Longtime rivals will meet on Monday Night Football at Raymond James Stadium. The New Orleans Saints will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second matchup of the season between the clubs. Tampa Bay won on the road in Week 2, with New Orleans looking to return the favor. The Saints are 4-8 overall and the Buccaneers lead the NFC South despite a disappointing 5-6 mark.
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Tampa. Caesars Sportsbook lists Tampa Bay as a three-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 41 in the latest Buccaneers vs. Saints odds. Before locking in any Saints vs. Buccaneers picks or NFL bets, you should check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 155-110 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
- Buccaneers vs. Saints spread: Buccaneers -3
- Buccaneers vs. Saints over/under: 41 points
- Buccaneers vs. Saints money line: Bucs -170, Saints +143
- NO: Saints are 4-8 against the spread this season
- TB: Under has hit in nine of 11 Bucs games
- Buccaneers vs. Saints picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Saints can cover
New Orleans hasn't lit up the scoreboard on offense this season, but the Saints do rank in the top ten of the NFL with 19 passing touchdowns and 6.6 net yards per pass attempt. Andy Dalton ranks in the top tier of the league with a 95.0 passer rating and 7.5 yards per attempt, and the Saints are protecting Dalton with a sack rate below 5% for the season. New Orleans converts red zone chances into touchdowns on almost 57% of opportunities, an above-average figure, and Tampa Bay has not created a great deal of havoc this season, forcing only 11 turnovers.
On defense, the Saints have allowed only 80 points in the last five games, with New Orleans ranking well above the league average in total defense, first downs allowed, sacks, passing yards allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, completion rate allowed, yards allowed per pass attempt, and third-down efficiency allowed. Tampa Bay also ranks last in the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and yards per carry, giving the Saints a clearer path to defensive success. See which team to pick here.
Why the Buccaneers can cover
Tampa Bay is facing a New Orleans defense that has notable shortcomings. The Saints have the fewest takeaways (seven) and the fewest interceptions (two) in the NFL this season. That lack of aggression should play into Tampa Bay's hands, and New Orleans is also below-average against the run with 1,549 rushing yards allowed. The Saints are below the NFL median in allowing only 23.3 points per game, and Tampa Bay has the fewest turnovers (nine) and interceptions (three) on offense.
The Buccaneers struggle to run the ball this season, but Tom Brady leads an attack that is in the top five in passing yards. Brady is No. 2 in completions, No. 4 in passing yards, No. 1 in sack rate, and No. 1 in interception rate among individual quarterbacks this season and has at least 240 passing yards in nine consecutive games. See which team to pick here.
How to make Buccaneers vs. Saints picks
The model has broken down Monday Night Football's Saints vs. Buccaneers matchup from all angles. It is leaning Under the total, with the model projecting 40 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. See who it is at SportsLine.
So who wins Saints vs. Buccaneers on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Saints vs. Buccaneers spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 155-110 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.