The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees will meet in a rematch of the 2022 ALDS on Monday evening. Cleveland won two of the first three games of that series, but New York won the final two games to advance to the ALCS. The Yankees are coming off a series win over Baltimore, while Cleveland salvaged its series against Seattle with a 7-6 win in 12 innings on Sunday.

First pitch at Progressive Field is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. The Guardians are -155 favorites (risk $155 to win $100) and the over/under is 7.5 in the latest Guardians vs. Yankees odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Yankees vs. Guardians picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons, and it finished the 2022 MLB season on a 20-14 roll. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Yankees vs. Guardians and revealed its predictions and best bets. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's MLB picks. Here are the MLB odds and betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees:

  • Yankees vs. Guardians money line: Cleveland -155, New York +130
  • Yankees vs. Guardians over/under: 7.5 runs
  • Yankees vs. Guardians run line: Cleveland -1.5 (+150)
  • CLE: The Guardians are 7-3 in their last 10 April games
  • NYY: The Yankees are 9-3 in their last 12 games at Cleveland
  • Yankees vs. Guardians picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees

Why you should back the Guardians

This is a major pitching mismatch, as Cleveland's Shane Bieber has already gone six strong innings in both of his starts this season. He has only allowed three combined runs in those games after posting a 2.88 ERA during the 2022 regular season. Bieber started a pair of games in the playoffs last year as well, finishing with a 2.03 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

Meanwhile, New York's Domingo German allowed four earned runs across 4.2 innings against Philadelphia in his first start of the season. He has struggled against Cleveland during his career, going 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in four starts. The Guardians ranked seventh in the MLB in team batting average (.254) last year, putting them well ahead of New York at No. 15 (.241). 

Why you should back the Yankees

Despite a tough start this season, German had a solid 2022 campaign, finishing with a 3.61 ERA across 14 starts. He is backed up by one of the best lineups in the majors, led by reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge. He set an AL record with 62 home runs in 2022, and he blasted two homers against Baltimore on Sunday to give him four overall this season. 

Judge homered to center field in the third inning on Sunday and then reached the bullpens in the eighth inning of a 5-3 win. First baseman Anthony Rizzo and right fielder Franchy Cordero each had multiple hits for the Yankees in their sixth win of the campaign. They have won nine of their last 12 games in Cleveland, giving them confidence heading into this matchup. 

How to make Guardians vs. Yankees picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the run total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 8.4 runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Yankees vs. Guardians? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished last season on a roll, and find out.