The Milwaukee Bucks bested the Phoenix Suns by a 4-2 series count in the 2021 NBA Finals, and the sides will meet up for the first time since then on Thursday evening. Both are contenders are in 2022, but it's Phoenix that has surged to the league's best record this year at 44-10, while Milwaukee enters this matchup 35-21. Both teams made relatively minor moves at the NBA trade deadline to bolster depth, but nothing that should change the handicapping of this particular matchup.
Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET in Phoenix. Caesars Sportsbook lists Phoenix at -3 in the latest Bucks vs. Suns odds. The over-under for total points is 233, up half a point from the opening line. Before finalizing any Suns vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 65-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Suns, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Suns vs. Bucks:
- Bucks vs. Suns spread: Suns -3
- Bucks vs. Suns over-under: 233 points
- Bucks vs. Suns money line: Suns -150, Bucks +130
- MIL: The Bucks are 15-13 against the spread in road games
- PHX: The Suns are 13-14 against the spread in home games
Why the Bucks can cover
With Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way, Milwaukee is very good on both sides of the floor. The Bucks are scoring nearly 1.13 points per possession, a top-five mark in the NBA, and Milwaukee is in the top five of the league in 3-pointers (14.3 per game) and 3-point accuracy (36.4 percent). The Bucks are also above-average in free-throw attempts (21.6 per game) and ball security (13.7 per game), and Milwaukee also boasts tremendous defensive metrics. Opponents are scoring only 108.6 points per 100 possessions, with Milwaukee allowing only 44.4 percent shooting and 34.2 percent shooting from 3-point range.
The Bucks are No. 6 in the NBA in free-throw attempts allowed (19.8 per game), with top-eight rankings in defensive rebound rate (73.7 percent) and steals (7.8 per game). Milwaukee is also in the top six of the NBA in fast-break points allowed (11.1 per game) and points allowed in the paint (42.7 per game), with Phoenix ranking No. 25 in the league in free-throw attempts on offense.
Why the Suns can cover
Phoenix has to be thinking about getting some measure of revenge after falling to the Bucks last year. The Sun, who have won 14 of their last 15 overall, have won three straight against potential playoff teams as well. They've knocked off the 76ers, Bulls and Wizards in the past five days.
They've also been one of the league's better teams against the spread at 30-24 ATS, with a 28-22 ATS mark when listed as favorites. Devin Booker (25.7 ppg) and Chris Paul (15 ppg, 10.5 apg) lead an elite backcourt. Deandre Ayton (16.1 ppg, 10.4 rpg) should be tough to handle in the post for a Milwaukee team that lacks frontcourt depth at the moment.
How to make Suns vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 228 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Bucks vs. Suns? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
