Fantasy Football production is a balance of opportunity versus talent. Opportunity can make a player startable, but it's talent that makes them a league-winner. It's fair to debate how much league-winning talent David Johnson and Melvin Gordon have left, but their opportunity to make an impact in Week 16 with Phillip Lindsay and Duke Johnson out makes them must start options.
We saw just how good David Johnson can be without Duke Johnson in Week 15, when David Johnson set career highs with 11 catches for 106 yards. While it's not fair to expect him to repeat, it is worth noting that 23.5% of the Texans targets have gone to running backs since Will Fuller was suspended. Also, even as David Johnson has aged he's remained remarkably efficient in the passing game, averaging more than 10 yards per catch in 2019, and 9.89 in 2020.
As for Gordon, even before Lindsay was out, we had interest in him after his two-touchdown game against Buffalo. Gordon has at least 81 yards and 12 PPR points in each of his last three games. Lindsay missed three games earlier this year and Gordon accumulated 240 total yards and averaged 18 PPR points per game against the Steelers, Buccaneers, and Jets. His Week 16 opponent, the Chargers, won't offer much resistance at all, especially without Joey Bosa.
More Week 16 help: Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | Starts & Sits, Sleepers & Busts | PPR Cheat Sheet | Non-PPR Cheat Sheet | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | Matchup Notes | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: RB | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: WR | Waiver Wire | Who Can You Trust?
Week 16 RB Preview
The following players are being projected as out for Week 16:
Numbers to know
- 18% -- Andy Dalton has thrown nearly one-fifth of his passes to running backs.
- 17 -- Leonard Fournette saw 17 touches in his first start without Ronald Jones.
- 106.1 -- David Montgomery leads all running backs with 106.1 PPR Fantasy points since Week 12.
- 24 -- J.D. McKissic has 24 carries over the past two weeks.
- 2.5 -- Only 12 running backs are averaging at least 2.5 yards after contact per attempt. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are two of them. They have big upside (and no floor) against the Patriots.
- 14.1 -- Darrell Henderson averaged 14.1 PPR Fantasy points per game Weeks 2-7 when Cam Akers barely played.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Jeff Wilson RB
MIA Miami • #23
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Wilson has scored double digit Fantasy points in four of five games in which he's had double-digit carries. He does have a minor ankle injury to monitor.
LAC L.A. Chargers • #30
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Ekeler is my top ranked back on the main slate and the absence of Hunter Henry could mean even more short-area targets.
So who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 16 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big-time last season.