I always love writing the Week 1 Start 'Em and Sit 'Em. It's like reconnecting with an old friend. We haven't seen each other for a few months, but it's like nothing's changed. You just pick up where you left off.
It feels good to be back.
Now, for those of you finding this column for the first time, this is your destination for all the starts and sits you need all season. We'll provide you sleepers as well, and hopefully help lead you toward a Fantasy championship.
So let's get started. I'm fired up for Week 1, and hopefully you are as well. It's great to have the NFL back, as well as the ability to set your Fantasy lineup. Let's make sure the right guys are in -- or out -- to help you win in Week 1.
Editor's Note: Projections are provided by CBS Sports and not Jamey Eisenberg. Projected points are for PPR leagues.
More Week 1 help: Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: All positions | Starts and Sits, Sleepers and Busts | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | Sleepers | PPR Cheat Sheet | DFS Guide
Start 'Em & Sit 'Em
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At some point this season, Trey Sermon might be the best running back for the 49ers. But that isn't expected to happen this week, and Mostert should have the chance for a huge game. He's our Start of the Week, and I love his matchup against the Lions.
You know the 49ers want to run the ball, and Detroit was among the worst teams against opposing running backs last season, allowing the second-most Fantasy points to the position. San Francisco, meanwhile, scored the third-most Fantasy points among running backs last year.
While last year's stats shouldn't be your deciding factor, you should trust Kyle Shanahan. He wants to run the ball, and the 49ers were No. 6 in rushing attempts last season among just their running backs. San Francisco got 24.8 carries a game from its running backs in 2020. And this should be a game where Mostert and Sermon do plenty of damage.
I like Mostert as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues, and Sermon should be considered a sleeper. Both 49ers running backs should do well against the Lions, but Mostert is the one to trust for now.
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Quarterbacks
The Falcons defense was bad against opposing quarterbacks last season, and things might not improve much this year. Hurts enters this season with a revamped offensive line and receiving corps, and he has the chance for a strong debut against Atlanta. He has top-five upside for Week 1, and hopefully we see plenty of running from Hurts this week -- and beyond.
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It hasn't been a smooth preseason for the Titans, who had Julio Jones, A.J. Brown and Tannehill all miss valuable practice time. But everyone is healthy now, and this should be a fun game between Tannehill and Kyler Murray. Tannehill has scored at least 20 Fantasy points in six of his past seven games going back to last year.
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Stafford averaged 24.5 Fantasy points per game against the Bears last season in two games with the Lions. He also averaged 25.0 Fantasy points per game in his past two season openers. It would be great to see him make a splash in his debut with the Rams, and he definitely has the weapons to get it done. I like Stafford as a low-end starter in all leagues.
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Lawrence looked the part of the top rookie coming into the NFL this year in his final preseason game against Dallas. He completed 11-of-12 passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns, and it will be nice to see him perform with his receiving corps fully healthy with D.J. Chark (finger) and Marvin Jones (shoulder) back. This Houston defense could be bad, and Lawrence should have an excellent debut.
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Cousins has scored at least 23 Fantasy points in two of his past three season openers. He's facing a Bengals secondary this week that once again will be without cornerback Trae Waynes (hamstring), leaving Eli Apple to help defend Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen. Cousins is more of a sleeper, but he could be a serviceable starter in deeper leagues.
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Ryan might be one of the players that by the end of the season I wish I had ranked higher than where he was when the year started. He could flourish if Kyle Pitts and Russell Gage help the Falcons move on from Julio Jones, with Calvin Ridley the new lead singer. This week, he could be in a shootout with the Eagles, which would be fun. He's also averaged 25.0 Fantasy points per game in his past two season openers.
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Mayfield might be throwing a lot this week if the Browns are in a shootout with the Chiefs, and he gets Odell Beckham (knee) back. Mayfield averaged 25.6 Fantasy points per game in his final five road games last season, but he struggled at Kansas City in the playoffs with 204 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception, with 11 rushing yards. I have higher expectations for Mayfield this week.
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You know I love the revenge game angle, and Darnold is facing his former team this week. We'll see how he does in his debut with the Panthers, but he has plenty of weapons around him with Christian McCaffrey back, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall. Darnold is only a starting option in two-quarterback and Superflex leagues, but this could be a strong start for him in Carolina.
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It's great to have Burrow back following last year's knee injury, and hopefully he's at 100 percent. But this won't be an easy game for him against a revamped Vikings defense, which gets a huge boost with guys like Danielle Hunter, Anthony Barr and Michael Pierce back, along with additions in Patrick Peterson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Mackenzie Alexander and Xavier Woods. I'd take a wait and see approach with Burrow in Week 1 if you can in a one-quarterback league.
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I'm excited for Winston as the starter for the Saints, but I'd also like to wait and see how he does before starting him in a one-quarterback league. For starters, he doesn't have Michael Thomas (ankle) for at least the first five games, which is a downgrade. And we don't know how Sean Payton will use Taysom Hill in tandem with Winston to take him off the field. This isn't an easy matchup against the Packers, and the Saints lost their home-field advantage with the game moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida. Give Winston time, if you can, before making him a Fantasy starter.
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In seven road games last year, Roethlisberger averaged just 19.6 Fantasy points per game. Included in that was a trip to Buffalo in Week 14 when Roethlisberger was 21-of-37 passing for 187 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions for 17 Fantasy points. Hopefully, he does better than that this week, but Pittsburgh's revamped offensive line will be tested against the Bills. I'd only be starting Roethlisberger in two-quarterback and Superflex leagues this week.
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With safety Derwin James (knee) back and edge rusher Joey Bosa (concussion) healthy, this Chargers defense could be scary, including a promising young linebacker in Kenneth Murray. This game isn't expected to be high-scoring based on the projected points total (44.5 from William Hill), and Fitzpatrick shouldn't be started in one-quarterback leagues this week. You might need him in two-quarterback and Superflex leagues, but I'm not expecting a big game from Fitzpatrick in this matchup.
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Similar to Fitzpatrick, I don't expect a lot of points from Herbert given the defense he's facing in Washington. The pass rush will be a problem for him, led by Chase Young and Montez Sweat, and the secondary isn't easy either, which features Kendall Fuller and Landon Collins back. Herbert is not a must-sit quarterback in all leagues, but he could struggle relative to normal expectations. That's why he's listed in this category, so use caution with him this week.
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Running Backs
Williams will likely see a big workload Monday night after Gus Edwards was lost for the season with a torn ACL on Thursday. We'll see how much the Ravens will use Le'Veon Bell, but Williams will be put in the spotlight in a plus matchup. I like him as a starter in non-PPR leagues and a flex play in PPR. If Williams has a strong game against the Raiders, who struggled against opposing running backs last season, then he could be the leader of Baltimore's backfield moving forward. Edwards, J.K. Dobbins (ACL) and Justice Hill (Achilles) are done for the year, but Williams will compete with Bell, Latavius Murray and potentially Devonta Freeman for the lead role. I'm hopeful Williams does well in Week 1 and can solidify himself as the starter all year.
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This game could be a high-scoring affair based on the projected points total (52 from William Hill), and Edmonds should be the lead back for the Cardinals. He'll definitely work in the passing game, and we'll see what happens on rushing downs when it comes to James Conner. I only like Edmonds as a flex play in non-PPR leagues, but I would start him in all PPR formats in this potential shootout. And Conner can be a sleeper as well, but only use him as a flex in non-PPR leagues.
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This isn't going to be an easy matchup for Gaskin given the changes the Patriots made on defense, especially to shore up their run defense with guys like Dont'a Hightower, Davon Godchaux and Christian Barmore. But Gaskin is one of my guys this year, and I don't plan to sit him this week. The Dolphins ran all over New England in Week 15 last year with Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida combining for 35 carries, 208 yards and a touchdown with Gaskin out, so he has big shoes to fill. But he's going to be Miami's lead running back, and he should make plays in the passing game. Gaskin is a strong No. 2 running back this week.
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I'm concerned about Sanders' season-long Fantasy outlook, but I would start him this week against the Falcons as a No. 2 running back in all leagues. And hopefully he plays well with Jalen Hurts like he did in three starts with him last season, scoring at least 17 PPR points in two of those outings. While Sanders might lose touches to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, this week he should still lead the Eagles in touches. And I like his chances to deliver a strong performance against the Falcons.
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White is one of my favorite plays this week in PPR, and he should be at least a flex option. I expect Mac Jones to lean on White as a viable option in the passing game. He also had seven catches in two games against Miami last year. Damien Harris is also worth using as a starter in non-PPR leagues and a flex option in PPR, but I like White as the Patriots best running back this week in PPR given his role.
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Hunt should be considered a borderline starter in PPR, and he could be heavily involved if the Chiefs are chasing points. He scored at Kansas City in the divisional round of the playoffs with six carries for 32 yards, and he also added one catch for 2 yards. Nick Chubb is a must-start running back in all leagues, but Hunt could have a big game if the Browns need to make a comeback on the road.
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We'll see how Tampa Bay plans to use all three running backs this week with Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard, but I like Jones the best given the expected game flow of Tampa Bay likely playing with a lead. He should get the most carries, and Dallas should again struggle against the run this year. Fournette is a sleeper in all leagues, and Bernard is worth using as a flex option in PPR. But I like Jones the best given that the Buccaneers should win this game at home.
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At some point this season, we should see Javonte Williams as the best running back for the Broncos. He might even be the best Denver running back this week. But Gordon will likely lead the team in touches against the Giants, and I would use him as a flex. New York's run defense should be tough, but the Broncos should be playing with a lead in this game. Williams also has flex appeal in this matchup, but give Gordon the slight edge over Williams as the best Denver running back early in the year.
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The Texans will use Ingram, Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson in a committee, but Ingram might have the best chance for success based on his role in the preseason. And if the Texans are playing with a lead, as shocking as that might seem, Ingram could play well against the Jaguars. I like him as a flex option, with his value higher in non-PPR leagues, and we'll see if Houston can pull off an upset in what might be the Texans best chance to win a game this year.
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The Athletic reported this week that the Colts want Hines to get more touches this season, and he could be needed in the passing game with T.Y. Hilton (neck) hurt. This game also projects to be a high-scoring affair based on the projected points (49 from William Hill), and Seattle was top five last season in receptions allowed to running backs. Jonathan Taylor is a must-start Fantasy option in all leagues, but Hines is worth using as a flex in PPR.
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Jacobs will hopefully get off to a fast start in this game, but he typically struggles when the Raiders are losing. And we'll see how Las Vegas plans to use Jacobs in tandem with Kenyan Drake. The Ravens run defense should make it tough on the new offensive line for the Raiders, and I would only use Jacobs as a flex option this week at best, with his value higher in non-PPR leagues.
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Lions coach Dan Campbell said D'Andre Swift (groin) is "ready to go," but we'll see if he gets his full workload. Jamaal Williams could have some sleeper appeal if Swift struggles, but neither is worth trusting against this 49ers defense. Last season, despite dealing with several injuries, San Francisco was still among the best teams against opposing running backs. And the 49ers should get after the Lions and Swift. I would only trust Swift as a flex in this matchup, with his value higher in PPR.
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The Jets are likely going to use three running backs this week with Carter, Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson, which could be a mess. While I like Carter the best of this group long-term, I don't want to trust him this week against the Panthers. It's not a difficult matchup, and maybe the former Tar Heel going back to North Carolina for his NFL debut will be extra motivation. But his potential for an inconsistent workload makes him risky as a Fantasy starter in the majority of leagues.
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We know the Bills are going to rotate running backs with Moss and Devin Singletary, and maybe Breida gets in the mix as well. Based on the preseason, Singletary enters Week 1 with the most upside, but none of the Buffalo running backs are more than flex options. Last year against the Steelers in Week 14, Moss was held to 13 carries for 43 yards and no receptions. If he doesn't score this week then his Fantasy production could be minimal.
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Barkley is not a must-sit option, and it's hard to bench him if he's expected to play. I have Barkley in a couple of leagues, and I'm starting him this week because of a lack of better options. But we don't know what his expected workload will be coming off last year's knee injury, and the Giants may ease him into the season, especially with a short turnaround in Week 2 when the Giants play Washington on Thursday night. I hope Barkley comes out and dominates, but he's a risky Fantasy play for Week 1.
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Like Barkley, it's hard to sit Montgomery, but this is a tough matchup for him against the Rams. Last year, Montgomery played at Los Angeles in Week 7, and he finished with 14 carries for 48 yards and five catches for 21 yards. We love that involvement in the passing game, which should continue, but under 50 rushing yards would be miserable, especially if he fails to score. I'm also starting Montgomery in a couple of leagues because I don't have other options, but I'm not expecting a big performance this week.
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Wide Receiver
Anderson is reunited with Sam Darnold, and the two will take on their former team this week at home. Anderson should have the chance for a strong first game, and he started last season on a high note for the Panthers with at least 17 PPR points in four of his first five games. While Christian McCaffrey is back, and the Panthers added Terrace Marshall to replace Curtis Samuel, look for Darnold to feature Anderson quite a bit this week -- and all year.
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Aiyuk is over the hamstring injury that bothered him toward the end of the preseason, and he should be ready to go for Week 1 in a plus matchup. While Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah could be a problem for Aiyuk, hopefully he picks up where last season ended when he scored at least 20 PPR points in five of his final six games. We'll see how Aiyuk does sharing the ball with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, but I like Aiyuk as a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver this week.
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Shenault will have to share targets with D.J. Chark (finger) and Marvin Jones (shoulder) now that both are healthy, but Shenault should be the favorite option for Trevor Lawrence in Week 1 against the Texans. He closed last season on a high note with at least 15 PPR points in three of his final five games, and he played well in the final preseason game against Dallas with three catches for 33 yards and a touchdown on three targets. Houston's defense shouldn't be a problem for Shenault this week, and he should be considered a borderline starter in all formats.
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The hope is Jeudy's strong training camp and preseason carries over to the real games, and I like him as a quality No. 2 Fantasy receiver this week in all leagues. Teddy Bridgewater will hopefully lean on Jeudy, even with a crowded receiving corps with Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. Against the Giants, Jeudy should have the chance to make plenty of plays, especially if he stays in the slot and can avoid lining up against James Bradberry. Jeudy is a breakout candidate for me, and I'm hoping he starts the season off with a big performance.
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Not many teams have a third receiver on the level of Brown, but he should still produce plenty of points this season behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, starting Thursday against the Cowboys. Last year, Brown closed the regular season with at least 13 PPR points in five of his final seven games, and he had at least six targets in five of those outings. The Buccaneers should do whatever they want against this Dallas defense, and all three receivers for Tampa Bay are worth starting in all leagues in Week 1.
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In two games against Jacksonville last season, Cooks had 47 PPR points combined with 11 catches for 244 yards and two touchdowns on 21 targets. Now, that was with Deshaun Watson, and Tyrod Taylor is the new starter in Houston, which is a downgrade. But Cooks should command plenty of attention from Taylor in a plus matchup, making him a borderline starter in all leagues.
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Smith will make his NFL debut against the Falcons this week, and hopefully it's the start of a brilliant career. He should have the chance for plenty of targets from Jalen Hurts, and Atlanta is coming off a season where the Falcons allowed the third-most Fantasy points to opposing receivers. The last time Smith played in Atlanta it was the SEC Championship Game for Alabama against Florida in December, and Smith had 15 catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns. We'd love to see him do that again.
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Waddle has been Miami's No. 1 receiver in the preseason with Will Fuller and DeVante Parker battling injuries, and Fuller won't play this week because he's suspended. While Parker might be 100 percent, this should be a game where Tua Tagovailoa leans on Waddle, and the Patriots have a depleted secondary with Stephon Gilmore (quad) out. Even though J.C. Jackson and Jonathan Joseph are solid corners, you should still consider Waddle a No. 3 Fantasy receiver this week in all leagues.
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Brown loves Week 1. He's played in two season openers in his career, and he has nine catches for 248 yards and two touchdowns in those games for a combined 45 PPR points. We'll see if he can make it 3 for 3 with big games in openers, and you should expect Lamar Jackson to lean on Brown against the Raiders. While their secondary got better this offseason with the addition of Casey Hayward, I'm excited to see what Brown can do indoors at Las Vegas.
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Meyers was excellent the last time he faced the Dolphins in Week 15 last year with seven catches for 111 yards on 10 targets, and it would be great to see him have a repeat performance in Week 1. Meyers will hopefully stay in the slot for the Patriots and avoid Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, and Mac Jones should lean on Meyers quite a bit. He's a quality No. 3 PPR receiver this week at home.
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Golladay will hopefully be fine following the hamstring injury that kept him out for most of August, but he missed valuable practice time with new quarterback Daniel Jones. And now he has to face a tough secondary in Denver, which features Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby and Patrick Surtain II. I'd rather see Golladay play before starting him in all leagues, and he's just a No. 3 Fantasy receiver at best for Week 1.
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Callaway is now the No. 1 receiver for the Saints until Michael Thomas (ankle) returns, but that means he's going to face a tough matchup from the Packers and cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Kevin King. We'll find out quickly if Callaway is ready to handle that type of attention, but he excelled in the preseason in matchups against Ravens cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters and Jacksonville's Shaquill Griffin. I'd use Callaway as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver this week, but I don't have high expectations in his first real game as the No. 1 guy.
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Beckham is back from last year's ACL injury, and hopefully he's ready to go at 100 percent. I want to wait a week before starting him, although he could benefit if this game becomes a shootout, with the Browns forced to throw. He didn't play in the preseason, and Cleveland could limit his snaps. Beckham also scored 11 PPR points or less in four of the six full games he played in last year, so he's not a slam-dunk starter even when healthy.
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The drops in the preseason shouldn't make you panic on Chase, but it is something to watch. And I'd rather watch Chase play this week than start him in the majority of leagues. He's actually my third favorite Bengals receiver this week against the Vikings behind Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but this should be a tough matchup. Minnesota revamped its secondary with Patrick Peterson, Mackenzie Alexander and Xavier Woods joining the Vikings, and Chase could struggle in his NFL debut.
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Claypool struggled in Week 14 at Buffalo last year with just three catches for 15 yards on six targets, and I'm concerned about his production again this week. I would actually start Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster over Claypool in PPR, and the Bills will use cornerbacks Tre'Davious White and Levi Wallace to help keep Claypool in check. He should still be considered a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, but I don't like this setup on the road in the rematch against the Bills.
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You're likely not sitting Robinson this week, but he's just a No. 2 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues given the matchup against the Rams and cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Last year in Week 7 at Los Angeles, Robinson had four catches for 70 yards on four targets, which included a season-best 42-yard reception. Darious Williams could also make things hard on Robinson if the two match up, but if he gets followed by Ramsey then it could be a long day for Robinson -- and Fantasy managers -- this week. The Rams also allowed a league-low seven touchdowns to receivers in 2020 and should be tough to score on again.
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Tight End
Higbee missed last year's game against the Bears in Week 7, but Gerald Everett had a solid performance with four catches for 28 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Higbee has done well in his career when Everett hasn't played, and Everett is now in Seattle. It helps Higbee that the Bears were No. 2 in Fantasy points allowed to tight ends last year.
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Gesicki should have the chance for an increased role with Will Fuller (suspension) out, and I expect Tua Tagovailoa will lean on him. Gesicki has typically done well when one of the top receivers in Miami doesn't play -- think Preston Williams each of the past two years -- and hopefully that trend continues. This isn't an easy matchup against the Patriots, but Gesicki should be considered a low-end starter this week in all leagues.
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I'm hopeful Goedert stands out above Zach Ertz this week and all season, but I'm a little concerned Ertz could be the better tight end in Philadelphia once again. For this week, I'd consider starting both given the Falcons defense, especially against tight ends. Last year, Atlanta was No. 3 in Fantasy points allowed to the position, and hopefully Jalen Hurts leans on Goedert and Ertz in this matchup. Ertz should be considered a sleeper.
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Hooper ended the regular season last year on a high note with at least 13 PPR points in each of his final three outings. He had another big game in the wild-card round of the playoffs against the Steelers (17 PPR points), but he struggled against the Chiefs in the divisional round with two catches for 16 yards on three targets. That's obviously concerning, but I would go back to Hooper this week as a low-end starter, especially if Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu (illness) is out because of COVID-19 protocols.
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Smith will make his Patriots debut in Week 1 against Miami, and we'll see if Hunter Henry (shoulder) plays as well. Smith should be a featured part of New England's offense, and hopefully Mac Jones leans on him in this matchup. The Dolphins were tough on tight ends last season, but Smith should be a difference maker given his ability to move around the offense. He's a low-end starter for Week 1.
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Kroft is an option for Fantasy managers in deeper leagues, and he should prove to be a valuable weapon for Zach Wilson this season. Jamison Crowder (illness) could be out in Week 1 because of COVID-19 protocols, which could mean more targets for Kroft. He could be the third receiving option for Wilson behind Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, who are worth using as No. 3 Fantasy receivers. Last year, Carolina was No. 8 in Fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
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I'm hopeful that Jarwin will distance himself from Dalton Schultz to be the lead tight end in Dallas, but both could share the No. 1 role all season and for Week 1 at Tampa Bay. Even though the Buccaneers were No. 10 in Fantasy points allowed to tight ends, this is a matchup I would prefer to avoid. Keep an eye on Jarwin because he still has sleeper appeal for the season, but leave him on your bench this week.
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Cook is the new No. 1 tight end for the Chargers, and hopefully he can continue to be a low-end No. 1 Fantasy tight end in all leagues. But I'm not starting him in Week 1 at Washington. This defense should be tough on tight ends all year, and the Football Team allowed just two touchdowns to tight ends in the final 12 games last season. Cook is only worth starting in deeper leagues this week.
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Ebron will likely remain the No. 1 tight end for the Steelers this season, but he's going to lose playing time to rookie Pat Freiermuth. And Ebron's not worth starting this week against the Bills. Last year in Week 14 at Buffalo, Ebron was held to two catches for 30 yards on five targets. I'm concerned he could have similar production this week, and he should be kept on your bench in deeper leagues.
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I'm hopeful Fant is 100 percent, but he's been dealing with a leg injury for over two weeks. The Broncos could opt to limit his snaps, and his targets could be an issue since he shares the field with quality receivers in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Denver will also likely lean on the ground game this week, and the Giants were tough on tight ends last season, allowing just four touchdowns to the position. Fant has just one touchdown in his past 13 games, and he should be considered just a low-end starter in PPR this week.
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DST
Broncos (at NYG)
Denver gets to face Daniel Jones, who has 39 turnovers in 27 career games. Saquon Barkley (knee) and Kenny Golladay (hamstring) might not be at 100 percent. The offensive line for the Giants is still a concern as well. I like the Broncos DST as a top-five Fantasy option for Week 1. And Denver also faces Jacksonville in Week 2 and the Jets in Week 3, which should also be favorable matchups.
- Vikings (at CIN)
- Panthers (vs. NYJ)
- Seahawks (at IND)
Colts (vs. SEA)
The Seahawks offense will be tough to slow down, and Seattle was able to get left tackle Duane Brown signed and ready for Week 1, shoring up the offensive line. The Colts DST will have plenty of positive moments this year, but the early-season schedule of Seattle, the Rams, Tennessee, Miami and Baltimore could be tough. I would avoid the Colts DST for most of those matchups.
KICKERS
Gay took over as the Rams kicker last season, and he converted nine field goals in a row to end the year, including two games with 10 Fantasy points over that span. I'm expecting the Rams to move the ball on the Bears this week, and Gay should be a top-10 Fantasy option in all leagues.
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Boswell had just an extra point in Week 14 at Buffalo last season with no field goal attempts. He had one game last season with double digits in Fantasy points, and the Bills were No. 10 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing kickers last year.
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So who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 1 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that has out-performed experts big-time.