Carolina Panthers before the start of last season. Baylor went just 2-7 in last year's pandemic-influenced season but Aranda assured Baylor supporters that the program was in good hands.

Aranda told the media this week that his team's 31-29 upset over Iowa State in Week 4 as a touchdown underdog appeared to galvanize his team's confidence and served as a signature win in his short tenure. He also shot down any notion that he might be interested in the high-profile job openings. "I love it here and my family loves it here. Baylor has been everything I've wanted it to be," he said. 

Why Texas can cover 

Sarkisian told the media this week that the bye was beneficial for the Longhorns on several fronts, and he anticipates seeing a rejuvenated team and improved effort Saturday. For one, the break allowed several players to heal up from various elements, and Sarkisian mentioned this was particularly important for an offensive line that had several banged-up players.

Moreover, the coach emphasized that he worked with his team on psychological preparation at least as much as he did with X's and O's of football. Following a pair of second-half collapses, Sarkisian said he challenged his team to be able to perform to matter the environment or circumstances. He expects the Longhorns to be challenged in a touch road environment at Baylor and is eager to see how they respond.

"Finishing games and winning those tight games like that is contagious. When you can do it once, you can do it twice, you start to build that confidence and belief in doing it," he said. "You have to do it the first time to do it the second time, and it becomes who you are."

How to make Baylor vs. Texas picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, projecting 69 combined points. The model has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine

So who wins Texas vs. Baylor? And which side of the spread cashes in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.