The NBA showcases a pair of high-profile Game 6 matchups on Thursday evening. In the second game of the doubleheader, the Phoenix Suns host the Denver Nuggets at Footprint Center. Phoenix trails Denver by a 3-2 margin in the 2023 NBA playoff second-round series, with the Suns aiming to avoid elimination with a home win. Deandre Ayton (rib) and Chris Paul (groin) are both out for the Suns. Jamal Murray (illness) is questionable for Denver.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Phoenix as a 2-point favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 226 in the latest Nuggets vs. Suns odds. Before locking in any Suns vs. Nuggets picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Suns and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Suns vs. Nuggets:
- Nuggets vs. Suns spread: Suns -2
- Nuggets vs. Suns over/under: 226 points
- Nuggets vs. Suns money line: Suns -125, Nuggets +105
- DEN: The Nuggets are 20-25 against the spread in road games
- PHX: The Suns are 25-20-1 against the spread in home games
- Nuggets vs. Suns picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Nuggets can cover
The Nuggets are dominant on offense, led by Nikola Jokic. Denver led the NBA in field goal percentage and posted a top-five offensive rating during the regular season, only to actually improve its overall efficiency in the playoffs. The Nuggets are scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason, No. 1 in the Western Conference, and Denver is shooting 48.5% from the field and 38.0% on 3-pointers in those games. Denver also has a stellar 31.4% offensive rebound rate in playoff action, averaging 25.3 assists per game and leading the playoffs with 52.8 points in the paint per contest.
The Nuggets also have the best turnover rate (11.8%) of any playoff team, and Jokic continues to perform at an elite level. After finishing as the MVP runner-up during the regular season, Jokic is averaging 30.6 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game while shooting 53.4% from the field and 48.7% from 3-point range in the playoffs. He has been even better against Phoenix, generating 35.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 10.0 assists per contest in the first five games of the series. See which team to pick here.
Why the Suns can cover
Phoenix's offense is exceptionally difficult to stop. The Suns are scoring 117.6 points per 100 possessions in playoff games, and Phoenix leads the 2023 postseason with 49.8% shooting from the field. The Suns are also playing with incredible pace, leading the playoffs with 18.7 fast break points per game and averaging more than 20 fast break points per game against Denver. The Suns have been adept at creating free throw attempts, averaging 23.7 per game in the playoffs, and Phoenix is generating 25.0 assists and only 11.9 turnovers per game in postseason action.
That playoff effort comes on the heels of a regular season in which Phoenix finished in the top eight of the NBA in offensive rebound rate, second-chance points and 3-point accuracy, and the Suns can rely on a pair of superstars for both production and efficiency. Kevin Durant is averaging over 30 points and 10 rebounds per game in this series, and Devin Booker has arguably been the best player in the 2023 NBA playoffs. Booker is shooting 60.1% from the field and 51.7% on 3-pointers in the postseason while leading the league with 35.9 points per game. See which team to pick here.
How to make Nuggets vs. Suns picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, with four players projected to score more than 21 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Nuggets vs. Suns? And which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Suns spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that is 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
