One of the appeals of the quarterback position is long-term or year-over-year stability. If you have a young elite quarterback today, you're more likely to have one in one year, five years, or even 10 years than at any other position. Even with that knowledge, it's pretty remarkable how stagnant the position has been in my Dynasty rankings for the past nine months.
Dating back to last September, only six different quarterbacks have ranked inside my top five: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott. Prescott (No. 8 in May) is the only quarterback from those six to fall out of the top six at any point in the past nine months.
And it extends further than that. Russell Wilson (No. 16 in January) is the only quarterback in my current top-12 who has ranked outside of the top-15 at any point in the last nine months. Guys like Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers have bounced in and out of the top-15, but it's been remarkably stable for the most part. And with the youth in the top five now (none of them are over 26) it might be hard to imagine that changing in the next year.
If it does change, it's likely coming from the class of 2021. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance all had underwhelming rookie years, which may be one of the contributing factors to the top-five not changing. If one of them had had a Justin Herbert-type rookie season, they almost certainly would have forced their way into the discussion. As it is, I didn't really punish them for their rookie struggles, but that's going to change this year. At least two from the trio are likely to either be knocking on the door of the top five or outside the top 15 by this time next year.
Lawrence still ranks the highest of the group but that's almost entirely because of his college pedigree and the fact that he was the first quarterback taken in the draft. Lawrence feels like the least likely 2021 quarterback to fall outside the top-15, but I'm not sure his chances of passing anyone in the top five are that good without a truly elite season.
In terms of strict upside, Fields and Lance have more due to the fact that they could produce as rushers like a Kyler Murray or Jalen Hurts. If they can get to even average NFL passers, they'll be knocking on the top-five door. And the possibility of a Year 2 leap like we saw from Lamar Jackson shouldn't be completely discounted for these two.
Before we get to the actual rankings, one other note about this 2021 class, or at least the top three from the class. They rank higher in one-quarterback leagues than they do in Superflex. That's because in a one-quarterback league floor isn't very important and that is their biggest weakness. I'd move Wilson and Matthew Stafford ahead of them for sure in leagues where you can start more than one quarterback. But even that could change with one month of stellar play from the young guys. For a position that is known for its stability, there's likely to be some real volatility in the first couple of months of the 2022 season thanks to the second-year quarterbacks.
Here's the June edition of my Dynasty quarterback rankings: