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Citizens Bank Park showcases a matinee contest in the National League on Thursday. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins in a battle between division rivals. The matchup is the conclusion of a three-game midweek series in Philadelphia. Kyle Gibson is the projected starter for the Phillies, with the Marlins countering with Edward Cabrera on the mound.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Philadelphia as the -170 money-line favorite (risk $170 to win $100) for this 1:05 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is eight in the latest Phillies vs. Marlins odds. Before making any Marlins vs. Phillies picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it is 299-254 on top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the 2021 season, returning over $800 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Marlins vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Marlins vs. Phillies:

  • Marlins vs. Phillies money line: Phillies -170, Marlins +143 
  • Marlins vs. Phillies over-under: 8 runs 
  • Marlins vs. Phillies run line: Phillies -1.5 (+122)
  • MIA: The Marlins are 21-23 in day games 
  • PHI: The Phillies are 22-14 in day games 
  • Marlins vs. Phillies picks: See picks here.
Featured Game | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

Why you should back the Marlins

Miami's run prevention is its strength on Thursday. The Marlins have a bullpen with an ERA under 4.00 this season, and Miami's relievers combine for more than a strikeout per inning in 2022. Philadelphia's offense is filled with power, but the Phillies are below the NL average in doubles, walks and on-base percentage. 

Cabrera is also enjoying success in 2022, and the 24-year-old right-hander has a 2.61 ERA this season. Cabrera maintains a 1.065 WHIP with 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings, and opponents are scuffling to the tune of a .544 OPS against him. In his last outing, Cabrera threw five shutout innings, and he is capable of slowing Philadelphia's offense, even on the road.

Why you should back the Phillies

Philadelphia's offensive projection is quite strong, headlined by the tremendous power in the middle of the team's lineup. The Phillies are also solid in run prevention, however, and this is a friendly matchup. Gibson takes the mound for Philadelphia, and the former All-Star right-hander is allowing a .687 OPS this season. Gibson has a 1.167 WHIP and is issuing only 2.5 walks per nine innings. He is also pitching well lately, posting a 2.87 ERA in the last five starts, and Gibson owns a 2.89 ERA in three starts against the Marlins this season. 

Behind him is a stout bullpen that ranks in the top five of the NL in wins above replacement, producing more than a strikeout per inning and posting a top-five home run rate allowed. Miami's lineup has clear holes as well, with the Marlins ranking last in the NL in walks and in the bottom five of the league in runs scored, hits, doubles, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, triples, strikeout avoidance and total bases in 2022.

How to make Marlins vs. Phillies picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the run total, projecting 8.8 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Marlins vs. Phillies? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of Marlins vs. Phillies you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.