The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Pittsburgh Panthers square off in a 2023 First Four matchup to lock down the No. 11 seed on Tuesday night. Pittsburgh is in the Big Dance for the first time since 2016. Mississippi State, meanwhile, last made it in 2019. The Panthers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Meanwhile, the Over is 6-2 in Bulldogs' last eight NCAA Tournament games. The winner advances to face No. 6 seed Iowa State in the Midwest Region. 

Tipoff from UD Arena in Dayton is set for 9:10 p.m. ET. The Bulldogs are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 133. Before making any Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament 79-53 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,300 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Pitt vs. Mississippi State in the First Four 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Mississippi State vs. Pitt:

  • Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State: Bulldogs -2.5
  • Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State over/under: 133 points
  • Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State money line: Bulldogs -140, Panthers +118
  • MSST: Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game
  • PITT: Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six Tuesday games
  • Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Pittsburgh can cover 

Junior forward Blake Hinson is a smooth two-way threat in the frontcourt. Hinson has the athleticism to impact the game both offensively and defensively. The Florida native averages 15.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. He's finished with at least 20 points in two of his last five games. On March 4 against Miami (Fla.), Hinson logged 24 points and three boards.

Senior guard Greg Elliott provides the Panthers with a floor-spacing outside threat. Elliott uses his quickness to get past the defender and create clean looks at the rim. The Michigan native puts up 10.4 points, 3.8 rebounds and shoots 42% from beyond the arc. In the Mar. 8 contest against Georgia Tech, he notched 16 points and six rebounds. 

Why Mississippi State can cover

Senior forward DJ Jeffries is a stout option on the court for the Bulldogs. Jeffries plays above the rim with ease and owns plenty of bounce. The Mississippi native averages 8.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. On Mar. 4 against Vanderbilt, he amassed 17 points and 11 boards.

Senior guard Dashawn Davis has been a solid defensive player who has a knack for steals. Davis plays with outstanding awareness and anticipation, averaging 1.7 steals with 8.5 points and 3.5 assists per contest. The New York native has put up double-digit points in 10 games this season. In his last outing, Davis finished with 13 points and two steals against Alabama

How to make Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh picks

The model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 135 points. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Pitt vs. Mississippi State? And which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.