graphic-mlbprtrout.png
Kim O'Reilly, CBS Sports

I know we have to say it, at times, but you know what really annoys me in the early going of each Major League Baseball season? How often we have to say things like "it's early." I'm sure I've done it my fair share of times in the past, but you know what especially drives me up the wall? The overuse of "sustainable" or "unsustainable." 

I understand why such things need to be said and most people don't read as much about baseball on a daily basis as I do, but for me it's overload. 

Regardless, now that we're in July, we can stop worrying about any "it's early" talk. Every single team has passed 81 games, which means we're past the halfway point. It is most certainly not early anymore! 

If the playoffs started today, here's how the field would look: 

American League

1. Rays
2. Rangers
3. Twins vs. 6. Yankees
4. Orioles vs. 5. Astros

National League

1. Braves
2. Diamondbacks
3. Brewers vs. 6. Giants
4. Marlins vs. 5. Dodgers

Before we dive into the Official Power Rankings, let's take a look at some teams outside that would-be playoff field who have a chance to make a run. 

  • The Reds are actually tied with the Brewers for the NL Central lead, but the Brewers lead the season series three games to one. Still, the Reds are a legitimate threat to take that division and should not be ignored. They are actually only one game behind the final wild-card spot, too. 
  • The Phillies started slow last season and ended up in the World Series. This season, they started the year without Bryce Harper and Ranger Suárez and were also scrambling to replace Rhys Hoskins after his late-spring ACL tear. They have gone 19-7 since June 2 and sit just 1 1/2 games out of the playoffs. They are a strong bet to replace someone. 
  • The Blue Jays are only 1 1/2 games out of the last AL wild card. They've been in playoff position for much of the season and once they get hot again (and they will), they'll climb back in. It's just a matter of where their final hot or cold streak land them. 
  • The Angels have either been a tease or just plain bad for years, but they have the best player in the world and have hung around in contention all season. I could definitely envision a scenario where they make the playoffs. Of course, I could also very easily envision them losing 90 games. They are only two back right now. 
  • The Guardians haven't been above .500 since they were 10-9, but in the pitiful AL Central, they are in a virtual tie, trailing only by percentage points. They caught fire down the stretch last season and it propelled them to the ALDS, so it's possible that happens again. 
  • The Red Sox seem pretty damn mediocre, but sitting just 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot means they must be taken seriously as a contender. 
  • The Mariners don't seem to have "it" this season, but there's talent there which is underachieving (hello, Julio) and they aren't too far out of it. Only five games, to be exact. 
  • The Cubs are far from inspiring. They've basically looked very good for two short stretches and otherwise have been bad, but they are within striking range (six games out) in a bad division and have talent. 
  • The Padres and Mets are worth discussing, but they could both already be cooked. Even with great talent, they'd have to play at a ridiculous pace to make the playoffs. They have the same record and in order to reach 90 wins, for example, they'd have to go 52-27. That means they'd have to play at the pace of a 107-win team the rest of the way. Has either team looked capable of doing that? Not even close, so mentioning these teams here is charitable.  

I'm declaring every team I did not mention eliminated for this season with the Mets and Padres teetering on the brink. There's still plenty of baseball to play, but it is no longer too "early" to make such a declaration. 

Biggest Movers
5 Astros
6 Blue Jays
Rk
Teams
  
Chg
Rcrd
1 Braves On Friday, June 2, the Braves lost. It was their third loss in four games and came in Arizona fresh off losing a series to the hapless A's. Since then, the Braves have gone an outrageous 23-3 and have outscored their opponents by 82 runs. -- 20-9
2 Rays Wander Franco not being named an All-Star immediately (he was added as an injury replacement) was a joke. He absolutely should be there and MLB should be marketing the hell out of him. -- 14-18
3 Rangers They've now lost six of their last nine. We knew some level of regression was coming, but the big question is whether or not they'll be able to hold off the Astros. Also, take note that there's a HUGE gap between number two and number three in these rankings. -- 17-15
4 Diamondbacks The Corbin Carroll injury is concerning, but at least he hasn't been placed on the injured list yet. That is to say, perhaps it's not very serious and he'll be back dominating soon enough. 2 14-18
5 Astros Here they come? The champs have won five of seven and Yordan Alvarez is starting to take swings in the batting cage. 5 11-20
6 Orioles Worrisome or just ebbs and flows? The Orioles have been a mediocre team for over a month. They are 16-16 since May 25. 2 20-11
7 Marlins The Marlins are now 1-9 against the Braves this season. They are playing at the pace of a 101-win team when they don't play the Braves. Fortunately for the Marlins, they don't have to deal with the Braves again until Sept. 15. 2 9-24
8 Dodgers Last week I mentioned the Dodgers' weak upcoming schedule. They did not take care of business in Kansas City, losing a series to the Royals. The Royals hadn't won a series since mid-May. 1 20-13
9 Giants They've now lost four of five, but the six-game homestand to close the first half is very workable (three vs. the Mariners and three vs. the Rockies). 4 15-17
10 Reds With all the turmoil the rotation has had between injuries and poor performance, you simply cannot say enough about the job Andrew Abbott has done. He started the season with Double-A Chattanooga. Through six MLB starts, he has a 1.21 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings. Also, his no decision on Sunday was another reminder of the brilliance (please note dripping sarcasm) of the pitcher win stat. 2 16-15
11 Yankees Giancarlo Stanton is now hitting .195/.259/.398. Remember, he's signed through 2027. -- 20-13
12 Phillies Even through this good stretch, the offense still isn't all the way there. Bryce Harper's home run power hasn't returned and JT Realmuto continues to struggle. Trea Turner is showing signs of life, but has still underproduced as well. 1 21-11
13 Red Sox The Red Sox haven't been more than four games above or below .500 since May 21. They've only been more than four games away from .500, either side, 10 days the entire season. They are Even Steven! 2 18-14
14 Blue Jays The Jays continue to be a baffling ballclub. The latest head scratcher was getting swept by the Red Sox at home. 6 15-17
15 Brewers In his last 23 games, Christian Yelich has hit .330/.427/.568. 👀 2 20-11
16 Angels They've got to be very aggressive in front of the trade deadline, right? They should be going all out for this season like it's the last one they'll ever have. Remember, Shohei Ohtani wants to play for a winner and surely the Angels need to make the playoffs to have a chance to keep him in free agency. 2 11-20
17 Guardians The Guardians only have 55 home runs as a team. The next lowest total would be 68 for the Nationals. The Guardians are on pace to hit 107 homers this season and that would be the lowest for any MLB team (excepting 2020, obviously) since the 2015 Braves managed only 100 home runs. 2 20-11
18 Twins I've got some good news, Twins fans. That series in Atlanta was the only time the Twins have to face the Braves this season. 2 17-13
19 Mariners They had lost five of six, but perhaps taking a series against the Rays gets the Mariners going? They have an awfully tough trip before the All-Star break, heading to San Francisco for three games before a four-game series in Houston. 1 17-14
20 Cubs The Cubs are now 2-12 in Jameson Taillon starts this season. He has a 7.07 ERA. 2 19-14
21 Pirates The pop-up winning streaks are hilarious. After their 20-8 start, the Pirates went 6-19, then won six in a row, then went 3-15, then won four straight and have now lost two in a row. 5 14-18
22 Mets They won two in a row and took a series. Maybe this is the start of the season-saving hot streak? It would have to be quite a streak. 2 16-15
23 Padres Starting with those back-to-back bullpen meltdowns in San Francisco, the Padres have gone 3-10 in the last two weeks. Those really might've been the backbreakers on the season. 2 16-18
24 Cardinals The upcoming sell-off is going to be very interesting. 1 14-17
25 Tigers I often lament the still-lingering emphasis from some on pitcher win-loss records, but it is pretty funny that the Tigers' All-Star is a starting pitcher with a 2-6 record (Michael Lorenzen). 3 18-13
26 Nationals The Nats are nearly .500 on the road (21-22), but they are atrocious (13-27) in Nationals Park. 1 15-16
27 White Sox Tim Anderson went 2 for 4 on Sunday to raise his line to .231/.270/.267. Yikes. 2 6-25
28 Rockies The most games the Rockies have ever lost before the All-Star break is 57 (2008). Right now they have 53 losses and face a five-game road trip against the Astros and Giants this coming week. Uh oh. It's gonna be close, isn't it? -- 7-24
29 Royals The Royals were 11-31 at home through Friday and then beat the Dodgers twice in a row in Kauffman Stadium. You can't predict ball! -- 19-13
30 Athletics What was that? A 3-3 week? They are on fire! -- 15-17