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The Denver Nuggets have an opportunity to advance to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history when they face the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4 of the 2023 Western Conference finals on Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET. Denver took a 3-0 series lead with a 119-108 road win on Saturday, using a late 13-0 run to take control. Los Angeles can send the series back to Denver and keep its season alive with a win on Monday. The Lakers got past the second-seeded Grizzlies in the opening round before beating the defending champion Warriors in the second round.

Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET from Arena in Los Angeles. Caesars Sportsbook lists Los Angeles as the 3.5-point home favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 225.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Nuggets odds. Before locking in any Nuggets vs. Lakers picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Nuggets spread: Lakers -3.5
  • Lakers vs. Nuggets over/under: 225.5 points
  • Lakers vs. Nuggets money line: Lakers -160, Nuggets +135
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 22-25 against the spread in road games
  • LAL: The Lakers are 27-22 against the spread in home games
  • Lakers vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver was the best team in the Western Conference during the regular season, and it has looked just as impressive during the playoffs. The Nuggets are led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who posted four consecutive triple-doubles before running into foul trouble in Game 3. Regardless, he still finished with 24 points, eight assists and six rebounds, hitting several key shots down the stretch.

Point guard Jamal Murray stepped up with 37 points, seven rebounds and six assists, shooting 15 of 29 from the floor. He is facing a Lakers team that has seemingly run out of steam after having to open their postseason run in the play-in tournament. Los Angeles has lacked the finishing punch so far in this series, and it could be lacking confidence after losing the first three games. See which team to back here.

Why the Lakers can cover

The Lakers have arguably the best defender in the NBA on their side in Anthony Davis. He is averaging 28.7 points and 14.0 rebounds per game in the series, impacting the game in myriad ways, and Davis leads the 2023 NBA playoffs with 14.1 rebounds and 3.1 blocked shots per game. As a team, Los Angeles is giving up only 109.3 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs after posting a top-five defensive rating (111.3) in the NBA after the All-Star break.

The Lakers are giving up only 16.9 free throw attempts per game in the postseason, which improves on an already league-leading mark of 20.8 attempts allowed per game in the regular season. Los Angeles is holding opponents to 43.6% shooting from the field, and the Lakers also play well at home. Though the Lakers ran into a buzzsaw with Murray's hot shooting in Game 3, Los Angeles won its first six playoff games at home and out-scored opponents by more than 17 points per 100 possessions in those contests. See which team to back here.

How to make Nuggets vs. Lakers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 228 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Game 4 of Lakers vs. Nuggets in the NBA Western Conference finals 2023, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has has gone 72-38 on its top-rated NBA picks, and find out.