Women's NCAA basketball bracketology 2023: Virginia Tech rising after huge week, No. 1 seeds stay steady

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There's no trouble in paradise. Since last week's bracketology, Indiana, Stanford and UConn all beat an opponent who entered the game ranked in the AP Poll, solidifying their status as No. 1 seeds.

However, things could not be any more crowded on the No. 2 line. Utah fell on the road against Arizona and nearly followed it up with a stunning defeat at the hands of an Arizona State team that currently sits 0-16 in conference play. That game was tied with fewer than two minutes remaining -- the Utes ultimately won by five.

But the real team shaking things up is Virginia Tech, who picked up a pair of NET top 25 wins against Duke and NC State that sent them flying past several teams, including the Blue Devils and another ACC team in Notre Dame.

The Hokies now have five NET top 25 wins - the only four teams in the country with more are the No. 1 seeds.

There are seven teams (LSU, Utah, Virginia Tech, Iowa, Maryland, Duke and Notre Dame) that look like No. 2 seeds on paper, with the margins razor-thin particularly between the latter five.

It'll make every game down the stretch that extra bit more important. To be, or not to be a No. 2 seed? That is the question.

No. 1 Seeds

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*South Carolina (27-0, 14-0 SEC): NET 1, SOS 28

The title favorites were taken to overtime for the second time this season on Sunday at Ole Miss but outscored the Rebels 9-2 in the extra period to keep their now 33-game winning streak alive. The only games standing between the Gamecocks and an undefeated regular season are at Tennessee (NET: 15) on Thursday and vs Georgia (NET: 38) on Sunday.

*Indiana (26-1, 16-1 Big Ten): NET 4, SOS 26

Fifth-year Hoosier Grace Berger was honored for Senior Day prior to Indiana's Sunday home tilt with Purdue and responded with a double-double. Berger's 14 points and season-high 10 assists guided the team to an 83-60 victory. Indiana has now clinched at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season title and will face their toughest test so far at Iowa on Sunday.

*Stanford (25-3, 13-2 Pac-12): NET 3, SOS 17

Cameron Brink's defensive presence proved the deciding factor in Stanford's 50-47 win against USC on Friday. Brink had six blocks to go with 12 points and 10 rebounds -- her 3.5 blocks per game rank second in all of D-I. But despite USC's status as a projected No. 7 seed, that was just a warmup game. The Cardinal will face three NET top 25 foes (UCLA, Colorado, Utah) over the next six days.

*UConn (24-4, 16-1 Big East): NET 2, SOS 1

The Huskies' last three wins have all come by fewer than 10 points, but the latter two came against Villanova and Creighton, their closest competition in the Big East. With a two-game lead in the Big East, a 10th-straight conference regular-season title is inevitable for UConn. The Huskies are 168-2 in conference games over that span.

No. 2 Seeds

LSU (25-1, 13-1 SEC): NET 5, SOS 77

As Angel Reese goes, so does LSU. Reese has double-doubles in 25 of the Tigers' 26 games this season, and LSU is 25-0 in those games. The only exception came against South Carolina, where Reese uncharacteristically finished with just 16 points and four rebounds. Reese is the only player currently in the top five in D-I in both PPG (23.8, 5th) and RPG (15.5, 2nd).

Utah (23-3, 13-3 Pac-12): NET 8, SOS 19

We've already discussed Utah's tough week, but they still find themselves at No. 6 overall due to their exceptional tournament resume. The Utes have five NET top 25 wins and 10 NET top 50 wins. To have a chance of sneaking up to a No. 1 seed, Utah will need to defend home court against Stanford on Saturday. The Utes were held to a season-low nine assists in their first meeting with the Cardinal on Jan. 20.

Virginia Tech (22-4, 12-4 ACC): NET 12, SOS 22

The ACC has fallen victim to the Hokie Pokey, as Virginia Tech has won six straight games and nine of their last 10. Senior Elizabeth Kitley has averaged 19.3 PPG and 3.8 BPG over the current win streak, including a season-high seven swatted shots in their most recent victory over NC State. But to hold onto their No. 2 seed, Virginia Tech will likely need to win at North Carolina on Thursday. At home on New Year's Day, VT won the matchup by just three points.

Iowa (22-5, 14-2 Big Ten): NET 6, SOS 25

Iowa took care of business last week, taking down Wisconsin and Nebraska by a combined 50 points. Now, the nation's premier offensive juggernaut gets the Big Ten's other top squads (at Maryland on Tuesday, vs. Indiana on Sunday) in a week that will go a long way in determining their seeding for both the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.

No. 3 Seeds

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Maryland (22-5, 13-3 Big Ten): NET 14, SOS 13

The Terrapins' hopes of taking down Iowa on Tuesday may lie on their ability to get off to a good start. In their 96-82 loss in Iowa City on Feb. 2, Maryland trailed 29-18 after the first quarter. It's been a running theme as of late: In each of Maryland's last three games, they've trailed by multiple possessions after the first 10 minutes. The Terps have rebounded to win all of those games, but Caitlin Clark won't be as forgiving.

*Duke (23-4, 13-3 ACC): NET 9, SOS 15

Duke and Notre Dame have nearly identical tournament resumes. They are tied for first place in the ACC at 13-3 and are each 3-3 against NET top 25 opponents. Duke has an extra NET top 50 win and a head-to-head victory, but the Irish have the best overall win against UConn. Who the committee ultimately favors could be very important come Selection Sunday. We'll get a better idea of where each team stands during the second (and final) top 16 reveal on Thursday.

Notre Dame (22-4, 13-3 ACC): NET 7, SOS 43

Olivia Miles' overtime game-winner against Louisville last Thursday brought flashbacks of Arike Ogunbowale's buzzer-beater to win the 2018 National Championship. Miles (18 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists) came an assist shy of a triple-double, but I'm sure her teammates didn't mind her keeping that one for herself. Fans won't have to wait long for a rematch as Louisville gets their shot at revenge at home on Sunday.

Michigan (20-6, 10-5 Big Ten): NET 16, SOS 14

With a 10-0 record against teams ranked between 26-50 in the NET, there's no doubt Michigan can handle their business against strong teams, the type they might meet in the first weekend of the tournament. But for Michigan to advance past the Sweet Sixteen, they'll need to beat a more elite type of team. The Wolverines are 0-5 against NET top 25 teams and get their last crack in the regular season against rival Ohio State (NET: 18) Monday night.

No. 4 Seeds

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*Texas (21-7, 12-3 Big 12): NET 10, SOS 36

The Longhorns had no trouble with bubble team West Virginia in their only matchup since my previous update, nearly doubling the Mountaineers' rebounding total (53-27) in a 74-48 victory. Texas is 19-4 with point guard Rori Harmon in the lineup this season. Harmon (7.0 APG) is one of only six players in the country averaging at least seven assists per game.

Oklahoma (22-4, 12-3 Big 12): NET 33, SOS 59

The Sooners crack the top 16 in my projections this week and find themselves tied atop the Big 12 with their rival Longhorns, who Oklahoma will host on Saturday. Guard Taylor Robertson set the career record for most made three-point field goals earlier this season and is making 44.1% of her attempts this season. Only Iowa scores more points per game than Oklahoma this season. The Sooners have gone over 80 in six straight contests.

Villanova (23-5, 14-3 Big East): NET 11, SOS 57

The Wildcats fell to UConn on Saturday but Maddy Siegrist preserved her streak of scoring at least 20 points in all 28 games this season. The last player to score 20+ in every game of a season was Kelsey Plum for Washington in 2016-17. Vilanova closes out the regular season at home against DePaul and Providence this week, and will want a third go at UConn in the Big East Tournament.

Colorado (21-6, 12-4 Pac-12): NET 21, SOS 18

The Buffs hold onto the final spot in the projected top 16, which means they'd be the final team to host games in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Coming off their lowest scoring total of the season in a 61-42 loss at Arizona, leading scorer Quay Miller will need a big game against Stanford's stout interior defense on Thursday.