The No. 21 San Diego State Aztecs and the Boise State Broncos renew their Mountain West Conference rivalry when they meet in a crossover matchup on Friday. The Aztecs (10-1, 6-1), who are looking for their first West Division title since 2019, have won three in a row since losing 30-20 to Fresno State on Oct. 30. The Broncos (7-4, 5-2), who have won four Mountain Division titles in a row, excluding 2020 when the conference had just one division due to COVID-19, are in a three-way tie for first in the division. San Diego State would win the West division with a victory. Boise State needs a victory and an Air Force loss to UNLV to win the Mountain division.

The game from Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, Calif., is slated to kick off at noon ET on CBS. The Broncos are favored by three points in the latest Boise State vs. San Diego State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 44.5. Before making any San Diego State vs. Boise State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

LIVE updates: Follow along on Friday with all the Aztecs vs. Broncos action at this link here

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on a 39-25 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Boise State vs. San Diego State and it just locked in its CFB picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's CFB picks. Here are the FBS college football lines and trends for Boise State vs. San Diego State:

  • Boise State vs. San Diego State spread: Boise State -3 
  • Boise State vs. San Diego State over-under: 44.5 points 
  • Boise State vs. San Diego State money line: Boise State -150, San Diego State +130
  • BSU: The Broncos are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game 
  • SDSU: The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs
Featured Game | San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos

Why Boise State can cover

The Broncos rushing attack is powered by sophomore running back George Holani, who has carried 99 times for 499 yards and one touchdown. He has rushed for 100 yards or more in each of the past three games, including a 21-carry, 117-yard performance at No. 23 Fresno State on Nov. 6. He followed that up with 102 yards rushing on 20 carries (5.1 average) in a 23-13 win over Wyoming. Last Saturday, he carried 14 times for 114 yards against New Mexico.

Defensively, Boise State is led by junior safety JL Skinner, who has posted a team-high 83 tackles, including 62 solo. He has three pass breakups and two interceptions, and has forced two fumbles and recovered three. In last week's win over New Mexico, he made nine stops, including five solo. As a sophomore, he started all six games he appeared in, making 37 tackles, including 24 solo, with one interception he returned for a 21-yard touchdown.

Why San Diego State can cover 

Junior wide receiver Jesse Matthews is having a solid season, and leads the Aztecs with 30 receptions for 267 yards (8.9 average) and five touchdowns. Last week at UNLV, he had his best game of the season. He caught a career-high nine passes for 75 yards (8.3 average) and three touchdowns. Matthews is the first Aztec player since the New Orleans Bowl in 2011 to record three touchdown receptions in a game.

Defensively, junior safety Patrick McMorris has been dominant. In last week's win at UNLV, he recorded 12 tackles, including six solo, and knocked down one pass. For the year, he leads the team in tackles with 74, including 45 solo, with eight pass breakups, one interception for 16 yards and one fumble recovery. McMorris also had a 12-tackle performance in a 19-13 double-overtime win at San Jose State on Oct. 15, which included six solo stops and three pass breakups.

How to make Boise State vs. San Diego State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 42 combined points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the model's SDSU vs. Boise State pick at SportsLine

So who wins Boise State vs. San Diego State? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Boise State vs. San Diego State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished the past five-plus years up nearly $3,700 on its FBS college football picks, and find out.