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The New Orleans Pelicans and the Dallas Mavericks will face off in a Southwest Division clash at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday at American Airlines Center. Dallas is 11-9 overall and 6-3 at home, while the Pelicans are 6-18 overall and 3-10 on the road. Both teams are below .500 against the spread with Dallas coming in at 9-11 ATS and New Orleans at 10-14 ATS.

Dallas is favored by 7.5 points in the latest Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over-under for total points is set at 218. Before entering any Pelicans vs. Mavericks picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 7 of the 2021-22 NBA season up over $1,500 on all top-rated NBA picks this season. It's also on a stunning 117-77 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread that dates back to last season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Pelicans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Pelicans vs. Mavs:

  • Mavericks vs. Pelicans spread: Mavericks -7.5
  • Mavericks vs. Pelicans over-under: 218 points
Featured Game | Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas is coming off one of its best performances in franchise history. The Mavericks set a franchise record when they knocked down 57 of their 83 shot attempts in a 139-107 blowout over New Orleans. They hit 68.7 percent of their shots, besting a previous high of 67.7 percent from 1983.

The Mavericks had lost five of their last six games in November, so they were in desperate need of Wednesday's reset. They made 18 of 34 3-point attempts and were paced by Luka Doncic's 28 points. Dallas has now covered the spread in six of its last nine games and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against a team from the Western Conference.

Why the Pelicans can cover

New Orleans was unable to recover from a slow start on Wednesday, but it should still feel good about its chances heading into this game. The Pelicans had won three of their previous four games and are going to be motivated after losing their first two meetings with Dallas this season. They have been an excellent team in transition, scoring the ninth-most fast break points per game (12.5).

Brandon Ingram has been one of the best players in the NBA this season, averaging 21.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists. Big man Jonas Valanciunas is on a hot streak, scoring 17.6 points and grabbing 10.2 rebounds over his last 10 games. The Pelicans have won two of their last three road games, beating the Jazz and Clippers within the past week.

How to make Pelicans vs. Mavericks picks

The model is leaning under on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Pelicans? And which side of the spread is hitting in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine here to find out, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks