The picks were better last week, but how could they not be after the disaster of the week before?
After going 4-10 against the spread in Week 12, I went 9-7 last week against the spread and straight up. I have a good feeling that it's turning around.
Too bad there are only four more weeks to go.
That makes it more critical to have winning weeks. This is a tough week with a lot of big games with meaning. I love the Ravens-Bills, Chiefs-Patriots and 49ers-Saints games. All are big.
I like the underdog in one of those games to win outright.
Let's hope the first full week of December games will help me continue my surge.
Time is running out.
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+3)
The Cowboys were bad last time out against the Bills at home, while the Bears impressed in beating the Lions. Mitch Trubisky has been better the past few games, and he will have success against the Dallas secondary. The Bears defense will be challenged here, but I think they will be up to it. The Bears will win a low-scoring game.
Pick: Bears 20, Cowboys 16
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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
These two are playing a game where one coach (Ron Rivera) is already fired and Atlanta's Dan Quinn could follow after the season. Both teams have been major disappointments. With both defenses having issues, this could be high scoring. The Falcons had offensive line issues last week, but they will play better this week. Falcons take it
Pick: Falcons 31, Panthers 27
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Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+5.5)
This is one of the best games of the week. The Ravens are rolling and they are the best team in the league right now, but this will be a big proving game for the Bills. Can that defense slow Lamar Jackson? Will Josh Allen outplay him? I think this will be close with both quarterbacks playing well. Upset special.
Pick: Bills 21, Ravens 20
Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Battle of Ohio doesn't mean much this time, with two teams basically playing out the string. The Browns lost last week at Pittsburgh, while the Bengals beat the Jets. Andy Dalton did some good things being back in as the starting quarterback, but this will be different. The Browns will show up in front of the home fans – even if it means little.
Pick: Browns 21, Bengals 13
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-13)
The Redskins impressed last week in upsetting the Panthers on the road, but this is a big step up and they are on the road for a second straight week. The Packers seemed to find something on offense in the victory over the Giants, and that will carry over here. Aaron Rodgers has another big day.
Pick: Packers 28, Redskins 10
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9.5)
The Broncos won in Drew Lock's first start last week, but this will be his first road start. That will be a challenge against an improving Houston defense. The Texans lit up the Patriots last week, and Deshaun Watson will build on that. Texans take it.
Pick: Texans 26, Broncos 13
Detroit Lions (+13) at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are coming off a Monday night loss, so they are playing on a short week, while the Lions have added rest after playing on Thanksgiving. It won't matter. Minnesota's defense, which was bad against Seattle, will play better here against David Blaugh. The Vikings get back on track.
Pick: Vikings 27, Lions 17
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
This is one of the best games of the week, but the 49ers are playing a second consecutive road game across the country, which will be challenging. The Saints played better on defense against Atlanta last time out, but this will be about Drew Brees against the 49ers defense. I think Brees gets the best of it at home.
Pick: Saints 22, 49ers 17
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5)
These two have showed some life the past month, although the Jets are coming off a horrible loss to the Bengals last week. The Dolphins impressed in beating the Eagles last week. The Dolphins are playing hard, but with the Jets back home I think they get back on track. Sam Darnold rebounds from a bad game last week.
Pick: Jets 23, Dolphins 13
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
The Colts didn't look good in losing to the Titans last week. The Bucs have impressed the past two weeks as their defense has made strides. With Jacoby Brissett not playing well, I think the Bucs will pull find a way to pull this one out.
Pick: Bucs 27, Colts 21
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a game between two disappointing teams. The Jaguars are wisely going back to Gardner Minehew at quarterback, which should give them some spark. The problem is the offensive line. I think Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will be all over Minshew. The Chargers will win a low-scoring game.
Pick: Chargers 19, Jaguars 14
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Steelers would be in the playoffs if they started today, which is impressive considering all the injuries. With Devlin Hodges starting again at quarterback, I think this will be a run game for the Steelers with Bennie Snell. The Cardinals are awful on defense, which will show up. Steelers win it.
Pick: Steelers 24, Cardinals 14
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3)
This should be a fun rematch of the AFC Championship Game from last January. The Patriots are struggling on offense, but I don't think that will be the case here. Look for Tom Brady to change that in this one. I think he will outplay Patrick Mahomes as the Patriots win an important game.
Pick: Patriots 31, Chiefs 27
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (+2.5)
The Titans are playing consecutive road games, and this is a classic sandwich game between the Colts and the Texans. That makes it a be-careful game, which is why the Raiders will find a way to win it. Look for Derek Carr to play big here as the Raiders stay alive.
Pick: Raiders 27, Titans 23
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+1)
The Seahawks impressed Monday night beating the Vikings, but now must go out on the road for a tough division game on a shortened week. That's hard to do. The Rams have come to life on offense the past few games and I think that will continue. Seattle's defense has been OK, but not in this one. Rams take it.
Pick: Rams 28, Seahawks 25
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
The Eagles were terrible in losing on the road to the Dolphins last week, but they get a bad Giants team at home to turn things around. I think the offense will continue to play well like last week, while the defense will rebound to handle the Giants.
Pick: Eagles 31, Giants 13