During the summer just after the draft, version 1.0 of my first stab at a 2024 NBA mock draft had G League Ignite's Matas Buzelis at No. 1. Earlier this fall, my first run of prospect rankings had Kentucky's Justin Edwards -- fresh off an electric performance for UK in its trip to Canada -- in the top spot. And today? Well, today, in version 2.0 of my mock draft heading into the winter months, there's a new king at the top: USC's Isaiah Collier.
It's not that I change my mind frequently -- when it comes to evaluating I'm ashamed to admit I'm notoriously hard-headed and slow to change my mind -- it's that the top of the upcoming class in particular thus far appears to be a wide-open race. There is not a no-doubt-about-it No. 1 in 2024 like there was in 2023 with Victor Wembanyama. There's a handful of players who you could make a case for as No. 1 in the upcoming class, and a lot is up in the air. So with so much uncertainty and so much time ahead before the draft next summer, NBA teams are in intel gathering mode to see how the season plays out and whether anyone can separate themselves from the pack. Thus far, the only consensus is that there is absolutely no consensus on who the top pick should be.
Keep that in mind as you scan our latest mock below. A lot can change between now and next summer. And a lot likely will change. We'll be as nimble as we can keeping up with how the landscape shifts between now and then. But as things stand now, here's our best guess at surveying the current landscape and projecting how it might unfold.
Let's get to the projections, which at this point in the infancy of the NBA season is more reflective of a Big Board than a true mock, given the likelihood that team order and team needs will change. The draft order for the mock was produced using SportsLine projections.
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
In six games to start the season, Collier leads all freshmen in points per game while putting up averages of 18.2 points, 4.0 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game -- shooting in the process a cool 41.2% from 3-point range. His dynamism as a downhill creator and outside shooter is electric and makes him someone who can be a true lead guard at the NBA level like he is with USC.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Edwards hasn't taken college hoops by storm thus far like I thought he might after starring for UK during the summer in its trip to Canada, as he's averaging just 10.0 points and 4.3 rebounds per game and blended in amongst a talented and young Wildcats squad. Still, 6-foot-8 wings who can create, defend and bring length to a valuable position are immensely in need, and the Spurs could use a player of his type to continue stacking talent around Victor Wembanyama.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
 
Ron Holland
PF
G League Ignite
• 6'6"
/ 204 lbs
Holland finished as the No. 1 player in the 247Sports recruiting rankings and has put on a show out of the gates for G League Ignite this season as a scorer, showing immense improvement as a well-rounded offensive weapon. The combo forward brings a blend of power and explosiveness to the table and has a real chance to be the No. 1 pick next summer.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
 
Alex Sarr
C
France
• 7'1"
/ 217 lbs
The former Overtime Elite prospect is thriving overseas with the Perth Wildcats in the NBL's Next Stars program and has thus far seemingly made the leap into the No. 1 pick conversation. He has elite size at and projects as a stable defender who can use his length to his advantage. If the offense can improve and the shot can show up consistently, he could prove a steal at No. 4.
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 1 - Pick 5
If there's one franchise that has proven it will draft for talent and not based on need, it's OKC, making Castle a potential fit here at No. 5. He's someone who I think will emerge as a potential top-10 talent by this time next year, and while he's more of a combo guard than a true lead guard, his do-it-all ability with his frame could be a nice building block as the Thunder tool around SGA and Chet Holmgren.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
 
Matas Buzelis
PF
G League Ignite
• 6'8"
/ 209 lbs
In a class short on projected star power, Buzelis presents arguably the highest ceiling case of anyone with a frame nearly 7-feet tall to pack inside a small forward's body. He's what you'd want if you built a modern-day wing in a lab, and his inside-out game is polished beyond his years.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Clingan's decision to not enter the draft process in 2023 was among the more surprising developments of the cycle, as some in the scouting community (hand up!) saw him as a mid-to-late first-round pick. In a weaker 2024 draft, Clingan has the potential to parlay an already-strong sophomore season into a top-10 selection in the draft. He's an elite center prospect who should see a big role with Adama Sanogo moving on from UConn.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Baylor has made a habit of producing NBA talent of late under Scott Drew, and Walter figures to be next in line for the Bears. A top-10 talent in the 2023 recruiting class, he's a power wing who can create and score, and he's shown himself in the early part of this season already to be a big-time shot maker with consistent ability to hit from 3-point range.
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From
Brooklyn Nets
Round 1 - Pick 9
 
Izan Almansa
PF
G League Ignite
• 6'10"
/ 216 lbs
Almansa dropped his first double-double of his young G League Ignite career this week and has progressed nicely after a promising few years with Overtime Elite. He has great size and the smarts to be an impactful player at 6-foot-10 who plays like a big forward with center size.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Filipowski is a former five-star recruit who surprisingly came back to school for a sophomore season to build off a spectacular freshman campaign. After leading Duke in points and rebounds he already looks like the alpha on a talent-heavy Blue Devils team as a polished scorer and advanced facilitator for his position.
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From
Toronto Raptors
Round 1 - Pick 11
Alexander tested the NBA Draft waters and showed well at the combine before returning to Creighton. With Ryan Nembhard off to Gonzaga, he has improved dramatically as a lead guard and is shouldering a significant role on both ends for a really good Bluejays team.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 12
OKC fully leans into the bit of drafting guards from Kentucky to do exactly that again in DJ Wagner. Wagner has come on strong for UK with a combined 50 points and 11 assists in his last two outings, and he looks the part of an NBA combo guard with the ability to score inside and out while adding playmaking.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Jones averaged a double-double at Weber State last season and translated that into meaningful production at the NBA Draft Combine. He has picked up where he left off with career-best numbers as a scorer, 3-point shooter and rebounder, as well. He has a quirky game that fits into the NBA and has thrust himself into the first-round discussion.
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From
Dallas Mavericks
Round 1 - Pick 14
Baylor might have two lottery picks in the aforementioned Walter and a surprising riser in big man Yves Missi. Missi has impressed out of the gate with his 7-foot frame, and his fluidity and defensive impact has been apparent for the Bears.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
 
Nikola Topic
PG
Serbia
• 6'6"
/ 201 lbs
Topic has validated first-round interest with a strong start to the season for Mega Mis. A lead guard, he is averaging 18.8 points and 7.0 assists per game in the Adriatic League with a wonderful blend of size, skill, scoring and playmaking to project forward.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Freshman guards rarely get major run at Kansas under Bill Self, but Jackson has already proven to be an exception, earning a starting spot out of the gate for a deep and veteran-heavy KU team. Next to Dajuan Harris, his peripherals have looked promising so far, though I'd like him to shoot it more consistently in the role he's currently serving in.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
The younger brother of OKC star Jalen Williams, Cody Williams is similar to his brother in that he's a long wing with good defensive upside and playmaking ability. Williams emerged as a borderline top-25 player in his class to a top-five ranked player, and he is on track to be in the lottery discussion with his long frame, shooting ability and defensive prowess.
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From
Sacramento Kings
Round 1 - Pick 18
 
Zaccharie Risacher
SF
France
• 6'9"
/ 204 lbs
Momentum for Risacher has cooled in recent months after struggling during the summer but his stock appears to be back on the rise after a steady start out of the gate for Bourg this season where he is averaging 10.0 points, 3.6 rebounds and shooting 33% from 3-point range. He still projects as something of a project but his big frame and movement skills for an 18-year-old are worthy enough traits to warrant consideration in the teens.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Proctor profiles as a potential second-year breakout candidate at Duke, though to this point the production has yet to meet that projection. He has a big frame and good playmaking abilities and I'm keeping hope alive that he develops into a more aggressive scorer. He's still very young and growing into his role.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
After a redshirt season at UConn, Karaban was an unheralded, underrated -- but nonetheless, important -- piece of UConn's title team. This season, he's already proven that to be right, showing off immense shot-making for his position and an improvement in strength that has shown up in his finishing ability.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Klintman was thought to be in the first-round mix this past draft cycle after a promising season at Wake Forest before pulling out and committing to play in the Australian NBL. He'll be 21 by the time of the next draft, but his tools as a combo forward and 3-point shooter are likely to impress teams, even if his counting stats don't pop off the page.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
McCain is a new addition to the first-round here after flashing early as a complementary piece for a loaded Duke team. He's been excellent as a catch-and-shoot weapon and is hitting nearly 50% of his 3-point attempts thus far on the year.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
I'm a sucker for jumbo wings who can attack closeouts, so of course Mitchell -- ranked 28th on my Big Board -- is going to get some love here. I've been impressed with the few times he has taken defenders off the dribble and attacked the rim, and his go-go-gadget arms have been especially useful to put to use on defense as well. Love his role-playing skill set.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
I wanted to see some progression from Kugel as a playmaker and facilitator this season to feel validated in having him as a first-rounder. I've seen enough to feel good about that for now. His per-40 averages as an assist man are up a smidge from last season, though so, too, are his turnover numbers. He has the profile of a bucket-getting wing who will likely not be needed as a facilitator, but I'm bullish on his prospects for the role he's going to serve in at the NBA level.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Bradshaw has still not played this season for Kentucky as he continues to rehab an injury from the offseason. I'm still holding out hope for him to be a useful piece for a UK team with a thin frontcourt, though, and think he could be a difference-making big at the NBA level. The former five-star recruit is an elite rim-protector who, if healthy, will be a useful big man in the modern NBA with his versatile skill set.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
A torn ACL derailed what might've been a breakout season last year for Brazile, but he is already back and producing at a nice clip for Arkansas. He's a bouncy big who can block shots and play both ends at a high level and has the ability to space the floor as a shooter.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
I've been as impressed as I've been surprised by McCullar thus far this season, as he struggled at the NBA Draft Combine and seemingly squandered a chance to play his way into the first round. He's back this season for Kansas playing his best ball of his career as a triple-double machine who can score, facilitate and rebound. I've long been a McCullar fan and he's made a believer out of me again as a high-level combo guard who can be a role player.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Size is not a skill, but guess what? Skill is skill. And Edey has both. The Purdue big man who won national player of the year last season is, remarkably, playing even better than he did last season for a Boilermakers team now ranked No. 1 in the country. He affects the game with his size and shot-blocking ability and has been an automatic basket when he catches the ball in the post.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Miller is pushing 7-feet and yet plays primarily as a wing for Florida State, bringing intrigue as a jumbo forward who can play outside. He grew up playing guard before hitting the lottery with an insane growth spurt, so his versatility and background is unique.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Efficient scorer, effective rim protector, first-round material. Mara's statistical profile this season may not wow but he's doing a lot in his limited opportunities and his size and length is already plenty impactful.
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