Losing a lot can actually be a good thing in the NBA. On Tuesday night, the Magic were reminded of this fact when the reward for their 22-60 record was a lucky break in the lottery that gave them the right to select first in the 2022 NBA Draft.
Who will Orlando take?
That remains undetermined and is worthy of debate. No matter what anybody tries to tell you, this is not 2003 (LeBron James) or 2012 (Anthony Davis) or 2019 (Zion Williamson), all of which were years when every franchise would have selected the same player with the first pick. In 2022, at least three players — Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith — could reasonably go No. 1, and I'm certain you can find mock drafts with each of them going No. 1. But me? I've developed into a Holmgren-believer over the past year and genuinely think the Magic should select him with the No. 1 pick and pair him with former high school teammate and fellow Gonzaga alum Jalen Suggs.
Yes, I know, the center position has never been less valued in the NBA. But awesome centers — like two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, for instance — are still awesome. And Holmgren really could be, and really should be, an awesome center at the NBA level given that he's a 7-foot rim protector who is so skilled offensively that he can bounce it on the perimeter, play-make and reliably sink shots from the 3-point line. Is his skinny frame a concern? Sure. Nobody would suggest otherwise. But I just think it's smarter to focus on what Holmgren is rather than obsess about his possible limitations, and if the Magic do that they'll take this draft's most-talented prospect with this draft's first pick.
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
I understand the concerns about Holmgren's slight frame — but he's such a unique talent that I'd be uncomfortable passing on a 7-foot legitimate rim-protector who can also bounce it like a guard and reliably make 3-pointers. He's the most talented prospect in this draft and should be selected as such.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Banchero is probably the safest option at the top of this draft. He's a big, strong and skilled forward who could be an incredible building block in Oklahoma City alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
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Round 1- Pick 3
Smith still needs to develop in lots of ways but he's already a great shooter and switchable defender who plays with great energy. If he doesn't go first or second — and he obviously could — the Rockets will be thrilled to snag him with the third pick in this draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Ivey is an explosive athlete who plays big and is capable of attacking the rim in a variety of ways. As the Kings continue to build, the Purdue star would be a great option at this point in the draft in part because he could reasonably play beside DeAaron Fox.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Murray is a switchable big who can guard in space and consistently make shots from the perimeter. What he does, at his size, is perfectly suited for the modern NBA and would fit well with a Detroit franchise trying to return to respectability with Cade Cunningham as the centerpiece.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Even though he enrolled in January and was eligible to compete, Sharpe never played at Kentucky in part because the people around him wanted to protect his status as a projected top-10 pick. Unless he really bombs in workouts, it's hard to imagine the explosive athlete going much lower than this considering he's a gifted scorer with the physical tools to be a disruptive defender on the wing in Indiana.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
I'm higher on Agbaji than most simply because I don't understand what's not to like about a 6-5 athlete who is a plus-defender on the wing and excellent 3-point shooter. Once you get past the top-tier prospects in this draft, the Kansas All-American makes as much sense as anybody and would provide Damian Lillard with a new teammate equipped to help from Day One.
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From
Los Angeles Lakers
Round 1 - Pick 8
Davis went from a mostly anonymous power-conference player to a candidate for national player of the year in his sophomore season at Wisconsin. An ankle injury limited him down the stretch, but he showed enough before that to justify his status as a projected lottery pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Duren isn't really the type of floor-spacing big franchises prefer these days, but he's such a physical specimen and great athlete that there's probably a place for him in the top 10 of this draft. At worst, he should be a terrific rim-running and rim-protecting center who alters shots and dunks everything.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Mathurin was the star of Arizona's team that won the Pac-12 and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The 6-6 wing is an impressive athlete and above-average shooter who could lighten the scoring load on Bradley Beal in Washington
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Sochan is the rare sub-100 high school recruit who could be a one-and-done lottery pick. His ability to guard multiple positions in multiple ways is among the reasons he's a tantalizing prospect who is one of the most versatile players available in this draft.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 12
It took Griffin a little while to get comfortable at Duke because of a preseason knee injury that seemed to affect his ability to show his athleticism. But the five-star high school recruit, who is the son of former NBA player Adrian Griffin, eventually showed glimpses of why he's a lottery talent, mostly by proving to be a fantastic 3-point shooter who made 44.7% of his 4.1 attempts from beyond the arc per game.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Williams, like fellow projected lottery pick Duren, is more of a traditional big than a modern big. But any franchise in need of a rim-protector and lob-catcher — like Charlotte — would have to consider him at this point in the draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Branham is a shooting guard with good size and great length who really flourished in the second half of the season. While shooting 41.6% from the 3-point line, the one-and-done standout became the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year and a legitimate lottery option for his home-state franchise.
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From
New Orleans Pelicans
Round 1 - Pick 15
Eason was a breakout star at LSU after transferring following a so-so first season at Cincinnati. He's a versatile frontcourt option who can guard multiple positions and punish defenses in transition opportunities.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
 
Ousmane Dieng
SF
France
• Fr
• 6'9"
/ 185 lbs
Dieng is a long and skilled prospect who still needs to develop but is worth a serious look anywhere outside of the lottery. He might not contribute immediately but definitely projects as an interesting long-term investment with undeniable potential.
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From
Brooklyn Nets
Round 1 - Pick 17
 
Dyson Daniels
SG
G League Ignite
• Fr
• 6'7"
/ 199 lbs
Daniels isn't quite the prospect previous Ignite stars have been but is still a fascinating guard with size who can play with or without the ball. His jumper, at this point, is the biggest area of concern.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Kessler was arguably the best defensive player in college basketball this season while averaging 4.6 blocks per game. He's an incredible rim-protector with the potential to develop into a comfortable perimeter shooter.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Washington mostly played off the ball in his one season at Kentucky but projects as a lead guard in the NBA. Ankle injuries limited him in the second half of the season but the one-and-done Wildcat showed enough before he was hampered to solidify his status as a top-20 pick.
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From
Toronto Raptors
Round 1 - Pick 20
 
Jaden Hardy
SG
G League Ignite
• Fr
• 6'3"
/ 198 lbs
Hardy didn't do much over the past year to help his draft stock — but he's still a likely first-round talent capable of developing into a special player. Being drafted by a franchise like San Antonio would probably be the best thing for the trajectory of his career.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Brown never really became more than a role player in his one season at Baylor, which is notable and somewhat concerning. But the 6-8 wing still has the physical tools to make him worthy of a first-round pick from a Denver franchise desperate to put more talent around Nikola Jokic.
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From
Utah Jazz
Round 1 - Pick 22
The possibility of Tyus Jones leaving via free agency might have Memphis in the market for a point guard. At this point in the draft, the best option would be Chandler — the Memphis-raised product who has won at every level and already possesses a close relationship with Grizzlies' star Ja Morant.
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From
Philadelphia 76ers
Round 1 - Pick 23
Liddell is the type of player who could help Brooklyn's core of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons theoretically compete for a title next season. He's undersized but effective.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Moore shot above 40% from 3-point range in his final season at Duke. The bet here is that his jumper is a translatable skill, which would be valuable in a place like Milwaukee, where chasing championships with Giannis Antetokounmpo is the goal for the foreseeable future.
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From
Boston Celtics
Round 1 - Pick 25
Braun is a wing with size who can guard his position, reliably make jumpers and finish in transition. He's the type of prospect who could flourish in the culture San Antonio has established.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
 
Jean Montero
SG
Overtime Elite
• 6'2"
/ 172 lbs
Jalen Brunson's pending free agency could lead to a departure from Dallas, which might have the Mavericks targeting a primary ball-handler with this pick. If so, Montero, a deep-shooting guard who is still only 18 years old, would be a reasonable option.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Adding a young athlete to the backcourt wouldn't be the worst idea for a Miami franchise that has advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals. Wesley is exactly that and would be a steal at the bottom of the first round if his jumper becomes more consistent.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
With James Wiseman's potential unclear, the Warriors could target a center with their first-round pick. Koloko is the reigning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year with better mobility than most bigs his size.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Baldwin was a projected top-10 pick before he more or less disappeared for a year after choosing to play for his father at Milwaukee. The Grizzlies could afford to take a big swing here and see if they hit on another pick late in the first round.
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From
Phoenix Suns
Round 1 - Pick 30
 
Nikola Jovic
SF
Serbia
• Fr
• 6'10"
/ 205 lbs
Oklahoma City remains very much in rebuild mode with a young core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey. Adding an 18-year-old international prospect like Jovic to the franchise could be a nice long-term move.
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