The Chicago Bears host the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET in a battle of two clubs looking for their first win of the season after coming up just short in their openers. The Bears are 4.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks as the line continues to rise from an open of 2.5. The over-under for total points scored is 42.5, a slight dip from the initial offering of 43.5. Chicago will attempt to bounce back from an agonizing 24-23 loss to Green Bay in head coach Matt Nagy's debut. The Seahawks, who saw their once-vaunted defense gutted by off-season roster moves, stayed with Denver most of the way before falling 27-24. Before you settle on a side, you need to check out what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.

For "Monday Night Football," history is on his side as he looks to build on a remarkable 10-2 record over the past two seasons in against-the-spread picks involving Seattle. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, he has analyzed all key factors in Seahawks vs. Bears and released a confident point-spread pick, which he's only sharing at SportsLine.

Nagel knows the Bears appeared improved in their preseason games and got even stronger with the late addition of star linebacker Khalil Mack in a trade with Oakland. The opening half of their first regular-season game under Nagy went as well as they could have hoped for. Second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looked comfortable leading the offense to two scoring drives and Mack returned an interception for a touchdown and a 17-0 lead. 

But Chicago's Week 1 performance will be long remembered for what it didn't accomplish -- finishing off the upset as a touchdown road underdog. Instead, the Bears will be remembered for allowing Aaron Rodgers to throw for three second-half touchdowns and pull out an improbable victory on an ailing knee. Chicago finished with 294 yards of total offensive and capitalized on just one red-zone trip in four opportunities.

The Bears must address those leaks against a Seahawks club that is somewhat limited offensively but still capable of big plays with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Wilson threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns in Seattle's 27-24 loss at Denver. He also had two interceptions among three costly turnovers that helped Denver seal the game.

If the Seahawks want to stay within the spread, they'll need to play well defensively. A defense that was ravaged by personnel departures allowed the Broncos to gain 470 yards of total offense, but also managed to pick off three passes from quarterback Case Keenum.

We can tell you Nagel is leaning over for Seahawks vs. Bears, and he has unearthed a critical x-factor that will determine which side of the spread hits hard. He's sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine.

What side of Seahawks-Bears should you back? And what critical x-factor determines the spread? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on Monday, all from the expert who is 10-2 on Seahawks games, and find out.