Oriole Park at Camden Yards hosts a matchup between division rivals on Thursday afternoon. The Baltimore Orioles welcome the New York Yankees to town for the final game of a four-game set. New York brings baseball's best record to the table at 28-9, and the Yankees look for a sweep of the Orioles with a win. Baltimore is 14-24 overall this season and aiming to stop a six-game losing skid.
Caesars Sportsbook lists New York as the -210 money-line favorite (risk $210 to win $100) for this 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is eight in the latest Yankees vs. Orioles odds. Before making any Orioles vs. Yankees picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and it is off to a profitable start to the 2022 season. It's on a 33-25 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks through six weeks, returning over $300 for $100 players. Anyone following it has seen some huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Yankees vs. Orioles and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several MLB odds and trends for Orioles vs. Yankees:
- Yankees vs. Orioles money line: Yankees -210, Orioles +180
- Yankees vs. Orioles over-under: 8 runs
- Yankees vs. Orioles run line: Yankees -1.5 (-125)
- Yankees vs. Orioles Sox tickets: See tickets at StubHub
- NYY: The Yankees are 14-5 in road games
- BAL: The Orioles are 9-10 in home games
Why you should back the Yankees
New York's offense garners plenty of attention, especially with three-time All-Star Aaron Judge leading the American League in home runs and total bases. The Yankees are in the top three in almost every major offensive category among AL teams, signaling a strong overall output, but New York is also good in run prevention. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery gets the start on Thursday, and he has a 3.06 ERA with 29 strikeouts and only eight walks in seven starts. Over the last four seasons, Montgomery averages 9.1 strikeouts and only 2.5 walks per nine innings. In 2022, he has a 2.21 ERA on the road, and left-handed hitters have a hideous .316 OPS against Montgomery.
When he leaves the action, Montgomery can hand the ball to the best bullpen in the American League. New York's relievers lead the AL in wins above replacement, ERA (2.47), strikeout rate (9.48 per 9 innings) and home run rate (0.45 per 9 innings) this season, with the Yankees ranking No. 2 in ground ball rate at 48.6 percent.
Why you should back the Orioles
Baltimore has offensive strengths, including a top-five mark in the American League with 59 doubles in 2022. The Orioles are also above-average in generating stolen bases (21), but Baltimore's best path to success in run prevention on Thursday. 27-year-old left-hander Bruce Zimmermann is set to start for Baltimore, and he has a 2.72 ERA in seven starts this season. Zimmermann has 32 strikeouts and only nine walks, with left-handed hitters scuffling to a .441 OPS against him.
Zimmermann also has a stellar 1.80 ERA at home, and Baltimore's bullpen is off to an impressive start. The Orioles are No. 2 in the American League in wins above replacement for relievers, and Baltimore's bullpen has an outstanding 3.38 ERA. Orioles relievers also have a 50.3 percent ground ball rate, which leads the American League.
How to make Orioles vs. Yankees picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 8.9 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
Who will win Yankees vs. Orioles? And which team has all the value on the money line? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.