The Portland Trail Blazers put a sparkling home record on the line on Tuesday evening. The Blazers are 8-1 at home this season, and Portland will face the Denver Nuggets in an important Western Conference matchup. Denver and Portland have identical 9-8 overall records, and the Nuggets are 2-5 on the road in 2021-22. Nikola Jokic (wrist), Michael Porter Jr. (back) and Jamal Murray (knee) are all out for Denver.

Tipoff is at 10 p.m. ET in Portland. The latest Blazers vs. Nuggets odds from Caesars Sportsbook list Portland as a 6.5-point favorite. The over-under for total points is set at 214.5. Before locking in any Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 6 of the 2021-22 NBA season up over $1,200 on all top-rated NBA picks this season. It's also on a stunning 115-76 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread that dates back to last season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Nuggets vs. Blazers and released its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds, betting lines and trends for Blazers vs. Nuggets:

  • Nuggets vs. Blazers spread: Blazers -6.5
  • Nuggets vs. Blazers over-under: 214.5 points
  • Nuggets vs. Blazers money line: Blazers -280, Nuggets +230
  • DEN The Nuggets are 7-10 against the spread this season
  • POR: The Blazers are 7-10 against the spread in 2021-22
Featured Game | Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver is tremendous when shooting inside the 3-point arc, making 55 percent of 2-point attempts. That figure ranks No. 3 in the NBA, and the Nuggets are better than league average in assists (23.6 per game) and turnovers (13.8 per game). Portland is No. 25 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions, and the Blazers are No. 28 in shooting efficiency allowed. Moreover, the Blazers struggle mightily to prevent assists (25.9 assists allowed per game) and Portland forces a turnover on only 13.4 percent of defensive possessions. 

As such, the Nuggets can expect to score consistently in this game, and Denver is playing well on defense. Michael Malone's team is giving up only 1.05 points per possession this season, with the No. 2 mark in the NBA in defensive rebound rate (75.7 percent) and a league-leading mark in second-chance points allowed at 9.9 per game. Opponents are also shooting only 32.4 percent from 3-point distance against the Nuggets, which is key against Portland's attack.

Why the Blazers can cover

Portland has a significant advantage in the backcourt against Denver. Damian Lillard is one of the best perimeter creators in the NBA, averaging 27 points and seven assists per game over the last seven seasons. Lillard keys Portland's attack, but the Blazers also have a bonafide scorer in CJ McCollum. McCollum is shooting 39.6 percent from 3-point range this year, averaging 20.4 points, 4.4 assists and 4.2 rebounds per contest. As such, the Blazers rank in the top five of the NBA in offensive rating at 110.9 points per 100 possessions, and Portland is also facing a Denver team with some exploitable weaknesses. 

Denver is a bottom-five team in 3-point accuracy (31.6 percent) and free-throw volume (16.8 attempts per game) on the offensive end this season. On defense, the Nuggets are No. 24 in the NBA in 2-point shooting allowed (53.6 percent), and Denver ranks just No. 27 in the league with 4.1 blocked shots per game.

How to make Blazers vs. Nuggets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 216 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Nuggets vs. Blazers? And which side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.