The undefeated Detroit Pistons get their first real test when they host the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday. It's a 7 p.m. ET tipoff from Little Caesars Arena. Detroit, led by big men Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond, opened with narrow wins over the lowly Nets and Bulls, while Philly comes in 2-1 behind superstar center Joel Embiid, who's averaging 28.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Sportsbooks list Philly as a 1.5-point favorite in the latest 76ers vs. Pistons odds, with the over-under for total points set at 218. Before you make any 76ers vs. Pistons picks, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
This advanced computer model, which powered the three largest fantasy sites, simulates every game 10,000 times to come up with a projected final score and stat lines for every single player.
We can tell you the model expects a lower-scoring game than Vegas is anticipating, projecting 207 points, 11 below the posted total. In fact, the under is hitting in a whopping 70 percent of simulations. The model has also locked in a strong against-the-spread pick that hits 60 percent of the time. You can only see that one at SportsLine.
The model knows 76ers swingman Ben Simmons is questionable with a back injury, and that it would be a big blow to Philly if he cannot play. Simmons is averaging 12.0 points, 9.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists through three games.
Either way, Detroit might put point guards Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith on the floor at the same time. In Saturday's 118-116 win at Chicago, the Pistons scored 43 points in 11-plus minutes with that duo in the lineup.
But just because the Pistons have a strong front line and a versatile lineup doesn't mean they cover against Philly, which expects to challenge for the Eastern Conference crown.
The 76ers swept last season's four-game series, covering each time, and the favorite in this series is an incredible 41-18 against the spread in the past 59 meetings.
J.J. Redick is capable of a huge performance if Simmons sits: Redick poured in 31 points and hit the winning 3-pointer in Saturday's victory over Orlando. And no one can stop Embiid right now. He had 32 points versus the Magic and is a legitimate MVP candidate.
Who wins 76ers vs. Pistons? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to get the strong against-the-spread pick for 76ers-Pistons, all from the advanced computer model that simulated this matchup 10,000 times.