The MLB All-Star break is about to wrap up, and we're gearing up for what should be a great second half of baseball. First, let's take a quick look back at the season's first half. Remember back in spring training when a subsection of baseball fandom freaked out about the changes, namely the pitch clock? Those concerns have fallen by the wayside for the overwhelming majority of fans. As more than one player has pointed out in the last several months, the pace of play isn't rushed, it just isn't moving along at a snail's pace.
Batting average is up, runs per game are up, attendance is up and the average time of the game has dropped significantly. It appears to be working with the general public:
- Attendance is up 8.06% year over year.
- There have been four straight weekends of over 1.5 million in attendance, the first time that has happened since 2017.
- MLB.tv is up 9% on minutes watched over last season.
- Local ratings for the 29 US-based teams are up 3%, despite all the issues with local channels (RSNs).
- An MLB survey found 86% of people in the 18-24 and 25-34 age brackets said they are more likely to watch MLB now due to the rule changes with similar numbers on them being more likely to attend games.
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That means the product itself has a chance to grab hold of the audience and create some lifelong fans. There is a ton of opportunity here even if we limited it to just the team level.
- New blood is always fun. The Reds sit in first place in the NL Central and haven't made the playoffs in a full season since 2013. The Marlins hold the top NL wild-card spot and haven't made the full-season playoffs since 2003. Few expected the Diamondbacks to be a strong contender and they are tied for first in the NL West. Even fewer expected the Rangers to sit in first place above the defending champs, but there they are. The Orioles are really strong and haven't been to the playoffs since 2016.
- Big-time brands are helpful, too. The Braves won it all in 2021 and won 100-plus games last season. They look better than both of those teams right now and are all kinds of fun to watch. The Dodgers are tied for first place. The Astros are again in playoff position. The Yankees are only a game out of the last AL wild card and the Red Sox are two back. The defending NL champion Phillies are a game back. The Giants are in playoff position.
- If the above group contains some villains in the eyes of many fans (notably the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros for varying reasons), how about the lower-payroll types that keep finding success? The Guardians are in first, again, in the AL Central while the Rays used a 13-0 start to propel them to the top of the mighty AL East all season to this point.
- Can one of the hyped preseason teams who have disappointed make a miracle run? We're talking about the Mets and/or Padres.
- There is all kinds of intrigue around the Angels and you know who.
And so much more! It's possible the World Series champion wasn't even mentioned, given that the Brewers, Mariners, Twins and Blue Jays are contending.
It is going to be an amazingly fun and -- dare I say -- unpredictable second half in the 2023 Major League Baseball season. It's going to happen in front of a lot of extra eyeballs this time around, too. Let's get to it!
Biggest Movers
4
Orioles
6
Giants
Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Remember when the Rays were the easy and obvious No. 1 every single week here for a bit? The Braves hit the All-Star break with a FOUR-game lead over the Rays for the best record in baseball. A 27-5 run to close the first half will do that. | -- | 20-9 |
| 2 |  | The Orioles are two games out, but they are tied in the loss column. I'll give them the nod here for a few reasons. First, they are better in the last month and have added some new, young talent. Meanwhile, the Rays pitcher injuries are really starting to hinder them. If we wanted to look head-to-head, the Orioles win that battle three games to two. And, finally, my last-resort tiebreaker is who I'd predict to win a seven-game series right now. I'd take the Orioles. | 4 | 19-11 |
| 3 |  | They lost seven of eight before the break and surely felt like they needed the rest. The Orioles are right on their ass, too. The good news for the Rays is they should have a soft landing here for the second half, starting with a three-game series in Kansas City. | 1 | 14-18 |
| 4 |  | Other than when they lose to the Braves (which is no crime; everyone does), they just keep winning. And for the "unsustainable" people, who have arrived at that conclusion by looking at run differential and nothing deeper, the Marlins have a plus-52 run differential in their last 43 games. The season-long total is skewed by roughly four losses early in the season. Are we really going to act like four games from the start of the season through May 3 can predict the rest of the season? Look deeper. Be better. | 3 | 8-24 |
| 5 |  | Mookie Betts hit .365/.471/1.039 with eight doubles, nine homers, 19 RBI and 18 runs in his last 15 games before the break. Ignore the Home Run Derby performance. He's on a heater when it matters. | 3 | 19-13 |
| 6 |  | Tough first-half finish for the Rangers, as they went 5-11 after June 23. They are fortunate they bought themselves so much cushion after an excellent start. A big homestand is on tap here to start the second half against three playoff-caliber teams (Guardians, Rays and Dodgers). | 3 | 16-14 |
| 7 |  | Let's hope Corbin Carroll's shoulder holds it together. | 3 | 14-17 |
| 8 |  | Can a team in the second wild-card spot be a sleeping giant? Because they really feel like a sleeping giant. | 3 | 10-19 |
| 9 |  | Kyle Schwarber is hitting .184 with 22 bombs. The only players to ever top 30 homers with a sub-.200 batting average are Joey Gallo (.199, 38 HR, 2021), Eugenio Suarez (.198, 31 HR, 2021) and Mark Reynolds (.198, 32 HR, 2010). | 3 | 21-11 |
| 10 |  | James Paxton and Brayan Bello are a very nice 1-2 punch in the rotation right now, just like everyone drew it up. | 3 | 17-13 |
| 11 |  | Are you ready to argue that a Home Run Derby fixed a player? Because Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to have a monster second half. Look, if you're gonna blame the Derby anytime a player has a slump afterward, it's gotta go both ways. | 3 | 15-17 |
| 12 |  | The Brewers won 11 of their last 17 games before the break, including taking the Reds down in two of three. They'll get the Reds again to start the second half, too. | 3 | 19-11 |
| 13 |  | The Reds lead the majors with 112 stolen bases. Elly De La Cruz has 16 in only 30 games. | 3 | 16-15 |
| 14 |  | For me, the offensive issues are due to age (read: Old), personnel and Aaron Judge's injury, but it'll be fun to see if Sean Casey makes a difference now as hitting coach. | 3 | 20-12 |
| 15 |  | The Giants lost seven of their last 11 heading to the break, but let's be honest: Sitting eight games over .500 right now is a net positive. | 6 | 14-16 |
| 16 |  | Well lookie what we have here! The Mariners are 7-2 with a plus-25 run differential in July and all three opponents are currently in playoff position. Can they keep it going? | 3 | 17-14 |
| 17 |  | The Guardians were 5 1/2 games back of the Twins on June 2. As they chipped and chipped away in the ensuing weeks, I just kept thinking one thing: We've seen this movie before. | -- | 19-10 |
| 18 |  | Before this season, the lowest first-half OPS of Carlos Correa's career was .803. This season it was .700. | -- | 17-13 |
| 19 |  | They were fully on course to be strong buyers ahead of the trade deadline and, perhaps most importantly, would've been able to avoid the Shohei Ohtani trade talk. And then they lost nine of their last 10 and Mike Trout got hurt. | 3 | 11-20 |
| 20 |  | Is it too late? Everything about this team screams that it should be much better. Winning five of six heading into the break provides some hope. They need to get much hotter than that, though. | 3 | 16-18 |
| 21 |  | Cody Bellinger's last 15 games before the break: .436/.467/.600. Since the Cubs are likely sellers, again, expect to see his name a lot the next two weeks. | 1 | 18-12 |
| 22 |  | That six-game winning streak crawled the Mets back to within a gasp of the playoff picture, but losing those last two really hurt. It's still possible, but they've gotta get really hot really quickly. | -- | 15-14 |
| 23 |  | Paul Skenes certainly seems worth the excitement, so there's that. | 2 | 14-18 |
| 24 |  | I took under 89 wins for this group heading into the season and it seems that it won't take much longer until I win. I am obviously the smartest man alive. | -- | 14-17 |
| 25 |  | There's been a lot of bad news with the big-league roster here in the last few years, but let's not gloss over Riley Greene. The fifth overall pick out of high school in 2019 is hitting .305 with a 133 OPS+ at age 22. | -- | 18-13 |
| 26 |  | Through his first 80 games this season, Joey Meneses had two home runs. In his last three games before the All-Star break, he hit four. | -- | 14-15 |
| 27 |  | Luis Robert is having an MVP-type season and is young enough to be the franchise centerpiece through the upcoming rebuild. I'd trade just about anyone else off the MLB roster who would bring value back. | -- | 6-25 |
| 28 |  | They are on pace to go 61-101. The franchise record for losses in a season is 98. | -- | 7-23 |
| 29 |  | They are on pace to go 46-116. The franchise record for losses in a season is 106. | -- | 19-13 |
| 30 |  | They are on pace to go 44-118. There has never been a season in which two teams lost at least 111 games (two 110-loss teams happened twice, most recently in 2021). | -- | 15-17 |
