Major League Baseball's offseason is underway. Soon, the rumor mill will begin to fire up, leading to rampant speculation about where this or that top player is heading. On paper, this looks like a great offseason for reckless conjecture: two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani and Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead an intriguing free-agent class, while a number of additional stars could be made available on the trade market.
For example, consider the likelihood that the San Diego Padres will listen to offers on outfielder Juan Soto. Although Soto remains one of the game's best hitters -- he's sporting a 151 OPS+ since joining the Padres -- he's now just a season away from free agency. The Padres have been unable to extend him, fueling speculation that they could instead trade him this offseason to recoup young talent and gain financial flexibility. Soto is projected to make $33 million next season, according to MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration model.
So, just who will employ Soto come Opening Day 2024? Below, CBS Sports has ranked all 30 teams based on our perception of their chances. Bear in mind that this is more of an art than a science, and that a lot can change in a short period of time. As such, treat this for what it is: an entertainment exercise.
Now, let's get to it.
Tier 5: Zero chance
30. Oakland Athletics
29. Kansas City Royals
28. Colorado Rockies
27. Pittsburgh Pirates
26. Miami Marlins
25. Los Angeles Angels
24. Washington Nationals
23. Chicago White Sox
22. Detroit Tigers
We feel confident ruling out these nine teams. Some would be unwilling to pay Soto, even for a year, while others lack the motivation based on their position on the win curve. It would be fun if any of them proved us wrong though.
Tier 4: Close but something's off
21. Houston Astros
20. Atlanta Braves
19. Milwaukee Brewers
18. St. Louis Cardinals
17. Minnesota Twins
16. Baltimore Orioles
15. Seattle Mariners
It wouldn't shock us if any of these clubs ventured into the Soto waters. From where we're sitting, they just aren't optimal fits for this or that reason. The Astros, for example, don't have much of a farm system remaining and have signaled that they intend to make large financial commitments to keep Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. That may limit their ability to make another addition of Soto's caliber. The Mariners, meanwhile, need to do better than they did last winter -- we're just not sure they'll aim as high as Soto to do it. And so on and so forth with the other teams listed above. Again, we're not saying it's impossible; we just think it's unlikely.
Tier 3: Worth thinking about it
14. Philadelphia Phillies
13. Toronto Blue Jays
12. Cleveland Guardians
11. Tampa Bay Rays
10. Texas Rangers
9. Cincinnati Reds
Here you have a few large-market teams who aren't great positional fits and three small-market teams with the prospect means to get a deal done. In each case, the club could probably make it work if they really wanted to -- even if it would mean shuffling their previous plans. We would love to see the Rays, Guardians, or Reds pull off an updated version of the Matt Holliday-to-Oakland trade: acquire the star outfielder now and reap the benefit of having them in the lineup until either next summer (when you trade him again) or next winter (when you recoup the draft pick after he leaves). Is any of that likely? We would venture a guess to say no. As for the Rangers, they've been no strangers to splashy or costly additions; Soto isn't the ideal fit for them positionally (they have a loaded outfield already), but who is to say that stops them from at least looking into the possibility?
Tier 2: The rest of the NL West
8. Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
6. San Francisco Giants
Generally, we believe in taking the best offer regardless of where it comes from. Still, we can envision the Padres ruling out the rest of the NL West as suitors. San Diego's roster will still be built to win, and general manager A.J. Preller would be doing himself no favors if he made a division foe stronger. If Preller is open to a deal within the West, all three of these teams make sense.
We've arrived at the final tier. To honor this momentous occasion, let's break down each of our top five teams in paragraph form.
Tier 1: The favorites
5. San Diego Padres
Inertia is a powerful force, and that may explain why some front-office sources have expressed skepticism to CBS Sports that Soto gets moved this winter. The Padres, they've reasoned, could always deal Soto at the deadline if another season goes south. We will note that there might be other financial motivations at play that compel the Padres to clear out some payroll.
4. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox just installed Craig Breslow as their new top baseball operations decision maker. It's anyone's guess what he intends to do this winter. Adding Soto to Boston's lineup would be one splashy way to announce his arrival. The Red Sox certainly have the prospects and financial might to make it happen, although it would be a step away from shoring up a poor defensive unit.
3. Chicago Cubs
This may prove to be an overzealous rank, but we've talked ourselves into the Cubs making an aggressive play on Soto (they already made one to land MLB's most-coveted free agent manager). Cody Bellinger could be on his way out this winter, creating an obvious need for another quality left-handed bat. Soto doesn't offer as much defensive flexibility as Bellinger does, but the Cubs should be able to find a way to make it work. The NL Central also seems up for the taking, and there's no reason for Chicago to hang back after playing near the top of the market in recent winters (landing Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, and Seiya Suzuki in the process).
2. New York Mets
The Mets just went through a season that saw them trade away several well-compensated players at the deadline. And yet, we have a hard time believing they'll sit out the top of the market this winter. You don't pay David Stearns serious money if you're content to lose a bunch of games over the next two or three seasons.
1. New York Yankees
At times, it feels like we're legally obligated to rank the Yankees as a top-five potential destination whenever a star player is placed on the trading block. The Yankees need to bolster their lineup this winter to avoid missing the postseason for a second consecutive fall. Soto would certainly help in that respect. The biggest drawback is that Soto isn't a skilled defender, and the Yankees already have one outfielder reserved for DH duty in Giancarlo Stanton. Would they really want to add another? We'll find out soon enough, but there's no excuse for them sitting out completely on this one.
