Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks host Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies in a high-profile matchup on Wednesday. Milwaukee is 27-19 this season after a loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Monday. Memphis is 12-1 in the last 13 games, improving to 31-15 overall with a 14-6 road record. Desmond Bane (protocols), Kyle Anderson (protocols), Dillon Brooks (ankle) and Killian Tillie (protocols) are out for the Grizzlies. Jrue Holiday (ankle) is questionable for the Bucks with Brook Lopez (back) ruled out.
Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a 6.5-point favorite at home in the latest Bucks vs. Grizzlies odds, while the over-under for total points is set at 226. Before locking in any Grizzlies vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 56-30 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Grizzlies, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Grizzlies vs. Bucks:
- Bucks vs. Grizzlies spread: Bucks -6.5
- Bucks vs. Grizzlies over-under: 226 points
- MEM: The Grizzlies are 15-5 against the spread in road games
- MIL: The Bucks are 8-14 against the spread in home games
Why the Grizzlies can cover
Memphis garners attention for an explosive, athletic offense, and that is a central reason for the Grizzlies' red-hot stretch entering this game. However, the Grizzlies are also quite effective on defense, allowing only 108.0 points per 100 possessions this season. That efficiency mark ranks in the top 10 of the NBA, with Memphis leading the entire league in steals (10.2 per game) and blocked shots (6.3 per game).
The Grizzlies are generating 15.4 attempts per game, No. 6 in the NBA, and Memphis is allowing opponents to shoot just 51.2 percent on 2-point attempts. The Grizzlies are above-average in free-throw prevention, allowing only 20.7 attempts per game, and Memphis is securing more than 73 percent of available defensive rebounds. Memphis is giving up 12.0 second-chance points per game, falling in the top five of the NBA, and the Grizzlies are facing a Bucks team that is currently below the league average in both assists and field-goal percentage.
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee's defense is strong, as it has been over a multi-season span. The Bucks are allowing fewer than 108 points per 100 possessions, ranking in the top eight of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Opponents are shooting only 43.8 percent from the floor against Milwaukee, with the Bucks allowing 33.9 percent shooting from 3-point distance and fewer than 20 free-throw attempts per game. The Bucks are very good on the glass, securing 73.4 percent of available defensive rebounds, and Milwaukee is in the top 10 of the league in points in the paint allowed (42.3 per game) and fast-break points allowed (11.5 per game).
Memphis is in the bottom 10 of the league in 3-point accuracy and free-throw accuracy on offense, further bolstering Milwaukee's defensive projection. On offense, the Bucks are putting up more than 1.11 points per possession, a top-10 figure in the NBA, and 3-point shooting is a big reason. Milwaukee is making 14.3 3-pointers per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and the Bucks are making more than 36 percent of long-range attempts this season.
How to make Grizzlies vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 216 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Bucks vs. Grizzlies? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.