LoanDepot Park hosts an NL East battle on Friday evening. The Miami Marlins and New York Mets meet in the second game of a four-game series to begin the 2023 campaign. Miami will lean on Jesus Luzardo to start the game in an aim to avenge a season-opening loss. New York will hand the ball to David Peterson on the road.

Caesars Sportsbook lists New York as the -115 money-line favorite (risk $115 to win $100) for this 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7.5 in the latest Mets vs. Marlins odds. Before making any Marlins vs. Mets picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons, and it finished the 2022 MLB season on a 20-14 roll. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Mets vs. Marlins and revealed its predictions and best bets. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's MLB picks. Here are the MLB odds and betting trends for Marlins vs. Mets:

  • Mets vs. Marlins money line: Mets -115, Marlins -105
  • Mets vs. Marlins over/under: 7.5 runs
  • Mets vs. Marlins run line: Mets -1.5 (+143)
  • NYN: The Mets were 50-26 against the NL East in 2022
  • MIA: The Marlins were 34-42 against the NL East in 2022
  • Mets vs. Marlins picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Why you should back the Mets

New York will lean on an impressive starting pitching option on Friday. Peterson takes the ball for the Mets, and he produced a 3.83 ERA with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 2022. Peterson also generated a 3.25 ERA on the road last season, and he excelled against the Marlins with a 2.50 ERA across 18 innings. New York's bullpen is also strong, posting a 3.55 ERA with more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings in 2022.

On offense, the Mets have had success against Miami's Luzardo, including seven runs, 10 hits and five walks in 9.1 innings last season. The Mets also dominated the Marlins in the 2022 season series, winning 13 of 19 matchups, before emerging victorious in Thursday's opener. New York also has the better offense, ranking in the top four of the National League in hits, strikeout avoidance, batting average, runs scored, on-base percentage and OPS in 2022.

Why you should back the Marlins

Miami has home-field advantage on Friday, and the Marlins have excellent team speed. The Marlins led the National League with 122 stolen bases last season, and Miami acquired a top-flight hitter in Luis Arraez. He led the American League with a .316 batting average while earning an All-Star appearance in 2022, and Arraez recorded two hits in the opener on Thursday. Miami can also potentially benefit from the struggles of David Peterson, who posted a 5.13 ERA in the second half of 2022. 

Opponents produced a .783 OPS against Peterson after the All-Star break, including an .861 OPS after September 1. Miami can also take advantage of New York's weakened bullpen in the absence of Edwin Diaz, who has a knee injury and will miss the season. On the pitching side, Miami has a strong option in Jesus Luzardo, who had a 3.32 ERA with 10.76 strikeouts per nine innings in 2022. Luzardo also excelled with a 3.03 ERA after the All-Star break in 2022.

How to make Marlins vs. Mets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the run total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 8.1 runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mets vs. Marlins? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished last season on a roll, and find out.